

A selloff in government bonds pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.59% on Monday, its highest level this year, as traders repriced expectations for Federal Reserve rate policy. The benchmark yield stabilized near that level by Tuesday's close, according to Tradeweb data, after climbing from around 4.40% the prior week. The move reverses a period of relative calm in fixed-income markets and brings the 10-year yield within striking distance of its 2026 peak. The selloff has been driven by a combination of stronger-than-expected economic data and hawkish Fed commentary, the Wall Street Journal reported. The fed funds rate has remained at its current level since the last adjustment, while overnight index swaps now reflect reduced expectations for rate cuts through year-end. **Higher Borrowing Costs Hit Households** For consumers, the yield surge translates directly into higher borrowing costs. Mortgage rates, which track the 10-year yield, have moved higher, adding hundreds of dollars to monthly payments on a typical home loan. Credit card APRs, already near record levels, face additional upward pressure, while auto loan and student debt rates are also climbing. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen roughly 30 basis points over the past two weeks, according to Mortgage News Daily data. Corporate borrowers face a similar squeeze. Investment-grade bond yields have risen in sympathy with Treasuries, pushing up financing costs for companies looking to refinance debt or fund expansion. The extra yield investors demand to hold below-investment-grade debt has also widened, reflecting increased caution about credit risk in a higher-rate environment. **Equity Markets Feel the Pressure** The equity market has begun to reflect the shift in rate expectations. Growth and technology stocks, whose valuations are most sensitive to discount rate changes, have come under particular pressure. The S&P 500's information technology sector lagged the broader market this week, while the rate-sensitive utilities and real estate sectors also declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a 0.74% gain Tuesday to 52,224.64, boosted by strong earnings from General Motors and 3M, but the broader market's advance has been uneven as the yield move filters through to equity valuations. The divergence between bond and equity markets is unlikely to persist, the Wall Street Journal said. If yields remain elevated, the equity risk premium — the extra return stocks offer over risk-free bonds — will compress, potentially triggering a broader pullback. The last time the 10-year yield traded at these levels, in mid-2026, the S&P 500 traded roughly 5% below its current level. **Cross-Asset Ripple Effects** The dollar has strengthened as higher yields attract foreign capital, adding pressure on emerging-market currencies and dollar-denominated debt. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% this week, extending its 2026 gains. Gold, which competes with yield-bearing assets, has fallen from recent highs, while bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets have also declined as liquidity conditions tighten. The path forward depends on the Fed's next moves. Markets will scrutinize the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting for any shift in the policy statement's language. If the Fed signals a higher terminal rate or delays the timing of potential cuts, yields could push even higher, further tightening financial conditions. If economic data softens, the selloff could reverse just as quickly. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*

Shemara Wikramanayake, one of Australia's highest-paid executives and the face of Macquarie Group's transformation into a global infrastructure and asset management powerhouse, will retire on Nov. 6 after nearly eight years as chief executive officer. "Over her last eight years as CEO, and for almost four decades with the company, Shemara has steered Macquarie through expansion into new markets, the dislocation of the COVID pandemic, and significantly enhanced recognition of our brand," Chair Glenn Stevens said. Macquarie, known in Australia as the "Millionaire's Factory" for its performance-linked pay structure, said its Commodities and Global Markets division posted a substantial increase in net profit contribution, driven by higher income from commodities trading. The gain was partly offset by a drop in Macquarie Asset Management's contribution following the divestment of its North American and European public investments business. The bank does not disclose quarterly profit figures. The leadership transition comes at a pivotal moment for the A$98 billion lender. Wikramanayake, 64, reshaped Macquarie to focus on asset management and infrastructure investment, reducing reliance on volatile investment banking fees. Under her watch, Macquarie's shares more than doubled to A$254.93 from A$124.93 in mid-2018, outpacing the S&P/ASX 200 Index's roughly 40% gain over the same period. Greg Ward, a 30-year Macquarie veteran who served as chief financial officer during the global financial crisis, will take over as CEO. Ward most recently led Macquarie's Banking and Financial Services division, which has pushed into Australia's retail mortgage market. Macquarie is now the nation's fifth-largest home lender, and analysts have forecast it could break into the top four within the next few years. The succession plan carries both continuity and risk. Ward's deep institutional knowledge — he navigated the bank through the 2008 crisis as CFO — provides stability. But his background is in retail banking and finance, not the asset management and commodities trading businesses that now drive the bulk of Macquarie's earnings. The CGM unit's profit surge, fueled by volatile commodity markets, may prove cyclical, while the asset management division faces headwinds from portfolio restructuring. Wikramanayake was paid A$26.5 million in 2025, reinforcing Macquarie's philosophy of tying executive compensation to performance. The bank has not disclosed details of Ward's pay package. Macquarie held its annual general meeting in Sydney on Thursday. The bank's next full-year results are due in May 2027. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

**WTI crude surged to $88 a barrel, a six-week high, as President Trump threatened to bomb facilities in or near Tehran if Iran attacks ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while Cushing crude inventories fell 674,000 barrels to near operational minimums, compounding supply risks that Goldman Sachs warned could push Brent above $120.** President Trump said Wednesday on Truth Social that any Iranian attack on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger US strikes on "a bridge or power plant, including facilities located in or near Tehran." The threat marked a geographic escalation from previous warnings focused on coastal military targets. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the US would continue attacks "as long as Iran tries to control shipping traffic," while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signaled potential expansion to include Yemen's Houthi rebels, who on Monday announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. "This is a dangerous precedent — if a nation state can control an international waterway, charge a toll and blow up ships that don't pay, it will repeat in other regions," Rubio said at an ASEAN meeting in Manila, warning the principle could extend to Asian waterways. The geopolitical escalation converged with tightening physical supply. Cushing, Oklahoma — the delivery point for WTI futures — saw inventories drop 674,000 barrels last week, pushing storage levels toward the operational minimum that typically triggers price spikes in the front-month contract. US crude production also slipped from its record high, even as the rig count continued rising, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve accelerated releases. Overall commercial crude inventories rose 2.01 million barrels, above the 500,000-barrel draw the market expected, but traders focused on the Cushing bottleneck rather than the headline number. **The $4 Gasoline Threshold** US retail gasoline prices returned to an average of $4 a gallon, a level that historically pressures consumer spending and erodes approval ratings. The national average stood at $3.14 a year ago. Brent crude rose 3.2% to $90.95 a barrel Monday, while benchmark US crude climbed 2.8% to $84.04, before extending gains through midweek. Goldman Sachs warned that if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists, Brent could break above $120, a scenario that would push gasoline prices well beyond the current threshold. **Two Chokepoints Under Threat** The Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas once passed — remains effectively closed after Iran blockaded the waterway and attacked tankers using a southern route hugging Oman's coast. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Tuesday it stopped two "non-compliant oil tankers" attempting to transit the strait. At least five vessels, including crude tankers carrying Saudi oil, made u-turns before reaching the Bab el-Mandeb strait after the Houthis threatened to block Saudi-linked ships. The Saudi military has vowed to keep the Bab el-Mandeb open, but the simultaneous threat to both chokepoints leaves global energy supply chains exposed to disruption on two fronts. The US completed an 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran on Tuesday, targeting aircraft hangars, drone storage and operations centers. Trump also threatened to strike the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility "pretty soon, and very heavily," though he acknowledged some Iranian ballistic missiles have survived US bombing campaigns because they are buried underground. The war has cost about $37.5 billion so far, Hegseth told lawmakers, with sources saying the actual figure could be far higher once military construction and base repairs are included. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.