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China targets 3,500 GW renewable capacity by 2030 in new plan
Edgen Stock·Jul 23 2026, 01:23Share to
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[1] National Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration issue the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development" (https://wallstreetcn.com/livenews/3138499 ...)[2] India awards 1,344MW pumped hydro, sanctions first utility-scale vanadium flow battery (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/india-a ...)[3] Our national advertiser takes everything (from the State) and it pays off, Alexis’s EL.AS. dizziness over non-state universities, the knives coming out for private hospitals (https://en.protothema.gr/2026/07/22/our-natio ...)[4] How China and India are supercharging the battery storage market - Energy Connects (https://www.energyconnects.com/opinion/though ...)[5] China Renewable Energy Growth Hits Record but Grid Lags Behind - Intelligent Living (https://www.intelligentliving.co/china-renewa ...)
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Jul 23 2026, 02:56
CLSA backs Tencent with HKD740 target as US AI scrutiny grows
CLSA reiterated its high-conviction outperform rating on Tencent Holdings with a HKD740 target, saying its AI models have moved beyond the distillation techniques drawing US scrutiny. "Tencent Hy3 has 295 billion parameters and can outperform GLM 5.1 with half the model size, completing the same tasks at half the cost," CLSA said in a report. The note follows US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's statement that the administration would scrutinize Chinese open-source AI models for intellectual property theft, with potential sanctions under consideration. Bessent said watermarks of American large language models were found on many Chinese AI offerings, and the Treasury would investigate in the coming days or weeks. Tencent and Alibaba are core holdings for the vast majority of global funds, CLSA noted, meaning any broad US action against Chinese AI could have outsized portfolio impact. The US and China are scheduled to hold their first bilateral AI talks in September, with Bessent expected to lead the US side. The US scrutiny centers on model distillation, a technique where a larger model's output is used to train a smaller one. Anthropic has accused three Chinese AI companies — Moonshot, DeepSeek and Minimax — of violating its terms of service to extract capabilities from its Claude model. OpenAI separately accused DeepSeek of similar practices in a memo to the House of Representatives. The debate over distillation has divided the industry. Hugging Face Chief Executive Clem Delangue said the practice is "a very small factor" in creating good models and is used by companies globally, including in the US. Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella called it "ironic" for AI companies that benefit from fair-use training rights to impose restrictive distillation terms on others. CLSA acknowledged that recent capital inflows into memory and hardware stocks may pressure Tencent and Alibaba's share prices. Still, the brokerage maintained that both companies' technology leadership and cost advantages support their fundamental thesis. Tencent's Hy3 model, with its parameter efficiency, represents a structural advantage that cannot be replicated through distillation alone, the brokerage argued. Chinese President Xi Jinping last week called for open AI cooperation, urging nations to "jointly oppose overstretching the national security concept in the field of AI." The reaffirmed rating shows CLSA views Tencent's AI position as resilient to regulatory headwinds. Investors will watch the September US-China AI talks for clarity on potential sanctions. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 23 2026, 02:52
Tencent plunges 7% as gaming fears, fund rotation hit HK tech
Tencent (0700.HK) tumbled 7% to HK$440.6, its steepest decline in a year, as gaming revenue fears and AI spending costs triggered a sector selloff. "The selling pressure is likely an overreaction, especially after the stock had posted a solid rebound in recent weeks," analysts at Citi Research wrote, reiterating a Buy rating with a HK$758 target price. The broker attributed the drop to fund rotation into AI hardware, renewed concerns over AI investment weighing on profits, and panic over a year-over-year decline in second-quarter gaming revenue that tracking data may overstate. The decline came as Chinese mutual funds reduced their Tencent holdings by 18.74 billion yuan (US$2.8 billion) in the second quarter, with the stock dropping out of their top-10 heavy-weight list. Tencent had gained about 10% in the first three weeks of July, accumulating profit-taking pressure. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 3% to 4,668, while the broader Hang Seng Index slipped 1% to 24,893. NetEase (09999.HK) tumbled 7.4% to HK$193.2, and Kuaishou (01024.HK) fell 5.8%. The selloff highlights the tension between Tencent's core gaming business — which Citi expects to show 8% year-on-year domestic revenue growth in the second quarter — and its escalating AI investment, with operating expenses climbing 47% in the period. The market now awaits Tencent's semi-annual report to verify the true performance of its gaming segment. **Gaming Revenue Debate Divides Analysts** Market participants disagreed on whether the selloff was justified. Ivan Su, Asia Director at Morningstar Investment Management, said he did not believe any fundamental factors were driving the decline, calling Tencent's gaming business "healthy with solid growth." BNP Paribas' sales team told clients that gaming stocks were heavily sold on rumors of declining Tencent mobile revenue. Citi forecast Tencent's domestic gaming revenue to rise 8% year-on-year and fall 3.9% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, arguing that previously deferred revenue and strong personal computer game performance would make reported revenue more resilient than market expectations. **AI Investment Costs Weigh on Profit Outlook** Beyond short-term gaming revenue fluctuations, the market harbors doubts about the impact of Tencent's continued heavy investment in artificial intelligence. Li Zeming, Chief Investment Officer at Blue Water Capital, said AI-related spending is not expected to affect current-period profits but will gradually be reflected in medium-to-long-term performance through depreciation. Guosen Securities lowered its earnings forecast for Tencent, projecting adjusted net profit of 268.5 billion yuan for 2026, compared with 259.63 billion yuan for 2025. Orient Securities took a more optimistic stance, forecasting second-quarter revenue of 204.6 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of 68.9 billion yuan, up 9%. Steven Leung, Executive Director at UOB Kay Hian, said the potential revenue dip may have served as an excuse for profit-taking following Tencent's recent rally. Leonid Mironov, Portfolio Manager at Gavekal Capital, said the sell-off could also be based on fund flow factors, noting the absence of national team support for Hong Kong stocks. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 23 2026, 02:08
Fed's Warsh leaves traders guessing with 30% chance of July hike
Days before the Fed's July 29 decision, swap markets still cannot agree on whether rates will move — a level of pre-meeting uncertainty unseen in modern central banking. Chair Kevin Warsh's abandonment of forward guidance has left bond traders guessing until the final days before the July 29 FOMC decision, with swap markets pricing just a 30% probability of a quarter-point hike against a 70% chance of a hold. "No forward guidance means we'll regularly see 20%, 30%, 40% probability distributions," said Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research. "The market is transitioning to this new way of thinking." The uncertainty has already amplified bond market volatility. The US 10-year yield stood at 4.55% after rising 0.9 basis points on July 17, a session when stocks fell and oil surged — an unusual combination that reflects inflation fears rather than recession concerns. The S&P 500 dropped 1.01% to 7,457.69 while Brent crude jumped 4.59% to $88.10 a barrel as US-Iran tensions threatened the Strait of Hormuz. A surprise hike on July 29 would mark the first rate increase since the Fed cut to the current 3.5%-3.75% target range, potentially triggering a sharp selloff in equities and a rally in the dollar. A hold, by contrast, would only delay the reckoning: swap markets already fully price a quarter-point hike by September and imply more than two cumulative increases by March 2027. The fog surrounding next week's decision is a direct consequence of Warsh's deliberate break with precedent. Since taking office in May, the new chair has dismantled the Fed's long-standing practice of signaling policy moves weeks in advance, arguing that telegraphed decisions box policymakers in when inflation data shifts unexpectedly. His predecessor, Jerome Powell, typically used speeches and media appearances to prepare markets — the last time Wall Street faced comparable ambiguity was September 2024, when traders debated whether the Fed would cut by 25 or 50 basis points. Powell ultimately chose the larger reduction. **Inflation data sends conflicting signals** The confusion is rooted in genuinely mixed economic indicators. The Consumer Price Index has fallen to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2%, and core CPI has eased to 2.6% — progress that briefly led bond traders to lean against a July hike after the June CPI print showed its first decline in six years. Yet the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, tells a different story: headline PCE has risen to 4.1% from 3.8%, while core PCE stands at 3.4%. With the effective federal funds rate at 3.63% and CPI at 3.5%, the real policy rate sits at approximately 0.13% — barely restrictive territory by historical standards. Warsh has repeatedly warned that inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, and his recent remarks linking near-term tightening to core CPI trends have kept a July hike on the table. The US-Iran escalation adds another complication: a sustained rise in crude oil prices would feed into consumer prices within months, potentially forcing the Fed's hand even if domestic data softens. **Economists and traders diverge sharply** One striking feature of this decision cycle is the gap between professional forecasters and market participants. All 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Fed to hold rates steady at the July 28-29 meeting. Traders, however, see a material chance of action. "I still don't think the Fed will hike next week, but the market tells me the vote will be closer than I expected," said John Brady, managing director at RJ O'Brien. This divergence is itself a product of Warsh's new regime. In the forward-guidance era, economist surveys and market pricing rarely diverged this close to a meeting because the outcome was effectively pre-announced. The current split means that whichever way the decision goes, a significant portion of the market will be wrong — and positioned accordingly. For traders, the new rules mean higher potential payoffs for correct calls but steeper losses for wrong ones. Rate volatility is likely to remain elevated through the decision, with the VIX — the S&P 500's fear gauge — already at 18.77 after a 12.19% jump on July 17. The next major data point before the meeting is the July 23 initial jobless claims report, followed by the July 24 flash services PMI, either of which could shift the probability calculus in the final days. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.