Serbia's NIS seeks waiver with 6 days left on refinery clock

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[1] Serbia's Russian-owned NIS oil firm seeks new US sanctions waiver (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/serbi ...)[2] Serbia to release reserve diesel due to global shortage, energy minister says (https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/s ...)[3] UK, EU and US sanctions on Russia - fieldfisher.com (https://www.fieldfisher.com/en/services/inter ...)

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Sep 24 2026, 11:54

Dollar climbs as Fed hike bets build before Trump-Xi summit

The dollar extended its advance Thursday as traders raised the odds of another Federal Reserve rate increase this year, pressuring EUR/USD a week after the central bank delivered its first hike since 2023 and signaled more to come. "The market is repricing the terminal rate, not the direction," said David Lefkowitz, head of US equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. "The debate is how much the Fed has to hike, and that debate is being settled in the dollar's favor right now." Fed funds futures imply the benchmark rate peaks near 4.8% in a little over a year, for total tightening of just over 100 basis points, according to LSEG data. That is a fraction of the 525 basis points delivered in the 2022-2023 cycle, but it is enough to widen the rate gap that has anchored the euro's range all year. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point last week, its first increase since 2023, and signaled another move by year-end. The euro's slide is the cleanest expression of that repricing. Europe's central bank has offered no matching hawkish turn: ECB policymaker Martin Kocher said Thursday the Governing Council will decide on rates "meeting to meeting," language that leaves the deposit rate where it is while the Fed's path steepens. Rate differentials, not growth expectations, are doing the work. ## A summit that cuts both ways Layered on top is the two-day state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who arrived Wednesday evening at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington and meets President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday. The agenda covers trade irritants, artificial intelligence safeguards and the war in Iran, with the two sides agreeing Wednesday to extend a one-year trade truce due to expire Nov. 10 by two months. For currency desks, the summit is a two-sided headline rather than a directional bet. Escalation would feed risk-off flows and add to dollar demand; a conciliatory outcome, particularly any softening on the $14 billion US arms package for Taiwan that Trump has called a "very good negotiating chip," would unwind part of the hike-driven bid. Peak baseline US tariffs reached 145% during last year's trade battle, matched by Chinese levies of 125%, before falling to roughly 47% after the leaders met in South Korea. The dollar's strength carries costs beyond the currency pair. A firmer greenback tightens global financial conditions, weighing on US exporters, emerging-market assets and dollar-denominated commodities. Gold traded muted Thursday as Fed tightening prospects and a decline in oil prices removed two of its supports, while crude eased off highs as trade and peace talks progressed. ## What the next FOMC meeting decides The near-term path hinges on whether the Fed validates the futures curve. Investors are factoring in further increases in 2027, and the current cycle is expected to be short and shallow relative to history: since 1983 the average hiking cycle has run just under two years with rates rising 320 basis points, according to Jefferies equity strategist Jane Gibbons. History offers a caution. The S&P 500 has fallen a median 2.6% in the three months after the first hike of a cycle, based on six cycles since 1994 compiled by LPL Financial, with drawdowns of 8% to 14% in five of them. The 2022 exception was far worse — a 25% peak-to-trough decline — because the pace of tightening, not the first move, broke the market. For EUR/USD, the arithmetic is narrower. The pair stays hostage to the spread between US and euro-area policy expectations until either the Fed's December meeting or a summit deliverable changes the calculus. A truce extension alone removes tail risk without reversing the hike premium; a breakdown in talks would compound it. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sep 24 2026, 11:45

TTF gas climbs as EU storage sits 12 points below 2025

Benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contracts traded near EUR 68.36 per megawatt-hour on Sept. 24, holding gains of as much as 5 percent, as traders confronted a storage buffer that has not been this thin entering a heating season since the 2022 crisis. "Storage is the only number that matters between now and December," said Omar Tariq, commodities analyst covering European gas markets. "At 61.6 percent full, the system has roughly 12 percentage points less cushion than it did a year ago, and that gap has to be closed by imports or by mild weather — there is no third option." Gas Infrastructure Europe data put EU storage at 61.6 percent of capacity, against 74 percent at the same point in 2025 — a shortfall of 12.4 percentage points. The move extends a rally that has kept TTF elevated through a summer in which injections typically depress spot values. The arithmetic behind the risk premium is straightforward. Europe entered the 2025-26 winter with storage near 95 percent full and exited it with inventories well above the five-year average. This year's injection season has run behind schedule, leaving the market dependent on sustained LNG arrivals through October and November to reach a comfortable pre-winter level. Every week of below-normal injections now translates into a larger call on cargoes during the coldest months. ## Spain's 2027 exit adds a second pull on Atlantic cargoes Spain plans to stop importing Russian LNG from Jan. 1, 2027, aligning Madrid with European Union restrictions on Russian gas. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said the government intends to comply with the EU framework, while acknowledging that long-term supply agreements held by Spanish companies complicate an immediate break. The timing matters less than the direction. Spain operates one of Europe's largest LNG storage and regasification networks, giving it unusual flexibility to receive cargoes from the United States, Qatar and West Africa and to redistribute them onward to landlocked European buyers. Albares said that infrastructure could support other European countries as the region secures alternative supply. Hungary's Minister of Economy and Energy, Istvan Kapitany, has said Budapest expects to meet its gas requirements without Russian supply by October 2027, a later deadline that reflects the country's heavier dependence on pipeline flows. For the chemicals sector, the transmission is direct. Higher gas costs raise production expenses for ammonia, methanol and hydrogen, all of which use natural gas as both feedstock and fuel. European ammonia producers have repeatedly curtailed output when TTF has spiked, and a sustained move above EUR 70 per megawatt-hour would reopen that calculation for the third consecutive winter. ## What closes the gap The bear case rests on LNG supply. Additional volumes from the United States and other exporters could cap upside, and a mild start to the heating season would slow the drawdown. The last time European storage entered October more than 10 percentage points below the prior year, in 2021, TTF went on to multiply several times over before peaking in August 2022 — a precedent that still shapes how traders price tail risk. The bull case is simpler: storage is the buffer, and the buffer is smaller. A cold snap in Northwest Europe in late November, combined with any disruption to Norwegian pipeline flows or a delayed US export terminal, would force the market to bid for cargoes against Asian buyers at the same time. The next hard data points are the weekly GIE storage update and the November injection figures, which will show whether Europe can still reach the 90 percent target that EU rules set for Nov. 1. Missing that threshold would leave the market carrying winter risk into December with no ability to rebuild inventories. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sep 24 2026, 11:42

Global bond selloff deepens as Japan 10-year yield hits 3.075%

Japanese government bonds fell across the curve on Thursday, driving the 10-year yield up 10 basis points to 3.075%, its highest since 1996, as a bond rout that began in New York spread through every major market and pulled equity futures lower. The move extended a selloff that pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.12% on Wednesday, a 19-year high, after S&P Global's flash U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 57 in September from 53.9 in August — the largest improvement in factory conditions since May 2022. The same report showed average input costs across goods and services surging, leaving investors to read strong growth as a reason for the Federal Reserve to keep policy tight rather than ease. "The market is repricing the entire path of policy, not just the next meeting," said James Okafor, rates strategist at Edgen. "When growth data beats this decisively and price pressures build in the same release, the bond market has no choice but to take the Fed at its word on holding higher for longer." Futures markets now assign a 57% probability that the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at each of its final two meetings of 2026, in November and December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That is up from 38% a week ago. The repricing has been global: Japan's five-year yield climbed about 10 basis points to 2.375% and the 20-year rose a similar amount to 3.915%, with the Tokyo market catching up after the three-day Silver Week holiday. Equities followed the move in yields. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 1% on Wednesday and the Nasdaq fell more than 1%, with only energy and industrials finishing in the green. Stocks slid across the globe in early European trade Thursday and U.S. stock futures pointed lower, as the implications of higher oil prices compounded the pressure from rates. Energy was the strongest sector on Wednesday, lifted by a rise in crude after five consecutive sessions of declines. President Donald Trump said U.S. officials had a "very good meeting" with Iran's delegation at the United Nations on Tuesday, but nothing concrete was announced on a lasting peace or a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which as much as 25% of the world's oil supply passed before the U.S.-Iran war. Higher crude feeds directly into the inflation picture that is already driving yields higher, tightening the squeeze on growth-sensitive sectors. The last time the U.S. 10-year yield traded above 5.12%, in 2007, the S&P 500 was within weeks of a peak that preceded a 57% drawdown over the following 17 months. That comparison is not a forecast, but it explains why portfolio managers are trimming risk rather than buying the dip. The transmission chain runs in one direction for now. Higher Treasury yields lift the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings, raise borrowing costs for leveraged companies and households, and strengthen the dollar — all of which weigh on equity valuations. Japan's bond market adds a second channel: as domestic yields rise, the case for Japanese investors to repatriate capital from overseas bond markets strengthens, a dynamic that has historically amplified selling in U.S. and European debt. For the Fed, the arithmetic is uncomfortable. A manufacturing PMI at 57 is consistent with an economy running well above trend, and input-cost pressures in the same release undercut the case for near-term cuts. The November meeting is the next scheduled test, followed by December, and futures pricing now leans toward a hike at both rather than a hold. The near-term path depends on whether the growth data cools or the inflation component of the PMI proves a one-month spike. If input costs ease in October's release, yields could stabilize and equities recover. If they do not, the bond selloff has room to run, and the equity market's ability to absorb a 5%+ 10-year Treasury yield will be tested again. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.