

Oracle Corp.'s credit risk hit a record Friday, with CDS spreads climbing to 198.23 basis points, as the company's massive AI infrastructure spending binge strains its balance sheet and pushes free cash flow deep into negative territory. "Oracle's rapidly expanding AI infrastructure business is increasing its overall credit risk, reflecting our more cautious view of the AI infrastructure industry, including rising capital expenditure requirements, an uncertain path to profitability, rapidly evolving industry and competitive landscape, and high customer concentration," S&P Global Ratings said in a statement explaining its downgrade of Oracle to BBB-, one notch above junk. The company burned through more than $20 billion in free cash flow over the past four quarters, with S&P estimating the deficit could widen to $42 billion in the current fiscal year. Oracle's capital expenditure reached $55.7 billion on a trailing basis, and management expects roughly $70 billion more in fiscal 2027. The company plans to raise about $40 billion through debt and equity this year, including a previously announced $20 billion at-the-market stock sale. The deterioration matters beyond Oracle. The company holds about $117 billion in bonds in the Bloomberg US Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, making it the largest non-financial issuer. A further downgrade to junk would force many institutional investors with investment-grade mandates to sell, potentially repricing risk across the entire $1.17 trillion index. **The OpenAI Concentration Problem** Roughly half of Oracle's $638 billion in remaining performance obligations — a measure of contracted future revenue — is tied to a single customer: OpenAI, according to S&P estimates. That concentration amplifies the risk of Oracle's timing mismatch: the company must spend billions on data centers upfront while recognizing revenue from those contracts over years. "It doesn't affect revenue today, so it's going to be hard for them to cash flow their way out of this," Andrew Wells, chief investment officer at SanJac Alpha, said. Oracle's 10-year bonds now yield about 6.4 percent, a meaningful premium to the 5.7 percent average for BBB-rated debt and closer to the 6.7 percent yield of BB-rated credits. The company sold $25 billion of investment-grade bonds in February and has been exploring novel ways to reduce cash burn, including asking some customers to pre-pay for costly computing components that go into data centers. **Hyperscaler Divergence** Oracle's predicament stands in sharp contrast to other AI hyperscalers. Alphabet Inc. posted free cash flow of about $73 billion last year, and Meta Platforms Inc. generates more than enough cash to fund its AI investments. That gives them "greater financial flexibility to outspend Oracle and weather industry downturns," according to S&P. Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. also maintain strong cash generation relative to their AI spending plans. The divergence raises a fundamental question for investors: can Oracle's AI infrastructure bet generate returns before its credit standing deteriorates further? The company's cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93 percent in the June quarter, and cloud now represents 52 percent of total revenue. Management has reaffirmed a $90 billion revenue target for fiscal 2027 with non-GAAP EPS of $8.05. Oracle shares fell more than 4 percent to $126.91 on Friday, hitting a 52-week low of $125.93. The stock has lost 63 percent from its September record high of $345.72 and is down 35 percent year to date, underperforming the S&P 500 by more than 45 percentage points. The stock trades at 16 times forward earnings, a discount to its five-year average of 22 times. The company has vowed to maintain its investment-grade status. "Oracle remains strongly committed to maintaining an investment-grade credit rating as our top capital allocation priority," a spokesperson said. But with capex expected to rise through at least fiscal 2029, according to CreditSights, the path back to financial stability depends on whether the $638 billion backlog converts into cash before the credit markets lose patience. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

China's fund industry is on the cusp of its biggest product innovation in five years as 18 managers apply to launch actively managed stock ETFs. China's fund industry is set to blur the line between active and passive investing after 18 asset managers submitted applications July 17 for the first batch of actively managed stock ETFs, a product structure that combines daily portfolio transparency with zero subscription fees. "Active ETFs represent the most significant structural innovation in China's fund industry since the launch of index ETFs," said a fund industry executive familiar with the product design, speaking on condition of anonymity because the applications are under regulatory review. The 18 applications, evenly split between the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, include filings from E Fund, China Asset Management, Fullgoal, Harvest, Southern, Penghua, ICBC Credit Suisse and 11 other managers. Nine products target value, balanced or dividend strategies, while two — Yongying's Jingqi Strategy and E Fund's Quality Future — lean toward growth. All received "material received" status from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on the same day. The product's success could redirect billions of yuan in retail fund flows from traditional over-the-counter mutual funds to exchange-listed products, reshaping a multi-trillion-yuan industry. Under the new framework, managers must disclose their full portfolio daily before market open and publish intraday net asset values, a transparency requirement that marks a sharp departure from the quarterly disclosure typical of conventional active funds. The innovation addresses two long-standing pain points for Chinese retail investors. First, top-performing active funds frequently close to new subscriptions after strong runs, locking out latecomers. Active ETFs, by trading on exchanges, remain accessible regardless of subscription status. Second, the exchange-traded structure eliminates subscription and redemption fees — which can reach 1.5% for traditional funds — replacing them with brokerage commissions typically around 0.06%. **A Test of Manager Discipline** The daily disclosure requirement introduces a new challenge for fund managers accustomed to operating behind opaque portfolio walls. High-turnover strategies, common among China's active managers, could generate elevated trading costs and create arbitrage opportunities for sophisticated market participants monitoring the published holdings. "The success of active ETFs will depend on whether managers can adapt their investment processes to a daily-disclosure environment," said the executive. "Those with low-to-moderate turnover and clear style discipline are best positioned." The CSRC's approval timeline remains undisclosed, but industry participants expect the first products to reach the market within three to six months, pending the standard inquiry-and-response review process. The launch would follow similar product expansions in the U.S., where active ETFs have captured more than $500 billion in assets under management, according to Morningstar data. For China's fund industry, the stakes are high. Total ETF assets under management have grown rapidly but the pace of inflows has decelerated in recent quarters. Active ETFs offer a potential driver to rekindle investor interest — provided the products deliver on their promise of manager skill combined with ETF efficiency. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*

BitGo Holdings faces a securities class action alleging its January IPO documents misled investors about the risk of falling crypto prices. "The IPO documents understated the scope and severity of the risk that declining digital asset prices posed to BitGo's business," the complaint filed by Pomerantz LLP said. BitGo sold 11.8 million shares at $18 each in its Jan 22 IPO, raising $187.6 million. On March 26, the company reported a net loss of $14.8 million for 2025, reversing a $156.6 million profit in 2024. The stock fell 15.7 percent to $7.67. On May 13, BitGo posted a $60.7 million net loss for the first quarter, and shares dropped another 17.2 percent. The lawsuit covers investors who bought BitGo shares in the IPO or between Jan 22, 2025 and May 13, 2026. Investors have until Aug 7 to seek lead plaintiff status. The stock closed at $9.86 on May 14, 45 percent below the $18 IPO price. The complaint alleges violations of Sections 11 and 15 of the Securities Act of 1933 and Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. BitGo operates as a digital asset infrastructure platform offering custody, trading and staking services, with revenue tied to crypto market conditions. The company reports revenue in two main segments: Digital Asset Sales, derived from trading volume, and Staking, which generates rewards from blockchain protocols. BitGo's March 26 earnings call revealed a quarterly margin of 0.21 percent in Digital Asset Sales, down from 0.47 percent a year earlier. The company attributed the decline to a challenging macroeconomic environment and declining digital asset prices. The lawsuit was filed in the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York under docket 26-cv-03428. Rosen Law Firm also reminded investors of the Aug 7 lead plaintiff deadline in a separate notice. BitGo, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under ticker BTGO, went public as one of the first crypto custody firms to list via a traditional IPO. The complaint specifically alleges that the registration statement and prospectus filed with the SEC contained untrue statements of material fact and failed to disclose information required by securities regulations. The Offering Documents were negligently prepared and not in accordance with governing rules, the lawsuit claims. BitGo's financial performance is closely tied to digital asset prices, which have experienced significant volatility since the company's IPO. The company's Bitcoin treasury and trading revenue both face direct exposure to market downturns, a risk the lawsuit says was not adequately disclosed to investors. The lawsuit adds legal overhang to a stock trading well below its IPO price. BitGo's next quarterly report, due in August, will test whether the company can stabilize revenue as digital asset markets remain volatile. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.