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TTF gas climbs as EU storage sits 12 points below 2025
Edgen Stock·Sep 24 2026, 11:45Share to
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[1] European Gas Prices Rise as Storage Levels Worry Market (https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futur ...)[2] Spain to End Russian LNG Imports From 2027 Amid EU Supply Shift (https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/News ...)[3] Microsoft ends cooperation with ICC over US sanctions (https://tass.com/world/2191999 ...)[4] NATO recon aircraft spotted operating over Black Sea since morning (https://tass.com/world/2192019 ...)[5] Global copper shortage may reach 10 mln metric tons over next decade — expert (https://tass.com/economy/2191985 ...)
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Sep 24 2026, 11:54
Dollar climbs as Fed hike bets build before Trump-Xi summit
The dollar extended its advance Thursday as traders raised the odds of another Federal Reserve rate increase this year, pressuring EUR/USD a week after the central bank delivered its first hike since 2023 and signaled more to come. "The market is repricing the terminal rate, not the direction," said David Lefkowitz, head of US equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. "The debate is how much the Fed has to hike, and that debate is being settled in the dollar's favor right now." Fed funds futures imply the benchmark rate peaks near 4.8% in a little over a year, for total tightening of just over 100 basis points, according to LSEG data. That is a fraction of the 525 basis points delivered in the 2022-2023 cycle, but it is enough to widen the rate gap that has anchored the euro's range all year. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point last week, its first increase since 2023, and signaled another move by year-end. The euro's slide is the cleanest expression of that repricing. Europe's central bank has offered no matching hawkish turn: ECB policymaker Martin Kocher said Thursday the Governing Council will decide on rates "meeting to meeting," language that leaves the deposit rate where it is while the Fed's path steepens. Rate differentials, not growth expectations, are doing the work. ## A summit that cuts both ways Layered on top is the two-day state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who arrived Wednesday evening at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington and meets President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday. The agenda covers trade irritants, artificial intelligence safeguards and the war in Iran, with the two sides agreeing Wednesday to extend a one-year trade truce due to expire Nov. 10 by two months. For currency desks, the summit is a two-sided headline rather than a directional bet. Escalation would feed risk-off flows and add to dollar demand; a conciliatory outcome, particularly any softening on the $14 billion US arms package for Taiwan that Trump has called a "very good negotiating chip," would unwind part of the hike-driven bid. Peak baseline US tariffs reached 145% during last year's trade battle, matched by Chinese levies of 125%, before falling to roughly 47% after the leaders met in South Korea. The dollar's strength carries costs beyond the currency pair. A firmer greenback tightens global financial conditions, weighing on US exporters, emerging-market assets and dollar-denominated commodities. Gold traded muted Thursday as Fed tightening prospects and a decline in oil prices removed two of its supports, while crude eased off highs as trade and peace talks progressed. ## What the next FOMC meeting decides The near-term path hinges on whether the Fed validates the futures curve. Investors are factoring in further increases in 2027, and the current cycle is expected to be short and shallow relative to history: since 1983 the average hiking cycle has run just under two years with rates rising 320 basis points, according to Jefferies equity strategist Jane Gibbons. History offers a caution. The S&P 500 has fallen a median 2.6% in the three months after the first hike of a cycle, based on six cycles since 1994 compiled by LPL Financial, with drawdowns of 8% to 14% in five of them. The 2022 exception was far worse — a 25% peak-to-trough decline — because the pace of tightening, not the first move, broke the market. For EUR/USD, the arithmetic is narrower. The pair stays hostage to the spread between US and euro-area policy expectations until either the Fed's December meeting or a summit deliverable changes the calculus. A truce extension alone removes tail risk without reversing the hike premium; a breakdown in talks would compound it. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Sep 24 2026, 11:44
Serbia's NIS seeks waiver with 6 days left on refinery clock
Serbia's only oil refinery has six days of legal operating room left. NIS, the country's dominant fuel supplier and 56.16% owned by Russia's Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, said Thursday it has filed for a fresh US sanctions waiver to keep running after the current one lapses on September 30. "The regular functioning of the ... oil refinery, and a stable market supply are of crucial importance for maintaining energy stability" in Serbia, NIS said in a statement announcing the application. The numbers behind that statement are unusually concentrated. NIS supplies up to 80% of the Serbian market and operates the Pancevo refinery in northern Serbia, with annual crude processing capacity of 4.8 million tons. The US Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned NIS last October over its Russian ownership, part of a broader campaign against Moscow's energy revenue, and Washington has since granted a series of short-term waivers while pushing for divestment of the Russian stake. Serbia holds 29.9% of NIS; the remainder sits with small shareholders and employees. The timing is what makes the filing consequential. Serbia's energy ministry said the same day it will release roughly 5,000 metric tons of Eurodiesel from state reserves to ease a supply squeeze, with October consumption projected at about 205,000 tons. Companies have stopped importing diesel because of high prices, and logistics costs remain elevated after low water levels on the Danube cut August fuel imports by barge to just 25% to 30% of planned volumes. In August the ministry ordered NIS to lift crude processing from 9,500 tons to 13,000 tons per day and released 23,000 tons of operational reserves to other distributors to offset the import shortfall. A waiver denial would remove the marginal barrel Serbia has been leaning on to plug that gap. ## The sale that has to close before the waiver stops mattering The mechanism Washington has chosen is divestment, not permanent exemption. Hungary's MOL is the named buyer for the Russian stake, and the waivers exist to keep Pancevo running until that transaction completes. That sequencing creates a narrow window: NIS needs crude imports to continue through the sale process, and OFAC needs the sale to be credible enough to justify each extension. Neither side has disclosed a closing date, and the deal's regulatory approvals across multiple jurisdictions remain not yet disclosed. For European refiners, the read-through is about regional product balances rather than Serbian equity risk. NIS shares trade on the Belgrade exchange, a market too small to transmit a meaningful signal to the wider energy complex. The transmission runs through diesel instead. Serbia sits on the southern leg of the Adriatic pipeline system and its Pancevo barrels feed Balkan and broader Danube-basin demand; losing 4.8 million tons of annual refining capacity from an already tight European diesel market would push marginal buyers toward Mediterranean and Italian cargoes. The precedent is instructive. The last time Washington tightened the waiver cycle on a Russian-owned European refiner, the affected operator's crude runs fell before a buyer was found, and regional diesel cracks widened in the interim. Serbia's own August data already shows the pattern in miniature: when imports failed, the state raided reserves and ordered the refinery to run harder. That works once. It does not work if the refinery itself is the constraint. ## What a denial prices in The asymmetry favors a renewal. OFAC has extended repeatedly, and a denial would hand Belgrade a fuel crisis in the middle of a diesel shortage it is already managing with strategic stock. The counterargument is political: each extension weakens the incentive for Gazprom Neft to accept a discounted exit, and the US House passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on September 16, adding a legislative channel for tighter enforcement. The EU, meanwhile, failed to roll over its own Russia asset-freeze regulation on September 14 and settled for a one-week extension, a reminder that allied sanctions discipline is itself under strain. For traders, the position to watch is not NIS equity but the Mediterranean diesel crack and the pace of MOL's filing progress. A renewal on or before September 30 keeps the risk premium contained and leaves the divestment timeline as the only live variable. A denial, or a lapse into a technical gap while paperwork is processed, would force Serbia to source product on the spot market at record prices and would test whether the Balkan supply chain can absorb the loss of its only refinery. Either way, the decision lands within days, and it lands on a market with no spare diesel. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Sep 24 2026, 11:42
Global bond selloff deepens as Japan 10-year yield hits 3.075%
Japanese government bonds fell across the curve on Thursday, driving the 10-year yield up 10 basis points to 3.075%, its highest since 1996, as a bond rout that began in New York spread through every major market and pulled equity futures lower. The move extended a selloff that pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.12% on Wednesday, a 19-year high, after S&P Global's flash U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 57 in September from 53.9 in August — the largest improvement in factory conditions since May 2022. The same report showed average input costs across goods and services surging, leaving investors to read strong growth as a reason for the Federal Reserve to keep policy tight rather than ease. "The market is repricing the entire path of policy, not just the next meeting," said James Okafor, rates strategist at Edgen. "When growth data beats this decisively and price pressures build in the same release, the bond market has no choice but to take the Fed at its word on holding higher for longer." Futures markets now assign a 57% probability that the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at each of its final two meetings of 2026, in November and December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That is up from 38% a week ago. The repricing has been global: Japan's five-year yield climbed about 10 basis points to 2.375% and the 20-year rose a similar amount to 3.915%, with the Tokyo market catching up after the three-day Silver Week holiday. Equities followed the move in yields. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 1% on Wednesday and the Nasdaq fell more than 1%, with only energy and industrials finishing in the green. Stocks slid across the globe in early European trade Thursday and U.S. stock futures pointed lower, as the implications of higher oil prices compounded the pressure from rates. Energy was the strongest sector on Wednesday, lifted by a rise in crude after five consecutive sessions of declines. President Donald Trump said U.S. officials had a "very good meeting" with Iran's delegation at the United Nations on Tuesday, but nothing concrete was announced on a lasting peace or a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which as much as 25% of the world's oil supply passed before the U.S.-Iran war. Higher crude feeds directly into the inflation picture that is already driving yields higher, tightening the squeeze on growth-sensitive sectors. The last time the U.S. 10-year yield traded above 5.12%, in 2007, the S&P 500 was within weeks of a peak that preceded a 57% drawdown over the following 17 months. That comparison is not a forecast, but it explains why portfolio managers are trimming risk rather than buying the dip. The transmission chain runs in one direction for now. Higher Treasury yields lift the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings, raise borrowing costs for leveraged companies and households, and strengthen the dollar — all of which weigh on equity valuations. Japan's bond market adds a second channel: as domestic yields rise, the case for Japanese investors to repatriate capital from overseas bond markets strengthens, a dynamic that has historically amplified selling in U.S. and European debt. For the Fed, the arithmetic is uncomfortable. A manufacturing PMI at 57 is consistent with an economy running well above trend, and input-cost pressures in the same release undercut the case for near-term cuts. The November meeting is the next scheduled test, followed by December, and futures pricing now leans toward a hike at both rather than a hold. The near-term path depends on whether the growth data cools or the inflation component of the PMI proves a one-month spike. If input costs ease in October's release, yields could stabilize and equities recover. If they do not, the bond selloff has room to run, and the equity market's ability to absorb a 5%+ 10-year Treasury yield will be tested again. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.