Dollar climbs as Fed hike bets build before Trump-Xi summit

source:

[1] EUR/USD dives as Fed hike bets rise ahead of Trump-Xi meeting (https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-div ...)[2] Fed rate hike cycles have a history of denting US stock prices (https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-rate-hik ...)[3] Trump, Xi expected to talk Taiwan, AI, trade and Iran as DC summit kicks off (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/trump-xi-meet ...)[4] Trump and Xi Jinping head into Washington summit with both leaders thinking time is on their side (https://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-china-sta ...)[5] Trump faces Xi as strains with allies complicate U.S. pressure on China (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/trump-xi-chin ...)

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Sep 24 2026, 11:45

TTF gas climbs as EU storage sits 12 points below 2025

Benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contracts traded near EUR 68.36 per megawatt-hour on Sept. 24, holding gains of as much as 5 percent, as traders confronted a storage buffer that has not been this thin entering a heating season since the 2022 crisis. "Storage is the only number that matters between now and December," said Omar Tariq, commodities analyst covering European gas markets. "At 61.6 percent full, the system has roughly 12 percentage points less cushion than it did a year ago, and that gap has to be closed by imports or by mild weather — there is no third option." Gas Infrastructure Europe data put EU storage at 61.6 percent of capacity, against 74 percent at the same point in 2025 — a shortfall of 12.4 percentage points. The move extends a rally that has kept TTF elevated through a summer in which injections typically depress spot values. The arithmetic behind the risk premium is straightforward. Europe entered the 2025-26 winter with storage near 95 percent full and exited it with inventories well above the five-year average. This year's injection season has run behind schedule, leaving the market dependent on sustained LNG arrivals through October and November to reach a comfortable pre-winter level. Every week of below-normal injections now translates into a larger call on cargoes during the coldest months. ## Spain's 2027 exit adds a second pull on Atlantic cargoes Spain plans to stop importing Russian LNG from Jan. 1, 2027, aligning Madrid with European Union restrictions on Russian gas. Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares said the government intends to comply with the EU framework, while acknowledging that long-term supply agreements held by Spanish companies complicate an immediate break. The timing matters less than the direction. Spain operates one of Europe's largest LNG storage and regasification networks, giving it unusual flexibility to receive cargoes from the United States, Qatar and West Africa and to redistribute them onward to landlocked European buyers. Albares said that infrastructure could support other European countries as the region secures alternative supply. Hungary's Minister of Economy and Energy, Istvan Kapitany, has said Budapest expects to meet its gas requirements without Russian supply by October 2027, a later deadline that reflects the country's heavier dependence on pipeline flows. For the chemicals sector, the transmission is direct. Higher gas costs raise production expenses for ammonia, methanol and hydrogen, all of which use natural gas as both feedstock and fuel. European ammonia producers have repeatedly curtailed output when TTF has spiked, and a sustained move above EUR 70 per megawatt-hour would reopen that calculation for the third consecutive winter. ## What closes the gap The bear case rests on LNG supply. Additional volumes from the United States and other exporters could cap upside, and a mild start to the heating season would slow the drawdown. The last time European storage entered October more than 10 percentage points below the prior year, in 2021, TTF went on to multiply several times over before peaking in August 2022 — a precedent that still shapes how traders price tail risk. The bull case is simpler: storage is the buffer, and the buffer is smaller. A cold snap in Northwest Europe in late November, combined with any disruption to Norwegian pipeline flows or a delayed US export terminal, would force the market to bid for cargoes against Asian buyers at the same time. The next hard data points are the weekly GIE storage update and the November injection figures, which will show whether Europe can still reach the 90 percent target that EU rules set for Nov. 1. Missing that threshold would leave the market carrying winter risk into December with no ability to rebuild inventories. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sep 24 2026, 11:44

Serbia's NIS seeks waiver with 6 days left on refinery clock

Serbia's only oil refinery has six days of legal operating room left. NIS, the country's dominant fuel supplier and 56.16% owned by Russia's Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, said Thursday it has filed for a fresh US sanctions waiver to keep running after the current one lapses on September 30. "The regular functioning of the ... oil refinery, and a stable market supply are of crucial importance for maintaining energy stability" in Serbia, NIS said in a statement announcing the application. The numbers behind that statement are unusually concentrated. NIS supplies up to 80% of the Serbian market and operates the Pancevo refinery in northern Serbia, with annual crude processing capacity of 4.8 million tons. The US Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned NIS last October over its Russian ownership, part of a broader campaign against Moscow's energy revenue, and Washington has since granted a series of short-term waivers while pushing for divestment of the Russian stake. Serbia holds 29.9% of NIS; the remainder sits with small shareholders and employees. The timing is what makes the filing consequential. Serbia's energy ministry said the same day it will release roughly 5,000 metric tons of Eurodiesel from state reserves to ease a supply squeeze, with October consumption projected at about 205,000 tons. Companies have stopped importing diesel because of high prices, and logistics costs remain elevated after low water levels on the Danube cut August fuel imports by barge to just 25% to 30% of planned volumes. In August the ministry ordered NIS to lift crude processing from 9,500 tons to 13,000 tons per day and released 23,000 tons of operational reserves to other distributors to offset the import shortfall. A waiver denial would remove the marginal barrel Serbia has been leaning on to plug that gap. ## The sale that has to close before the waiver stops mattering The mechanism Washington has chosen is divestment, not permanent exemption. Hungary's MOL is the named buyer for the Russian stake, and the waivers exist to keep Pancevo running until that transaction completes. That sequencing creates a narrow window: NIS needs crude imports to continue through the sale process, and OFAC needs the sale to be credible enough to justify each extension. Neither side has disclosed a closing date, and the deal's regulatory approvals across multiple jurisdictions remain not yet disclosed. For European refiners, the read-through is about regional product balances rather than Serbian equity risk. NIS shares trade on the Belgrade exchange, a market too small to transmit a meaningful signal to the wider energy complex. The transmission runs through diesel instead. Serbia sits on the southern leg of the Adriatic pipeline system and its Pancevo barrels feed Balkan and broader Danube-basin demand; losing 4.8 million tons of annual refining capacity from an already tight European diesel market would push marginal buyers toward Mediterranean and Italian cargoes. The precedent is instructive. The last time Washington tightened the waiver cycle on a Russian-owned European refiner, the affected operator's crude runs fell before a buyer was found, and regional diesel cracks widened in the interim. Serbia's own August data already shows the pattern in miniature: when imports failed, the state raided reserves and ordered the refinery to run harder. That works once. It does not work if the refinery itself is the constraint. ## What a denial prices in The asymmetry favors a renewal. OFAC has extended repeatedly, and a denial would hand Belgrade a fuel crisis in the middle of a diesel shortage it is already managing with strategic stock. The counterargument is political: each extension weakens the incentive for Gazprom Neft to accept a discounted exit, and the US House passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on September 16, adding a legislative channel for tighter enforcement. The EU, meanwhile, failed to roll over its own Russia asset-freeze regulation on September 14 and settled for a one-week extension, a reminder that allied sanctions discipline is itself under strain. For traders, the position to watch is not NIS equity but the Mediterranean diesel crack and the pace of MOL's filing progress. A renewal on or before September 30 keeps the risk premium contained and leaves the divestment timeline as the only live variable. A denial, or a lapse into a technical gap while paperwork is processed, would force Serbia to source product on the spot market at record prices and would test whether the Balkan supply chain can absorb the loss of its only refinery. Either way, the decision lands within days, and it lands on a market with no spare diesel. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sep 24 2026, 11:42

Global bond selloff deepens as Japan 10-year yield hits 3.075%

Japanese government bonds fell across the curve on Thursday, driving the 10-year yield up 10 basis points to 3.075%, its highest since 1996, as a bond rout that began in New York spread through every major market and pulled equity futures lower. The move extended a selloff that pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.12% on Wednesday, a 19-year high, after S&P Global's flash U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 57 in September from 53.9 in August — the largest improvement in factory conditions since May 2022. The same report showed average input costs across goods and services surging, leaving investors to read strong growth as a reason for the Federal Reserve to keep policy tight rather than ease. "The market is repricing the entire path of policy, not just the next meeting," said James Okafor, rates strategist at Edgen. "When growth data beats this decisively and price pressures build in the same release, the bond market has no choice but to take the Fed at its word on holding higher for longer." Futures markets now assign a 57% probability that the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points at each of its final two meetings of 2026, in November and December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. That is up from 38% a week ago. The repricing has been global: Japan's five-year yield climbed about 10 basis points to 2.375% and the 20-year rose a similar amount to 3.915%, with the Tokyo market catching up after the three-day Silver Week holiday. Equities followed the move in yields. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 1% on Wednesday and the Nasdaq fell more than 1%, with only energy and industrials finishing in the green. Stocks slid across the globe in early European trade Thursday and U.S. stock futures pointed lower, as the implications of higher oil prices compounded the pressure from rates. Energy was the strongest sector on Wednesday, lifted by a rise in crude after five consecutive sessions of declines. President Donald Trump said U.S. officials had a "very good meeting" with Iran's delegation at the United Nations on Tuesday, but nothing concrete was announced on a lasting peace or a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which as much as 25% of the world's oil supply passed before the U.S.-Iran war. Higher crude feeds directly into the inflation picture that is already driving yields higher, tightening the squeeze on growth-sensitive sectors. The last time the U.S. 10-year yield traded above 5.12%, in 2007, the S&P 500 was within weeks of a peak that preceded a 57% drawdown over the following 17 months. That comparison is not a forecast, but it explains why portfolio managers are trimming risk rather than buying the dip. The transmission chain runs in one direction for now. Higher Treasury yields lift the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings, raise borrowing costs for leveraged companies and households, and strengthen the dollar — all of which weigh on equity valuations. Japan's bond market adds a second channel: as domestic yields rise, the case for Japanese investors to repatriate capital from overseas bond markets strengthens, a dynamic that has historically amplified selling in U.S. and European debt. For the Fed, the arithmetic is uncomfortable. A manufacturing PMI at 57 is consistent with an economy running well above trend, and input-cost pressures in the same release undercut the case for near-term cuts. The November meeting is the next scheduled test, followed by December, and futures pricing now leans toward a hike at both rather than a hold. The near-term path depends on whether the growth data cools or the inflation component of the PMI proves a one-month spike. If input costs ease in October's release, yields could stabilize and equities recover. If they do not, the bond selloff has room to run, and the equity market's ability to absorb a 5%+ 10-year Treasury yield will be tested again. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.