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COMEX gold fell below $4,000 an ounce, extending its decline to four consecutive weeks after sellers rejected a test of the 52-week moving average. "The market is trading on the weak side of the 52-week moving average at $4,255.51, signaling strong long-term selling pressure," James Hyerczyk, a technical analyst and author of two books on technical analysis, said. Spot gold settled last week at $4,088.38, down $67.02 or 1.61 percent, after entering the long-term retracement zone of $4,069.54 to $3,707.82. The weekly low reached $3,959.08, the first test of that zone since gold rallied from a November 2024 bottom of $2,536.85 to a January 2026 peak of $5,602.23. The 50 percent to 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of that range defines the current support band. The June nonfarm payrolls report lands Thursday morning instead of the usual Friday release, with markets closing early for the Independence Day holiday. A strong number would reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative, keeping pressure on the non-yielding asset as Treasury yields climb. A miss would give gold bulls their first opening in a month to argue the tightening cycle is losing economic support. **Thin liquidity amplifies the risk** The holiday schedule compresses the entire payrolls reaction into a few hours before desks go dark Thursday afternoon. Friday markets are closed. When institutional order flow exits, the book thins enough that a single large ticket can move gold several dollars in either direction. "The entire reaction gets compressed into a few hours before the desks go dark," Hyerczyk said. "Traders do not have the luxury of studying the number overnight and adjusting Monday morning. They have to decide Thursday and live with it through a three-day weekend." The 52-week moving average at $4,255.51 now acts as overhead resistance, confirming the downtrend on the weekly swing chart. A trade through $4,891.54 would change the main trend to up, but the market remains in sell-the-rally mode until that level is reclaimed. **Value zone for long-term buyers** The retracement zone at $4,069.54 to $3,707.82 represents a potential accumulation area for passive investors, according to Hyerczyk. The last bottom before gold's sharp rally in late 2025 sits at $3,886.46, making that level the next downside target if selling pressure continues. Central bank purchases continue to provide structural support beneath the market, with official sector buying expected to persist through 2026 as countries diversify reserves. That buying is large in scale, consistent, and not driven by any single jobs report, limiting how far the selloff can extend during periods of macro pressure. Gold at current levels trades roughly 29 percent below its January 2026 all-time high of $5,602.23 and about 6 percent below its 52-week moving average. The metal remains down for four straight weeks, the longest losing streak since the November 2024 bottom. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**President Trump ordered Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to withdraw troops from Syria and Lebanon during a phone call last Thursday, Axios reported, as the 2026 Iran war ceasefire shows signs of unraveling.** The demand from Washington comes roughly 4 1/2 months after the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, a conflict that drew Israeli forces into southern Syria and parts of Lebanon. The US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding to end hostilities, but that ceasefire now appears on the verge of collapse, according to people familiar with the talks. "The withdrawal demand reflects a strategic calculation in Washington that Israel's two-front deployment is complicating ceasefire negotiations," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. "Removing that friction point could be a prerequisite for extending the truce." Israeli troops entered southern Syria after the fall of the Assad regime and have maintained a presence in contested areas of southern Lebanon. The pullback ordered by Trump would affect both theaters simultaneously, a move that could reshape the security landscape across the Levant. The phone call — the first publicly reported direct conversation between the two leaders since the ceasefire was signed — highlights growing friction between Washington and Jerusalem over the pace of de-escalation. Netanyahu's government has argued that a continued military presence in buffer zones is necessary to prevent Iranian-backed militias from regrouping near Israel's borders. Brent crude oil traded near $82 a barrel on Monday, down from intraday highs above $87 reached during the initial weeks of the conflict, as traders priced in a potential de-escalation. Gold held above $2,350 an ounce, reflecting lingering safe-haven demand. The shekel strengthened 0.4% against the dollar on the news, while Tel Aviv's TA-35 index rose 1.2%. The NATO summit in Ankara last week, where Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, added a layer of alliance diplomacy to the withdrawal push. Turkey has been repositioning its strategy in Lebanon after Assad's fall, linking its own stability to the country's future, according to the European Council on Foreign Relations. For Israel, a withdrawal carries domestic political risk. Netanyahu's coalition includes hardline factions that have opposed any territorial concessions in Syria and Lebanon. The prime minister has not publicly responded to Trump's demand, and his office declined to comment on the phone call. The broader risk is that a premature withdrawal could create a security vacuum. The last time Israel withdrew unilaterally from southern Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah quickly filled the void, leading to the 2006 war. A similar dynamic in Syria could allow Iranian-aligned militias to reestablish a foothold near the Golan Heights. The coming weeks will determine whether the ceasefire holds or the region slides back into open conflict. If Israel complies with the withdrawal demand, the US may push for a broader agreement that includes Iranian commitments to curb militia activity in both countries. If not, the fragile truce could collapse, drawing the US and Israel back into a wider war. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*
Gold mining stocks rose across the board July 2, with Gold Fields gaining 5.6%, Newmont Corp. rising 3.8% and Barrick Gold Corp. adding 4.1%. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 2.3% on the session, tracking the spot price of gold at $4,064.27/oz as of 8:05 a.m. ET, according to market data from Alpha Vantage. The metal traded in a range of $3,959.59 to $4,139.76 over the past 24 hours, per Forbes data. Gold has gained 21.56% over the past 12 months from $3,343.47/oz one year ago. The metal remains 25.80% below its 52-week high of $5,477.79 and 23.74% above its low of $3,284.65, data from USA TODAY shows. A week ago, gold traded at $4,009.99/oz, putting prices up 1.35% since then, though it remains 9.29% below the month-ago level of $4,480.33/oz. The rally in mining equities comes as gold holds above the $4,000 threshold, a level that has historically attracted inflows into mining stocks as a leveraged play on bullion. Gold prices are driven by inflation expectations, central bank policy and global economic conditions, with the next catalyst being the Federal Reserve's July meeting. The coordinated advance across precious metals miners suggests broad-based demand rather than company-specific catalysts. Newmont Corp., the world's largest gold miner by market capitalization, has gained alongside peers. Barrick Gold, which rebranded from Barrick Gold Corp. in May and changed its ticker from GOLD to B, has fallen 17.6% year to date even as gold prices remain elevated, creating a 50% gap between its $36.45 share price and Wall Street's average target of $56.08, according to 24/7 Wall St. Gold Fields Ltd., the South Africa-based producer, led the group with its 5.6% advance. The stock has benefited from gold's sustained rally above $4,000/oz, a level first breached in March 2025. The precious metal hit an all-time high of $5,597.23 on Jan. 29, 2026, according to Forbes data. Over the past five years, gold has appreciated 130.37%, outperforming the S&P 500's total return of 73.26% over the same period, per Forbes Advisor data. Central banks globally have been net buyers of gold, diversifying reserves away from the U.S. dollar as trade tensions persist, according to the World Gold Council's central bank survey. The SPDR Gold ETF's 2.3% gain reflects continued investor appetite for gold exposure through liquid, exchange-traded vehicles. The fund, which holds physical gold bullion, is down 6.5% year to date but up 20.5% over the past 12 months. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Gold at around $4,000 an ounce faces a narrow trading range near $4,100 in the second half, with upside to $5,000 if catalysts align, the World Gold Council said. "Gold could resume its upward trend around $4,500 an ounce, but only a strong, clear signal may push it sustainably toward $5,000," Juan Carlos Artigas, head of research at the World Gold Council, said in the mid-year outlook. The metal has fallen 27% from its all-time high above $5,600 in January, its worst quarterly performance in 13 years, as a hawkish Federal Reserve dashed rate-cut expectations and the dollar strengthened. The WGC's proprietary valuation framework suggests gold is reasonably aligned with current macro conditions, implying a range of plus or minus 5% around $4,100 an ounce if conditions hold, according to the report co-authored by Artigas, Taylor Burnette and Fergal O'Connor. The $5,000 ceiling represents a 25% gain from current levels, a move the WGC said would require a worsening economy, renewed geopolitical shock, or a shift in interest-rate expectations. Goldman Sachs projects gold at $4,900 an ounce by end-2026, with central bank demand as the structural anchor, according to Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at the bank. **Central bank buying provides structural support** Central banks have bought an average of 1,000 tonnes per year since 2022, and a record 45% of the 76 institutions surveyed by the WGC expect to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs now expects central banks to average about 60 tonnes per month through 2026, up from its earlier estimate of 29 tonnes under a previous methodology. "Structurally, EM central bank diversification — following the 2022 freezing of Russia's reserves — remains the anchor of our $4,900 an ounce end-2026 forecast," Dart said. The WGC estimates that an additional 20 to 30 tonnes of central bank purchases above the long-term average of about 600 tonnes per year translates to roughly a 1% increase in the gold price, through both direct buying and the positive signal it sends to investors. **India demand faces headwinds from duty hike** India, the world's second-largest gold market with net demand of 800 tonnes per year, has introduced measures that could curb consumption. The government raised the import duty on gold to 15% from 6% in April as part of efforts to conserve foreign exchange reserves amid pressure on the rupee during the US-Iran conflict. The WGC's econometric analysis suggests the duty increase alone will reduce Indian jewelry, bar and coin demand by 50 to 60 tonnes, or about 10% year-over-year. Further economic deceleration could deter Indian consumers from buying on price pullbacks, while defaults on collateralized gold loans could increase supply. **Near-term headwinds and the path to recovery** Gold's decline accelerated in the second quarter, with the metal dropping 16% for its worst three-month stretch since 2013. The CBOE Gold Volatility Index spiked above 50% during the US-Iran conflict before retreating below 30%, though it remains above its 20-year average of 17%. A death cross formed when the 50-day moving average fell below the 200-day moving average, a technical signal that often precedes further declines. The dollar index traded around 101, up about 3% year-to-date, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. Goldman Sachs acknowledged these near-term headwinds but said they are expected to reverse over time. The bank's economists expect the Fed to hold rates steady this year before restarting the easing cycle in the second half of 2027, which would support a gradual rise in ETF positioning. "Over the medium term, risks to our gold price forecast remain skewed to the upside on net," Dart said, pointing to concerns over Western fiscal sustainability as a potential driver of private investor diversification into gold. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Gold fell 1.8% to just above $4,000 an ounce in Asian trading Monday, extending its longest losing streak since August 2023. The decline was driven by a hawkish repricing of the dollar after the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, according to Maybank. "The Fed's priority on controlling inflation is leading the market toward another rate hike later this year," the bank said. Spot gold traded at $4,056 an ounce as of 8:30 a.m. Vietnam time, down more than $32 from Friday's close, Kitco data shows. The metal has now fallen for four consecutive weeks, losing 1.6% in the most recent week alone. US Treasury 10-year yields rose to 4.382%, while the dollar index held at 101.35 points. Gold has erased all its 2025 gains and is now down 6% year-to-date, a sharp reversal from the 60% rally last year. The June non-farm payrolls report, due Thursday before the US Independence Day holiday, will be the next key catalyst for Fed policy expectations. Market participants are pricing in a 60% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates in September, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Wall Street sentiment has turned cautious. Of 18 analysts surveyed by Kitco News, 44% expect further declines this week, while 28% see a rebound and 28% predict consolidation. Among 238 retail investors, 46% were bearish, 37% bullish and 17% neutral. Christopher Vecchio, head of futures and forex strategy at Tastylive, said he has shifted to a bearish view on gold following the Fed's latest policy meeting, after maintaining a neutral stance for the past four months. In Vietnam, SJC gold bars fell 500,000 dong to 145 million-148 million dong an ounce, tracking the global decline. The buy-sell spread stood at 3 million dong. Despite the near-term pressure, major banks including Goldman Sachs and UBS maintain year-end price targets above current levels, implying a potential rebound in the second half of the year. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.