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European Central Bank board member Piero Cipollone warned that wider stablecoin use would drain retail deposits from commercial banks, sending Coinbase Global Inc. shares down 1.75% to $157 and Circle Internet Group Ltd. down 6% to near $60. "If the use of stablecoins increases in the future, banks will also lose retail deposits," Cipollone said Friday at the annual meeting of Italy's Federation of Cooperative Credit Banks in Rome. The warning echoes concerns raised by US banking groups over the CLARITY Act's stablecoin yield provisions. Coinbase shares fell to $157, with the Chaikin Money Flow reading at -0.05 and the MACD line negative, signaling sustained selling pressure. Circle touched $58 during pre-market trading on July 17, its lowest since February 2026, before recovering to $60. The global stablecoin market stands at roughly $300 billion, almost entirely dollar-denominated, per DefiLlama data. The ECB has named 36 payment providers — including Deutsche Bank, UniCredit and Revolut — for a 12-month digital euro pilot starting in the second half of 2027, after the European Parliament voted 416-169 to begin formal legislative negotiations. In the US, the CLARITY Act's Section 404, which would allow stablecoin issuers to offer yields, has drawn opposition from banking groups who warn it could trigger deposit flight from small banks. The bill has a 69% probability of passing before the August recess, according to betting markets. Cipollone framed the digital euro as the structural answer to the deposit risk. The central bank digital currency would let customers open accounts at their commercial banks and pay across the euro area in shops, online and person-to-person. Holdings would carry no interest, and calibrated limits would cap wallet balances, giving users little reason to move large sums out of the banking system. The ECB's own financial stability analysis concluded the design poses no material risk to bank liquidity. The warning follows a regulatory shakeout in Europe's stablecoin market. Tether skipped Markets in Crypto Assets authorization after the transition period closed on July 1, leading to USDT being pulled from regulated EU exchange order books. A bank consortium called Qivalis — grouping ING, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, CaixaBank and BBVA — is preparing a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin backed one-to-one, with at least 40% of reserves in bank deposits. Analysts see further downside for both stocks. Compass Point warned that Coinbase could fall to $140 if the CLARITY Act does not pass, while Oppenheimer trimmed its price target to $209, citing weak trading volumes on the exchange. Mizuho forecast Circle shares could drop to $50, warning that the new OpenUSD stablecoin may erode Circle's market share. ARK Invest purchased $17 million of Circle shares during the selloff, according to recent filings. The broader payments infrastructure in Europe compounds the structural challenge. Two-thirds of card payments in the euro area now run on non-European schemes, and 13 of the bloc's 21 countries lack a national card scheme, leaving the region reliant on payment rails it does not control. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*
William Blair cut Coinbase Global revenue estimates 12% for 2026 but kept its Outperform rating, betting a Bitcoin recovery will revive trading volumes. "Bitcoin's movement will determine whether casual retail traders re-enter the market," William Blair analysts wrote in a July 15 note. Those retail traders are the high-margin customers that exchanges like Coinbase depend on for transaction revenue. The firm also cut 2027 revenue estimates 13% and slashed EBITDA forecasts 34% for both years, citing persistently weak crypto trading volumes. Coinbase posted $1.41 billion in Q1 2026 revenue, missing the $1.52 billion consensus, with transaction revenue falling 40 percent year-over-year. The company reported a loss of $1.49 per share. The revisions reflect Coinbase's fixed cost structure, where expenses don't shrink proportionally when volumes drop. Shares of Coinbase and Circle Internet Group rose Wednesday, with Circle climbing 4 percent, as William Blair said many key risks are already reflected in investor expectations. William Blair initially started covering Coinbase with an Outperform rating in June 2025, projecting that EBITDA would bottom out in the second half of 2026 before staging a recovery. Despite the fresh cuts, that thesis remains unchanged. Circle, the stablecoin issuer trading under the ticker CRCL, faces its own competitive pressures. A consortium of 140 fintech companies, banks and crypto firms recently announced support for Open USD, a new stablecoin that could challenge Circle's USDC. Circle's USDC stablecoin has a $73 billion market cap, ranking second globally. Coinbase earned nearly $1 billion from its USDC revenue-sharing partnership with Circle in 2024, making the exchange's support for Open USD a notable development. The analyst community remains divided on Coinbase. Baird rates the stock Neutral with a $142 price target, which sits below the current trading price of $161.50. BTIG, at the other end of the spectrum, has a $260 target. The gap of more than $118 per share reflects the uncertainty around trading volume recovery. Coinbase shares have declined 58 percent over the past year. The 40 percent year-over-year drop in transaction revenue, combined with a fixed cost structure, means the company is particularly sensitive to volume swings in both directions. William Blair is betting that if trading picks up even modestly, profitability could recover faster than the revenue line suggests. Investors will watch Bitcoin's price trajectory in the second half of 2026 as the key catalyst for a potential turnaround. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**JPMorgan and Mizuho both downgraded their outlooks for Circle and Coinbase on Tuesday, warning that a revamped Hyperliquid partnership and a new rival stablecoin are squeezing USDC's economics from two directions at once.** JPMorgan lowered its earnings estimates for Circle Internet (CRCL) and Coinbase (COIN), saying their restructured agreement with Hyperliquid creates a "prisoner's dilemma" that pits the two partners against each other when distributing USDC. Hyperliquid, now one of the largest crypto trading venues, holds about $6 billion of USDC — roughly 8 percent of the stablecoin's circulating supply, the bank estimated. "We think the change in the Hyperliquid relationship showcases the challenge for Circle and Coinbase partnership agreements because it can create a prisoner's dilemma that drives Coinbase and Circle to compete with each other when promoting USDC distribution," analysts led by Kenneth Worthington said in the report. Under the new arrangement, Coinbase will classify USDC on Hyperliquid as "on-platform," collecting the income generated by reserves and paying 90 percent of it to Hyperliquid. JPMorgan estimated Coinbase previously split nearly all of that revenue evenly with Circle. The bank also cited weaker crypto trading volumes and asset prices as additional reasons for the downgrade. USDC's circulating supply has fallen to about $73 billion from nearly $80 billion in March, part of a broader $10 billion contraction in the stablecoin market since May. The decline comes as crypto trading activity has cooled and new regulated rivals have emerged. **Mizuho turns bearish on Circle** Mizuho went further, downgrading Circle to underperform from neutral and slashing its price target to $50 from $85 — implying roughly 20 percent downside from Tuesday's closing price of $62.63. The Japanese investment bank said Open USD, a dollar-backed stablecoin unveiled June 30 by the Open Standard consortium, poses a structural threat to Circle's business model. Open USD charges a small operating fee and distributes most reserve income to issuers and distributors, unlike Circle's model which captures reserve income before sharing a portion with partners. The consortium counts more than 140 partners, including Mastercard (MA), Stripe, Coinbase and BlackRock (BLK). "Open USD could fundamentally alter CRCL's business model, which relies on retaining a large portion of the treasury yield to drive revenues," analysts led by Dan Dolev said. Mizuho raised its estimate for Circle's distribution and transaction costs in 2027 to 73 percent from 64 percent, cutting its adjusted EBITDA forecast to $699 million from $1.09 billion. The new estimate is roughly 25 percent below analyst consensus of $941 million. The bank noted that Coinbase's support for Open USD could strengthen its negotiating position when the two companies renegotiate their revenue-sharing agreement in August. **What's at stake for USDC** The twin pressures highlight a structural shift in the stablecoin market. Hyperliquid's rise as a dominant trading venue — processing more than $150 billion in trading volume in July alone — has given it leverage to demand a larger share of reserve income. At the same time, Open USD's pass-through model threatens to reset industry expectations for how stablecoin revenue is split between issuers and distributors. Higher interest rates could provide some support for USDC-related revenue over the longer term, JPMorgan said, but that may not be enough to offset the pricing pressure from both Hyperliquid and Open USD. Circle's final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish First National Digital Currency Bank was a positive milestone, Mizuho said, but investors may be overestimating its significance. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Circle Internet Group won conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to open a national trust bank, a regulatory milestone that sent Coinbase Global Inc. shares higher Friday. "The OCC's approval of a national trust bank for a stablecoin issuer represents a significant step in integrating digital assets into the federal banking system," said Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital. The approval places Circle alongside Paxos as stablecoin issuers with US federal trust bank charters. The development comes as stablecoin transaction volume hit a record $1.79 trillion in June, according to Visa data. Sony Bank also received approval to establish a $40 million US trust bank subsidiary for dollar-denominated stablecoin issuance, with plans to eventually issue its own stablecoin for video game and anime payments. The OCC approval shows growing federal acceptance of stablecoin infrastructure within the traditional banking system, even as Congressional progress on the CLARITY Act remains stalled. Galaxy Digital cut its odds of the bill becoming law in 2026 to 50 percent, with Thorn warning the legislation may not have enough floor time before the Senate's August recess. Standard Chartered and Circle last week developed a system allowing institutions to mint and redeem USDC through a bank-led onboarding process, eliminating the need for separate accounts with Circle. The British multinational bank's integration with Circle's stablecoin infrastructure reflects a broader trend of traditional financial institutions seeking to incorporate stablecoin capabilities. The GENIUS Act, which establishes a federal framework for stablecoins and other digital assets, has advanced through the Senate Banking Committee but faces pushback from most Democrats and the banking industry. JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said banks will continue to "fight" against the current version of the CLARITY Act, arguing that crypto companies wanting to offer yield-bearing products should apply for banking charters. More than 200 crypto companies and related organizations urged the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act in a letter shared by crypto lobby group Stand With Crypto. The bill is set for a House hearing on July 17. The OCC's conditional approval of Circle's trust bank application shows that federal regulators are moving ahead with stablecoin oversight under existing banking frameworks, even as Congress debates dedicated legislation. For Coinbase, which has deep commercial ties to Circle through the USDC stablecoin, the regulatory clarity could support expanded custody and payment services. The approval also raises the competitive stakes for other stablecoin issuers seeking federal charters, potentially reshaping the sector for digital asset custody and payment services. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**Coinbase stock fell 49% over eight months while the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF lost 40%, exposing the cost of owning a corporate wrapper instead of the asset itself.** Coinbase fell 49% to $168.87 from Oct. 30 through July 6, while IBIT dropped 40% to $36.12, a gap from execution risk on top of Bitcoin exposure. "Crypto is cyclical, and experience tells us it's never as good, or as bad as it seems," Coinbase Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong told shareholders in February, describing the exact dynamic that makes the equity wrapper the wrong vehicle for Bitcoin exposure. Coinbase's Q1 2026 results show the structural drag. The exchange posted a GAAP loss of $1.49 per diluted share against consensus of $0.04, revenue of $1.41 billion missing estimates and falling 31% year over year, and $482 million in losses on crypto assets held for investment. Transaction revenue fell 23% quarter over quarter to $756 million. The company responded with a 14% headcount reduction targeting roughly $500 million in annualized savings, while ongoing data breach costs added $307 million in Q2 2025 alone. For investors seeking Bitcoin exposure in a retirement portfolio, the structural choice is between owning the asset through a low-cost vehicle and owning a 122x forward P/E equity that gets hit twice in downturns — falling volumes crush transaction revenue while falling marks crush the balance sheet. IBIT, with 99.93% of net assets in the underlying Bitcoin trust and a 0.25% management fee, tracks the asset without the corporate baggage. **The Numbers Behind the Gap** Bitcoin itself traded at $64,167.99 as of July 9, down 41% year over year. IBIT tracked that decline closely, falling 40% over the eight-month window. Coinbase deepened the decline to 49%, adding roughly 9 percentage points of pure execution drag through operating losses, breach costs, and a beta of 3.35 that magnifies every Bitcoin swing. The divergence extends to institutional behavior. Wells Fargo increased its Strategy stake by 125% while trimming its Coinbase position by about 25% and reducing its IBIT holding by 75,102 shares, according to its latest SEC filing — a rebalancing that favors Bitcoin treasury exposure over exchange equity and spot ETF positions alike. Polymarket traders currently price a 70% implied probability that Bitcoin trades at $70,000 or higher before year-end 2026. For investors who share that view, IBIT offers direct exposure to the outcome without the 122x earnings multiple, the data breach liabilities, or the quarterly transaction volume dependency that comes with Coinbase equity. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**The authorization places Coinbase in the same regulatory bracket as traditional investment firms, advancing its push to become an everything exchange.** Coinbase Global obtained a UK MiFID investment services license, clearing the regulatory path to offer derivatives and equities alongside crypto products to eligible UK users. "This is the largest expansion of our UK offering since entering the market," a Coinbase spokesperson said, adding that the authorization covers both retail stock trading and regulated derivatives for institutional clients. The Financial Conduct Authority-regulated license allows Coinbase to operate as a full investment firm in the UK. The exchange already reported $2.38 billion in daily derivatives volume and $29.37 billion in open interest, according to company disclosures. The FCA banned crypto-linked derivatives for retail clients in January 2021, but the MiFID framework permits regulated derivatives for professional and institutional counterparties. The UK is a strategically important market, with nearly 7 million adults already holding crypto assets, per FCA data. Comprehensive crypto regulations are expected to take effect in October 2027, giving Coinbase an advantage as an incumbent regulated entity. **Coinbase's Regulatory Stack Deepens** The MiFID license is the latest piece in a multi-year regulatory accumulation strategy. Coinbase already holds an FCA-regulated e-money license and a MiCA-aligned investment firm authorization in Cyprus. Together, these authorizations give the company a regulatory footprint that few crypto-native firms can match across Europe. The UK stock trading capability puts Coinbase in direct competition with platforms such as Trading 212, Freetrade and eToro, which have established retail investing audiences in the UK. The pitch to users is straightforward: manage bitcoin, ether and Apple shares in a single interface — a bundling strategy that has worked for Robinhood in the US. **Peer Comparison** Coinbase's international expansion mirrors moves by rivals. Circle Internet Group has strengthened its position as a global fintech firm by expanding USDC adoption across Europe, Asia and Latin America. Robinhood Markets has established operations in the UK and Asia, broadening its revenue streams beyond US markets. **Forward Outlook** The October 2027 FCA crypto regime deadline shapes the investment thesis for Coinbase. Firms already licensed and operating within UK regulatory frameworks before that date are likely to benefit from clearer rules and reduced compliance uncertainty. Coinbase, with its MiFID license in hand, is expected to absorb whatever the FCA's forthcoming regime requires. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**President Donald Trump's renewed crypto endorsement pushed Bitcoin above $64,000 and drove gains in crypto-exposed equities on July 6.** Bitcoin rose 3.2% to $64,200 on July 6 after President Donald Trump called himself "a big crypto guy" and signaled openness to adding Bitcoin to the new Trump Accounts savings program, lifting crypto-exposed stocks MSTR, COIN and HOOD. "I've become a big crypto guy only for one reason — if we don't have it, China's going to have it," Trump told reporters during an Oval Office ceremony marking the launch of Trump Accounts, according to a transcript of the event. He was joined by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins, and technology executive Michael Dell. The total crypto market added 1.38% to $2.2 trillion in 24 hours, with Ethereum trading above $1,800 and Dogecoin near $0.08. Strategy (MSTR) closed at $100.77 after bouncing from an intra-day low near $95, while selling 3,588 Bitcoin worth about $216 million. Coinbase (COIN) gained 2.05% to $168.87, recovering from a dip to the $160 support zone. Robinhood (HOOD) rose 4.28% to $117.55. The endorsement marks the latest in a series of pro-crypto moves from the Trump administration, which established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025 and signed the GENIUS Act, the first major federal crypto law, in July 2025. Investors are now watching whether the administration will pursue capital gains tax relief for Bitcoin transactions — a proposal Trump floated in a recent CNBC interview — which could further accelerate institutional flows into digital assets. Trump Accounts, created under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, launched July 4 with $1,000 seed deposits for more than 500,000 children. When asked whether Bitcoin could be added to the accounts, Trump said "something could happen," without committing to a timeline. The program allows families to contribute up to $5,000 a year, with funds locked until age 18. For MSTR, holding above $100 is critical to maintain momentum, with a break above $102 targeting $105. Below $100, support sits at $97.50 and $95. COIN faces resistance at $170; a clear break above that level could open a path to $172.50 and $175 this week, while failure to hold $167.50 may expose $165.48 and $162.50. HOOD's next resistance is at $120, with support at $112.73 and $109.82. Trump's pro-crypto stance has reshaped the regulatory landscape. His administration eased Biden-era enforcement at the Justice Department and SEC, rolled back restrictions on banks' crypto activities, and pushed for a broader market-structure bill — the CLARITY Act — that remains in Congress. The endorsement also carries geopolitical weight: Trump framed digital assets as a strategic race with China, saying the U.S. must lead or risk losing the sector to Beijing. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**Anthropic's safety testing placed Kimi K2.7 alongside GPT-5.5 and its own Opus 4.8, while Coinbase and SpaceX-backed Cursor have already put Chinese models into production.** Chinese AI models have crossed a threshold in the US enterprise market, winning production deployments at Coinbase and powering a startup acquired by SpaceX for $60 billion, as cost-conscious American companies seek alternatives to frontier American labs. "We're experimenting with defaulting to open-weight models like GLM 5.2 and Kimi 2.7 through our LLM gateway, while still encouraging engineers to choose the right model for the task," Brian Armstrong, chief executive officer of Coinbase, said in a post on X. Coinbase's AI spending fell nearly 50% from its peak after switching default models to Chinese open-weight alternatives, according to a graph Armstrong shared. Token usage reached one of the highest levels in company history even as costs declined. The crypto exchange also routes prompts to appropriate models based on difficulty, improved caching to lift hit rates from 5% to 60%, and keeps context lean by starting new sessions between tasks. The shift signals a reordering of the AI competitive landscape. Anthropic's internal safety testing of its newly restored Claude Fable 5 found that eight models — including Kimi K2.7, GPT-5.5, and its own Opus 4.8 — could all identify the same software vulnerabilities that triggered US export controls on Fable 5. The finding effectively placed a Chinese model in the same tier as frontier Western systems, validated by the lab widely considered the industry leader. **The Kimi Commercial Flywheel** The validation extends beyond benchmarks. Cursor, the AI coding assistant that SpaceX agreed to acquire on June 16 for about $60 billion in an all-stock deal, uses Kimi K2.5 as the base model for its Composer feature. SpaceX shares surged roughly 16% on the announcement, briefly making it the fourth-largest US company by market capitalization. Fireworks AI, a Kimi partner that provides inference infrastructure, saw its valuation climb from $4 billion to roughly $15 billion over about seven months. Its customer roster includes Cursor, Perplexity, Notion, and Uber. Kimi's own financial trajectory mirrors the adoption curve. Its annual recurring revenue tripled in three months, with overseas user growth of 400%, according to company disclosures. API revenue accounts for about 70% of total revenue, a structure similar to Anthropic's own business mix. The company employs roughly 300 people and generates revenue from more than 200 countries, with overseas income approaching half the total. **Valuation Gap and the Anthropic Parallel** Kimi's pre-money valuation stands at about $31.5 billion, according to public filings — roughly 3% of Anthropic's latest valuation and below Zhipu AI's market valuation on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The gap between Kimi's revenue trajectory and its valuation creates a structural tension for investors. The company's growth pattern — product-led, developer-driven, API-centric — closely tracks Anthropic's own path from $100 million to $1 billion in ARR during 2024. Kimi crossed $100 million in ARR in March 2026, putting it roughly where Anthropic stood two years ago. For investors, the question is whether the valuation discount reflects a genuine risk premium for Chinese technology companies operating in a US-dominated market, or an opportunity to buy an Anthropic-like growth curve at a fraction of the price. The answer depends on whether US enterprises continue adopting Chinese models at the current pace — and whether geopolitical tensions escalate further. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Ark Invest bought more than $75 million of crypto-exposed shares during June, loading up on Coinbase, Circle and Bullish as the sector suffered its worst selloff in years. The St. Petersburg, Florida-based investment manager purchased $44 million of Coinbase (COIN) shares, $25.25 million of Circle (CRCL) equity and $8.2 million of Bullish (BLSH) stock, according to emailed trade disclosures. The buying was spread across multiple sessions, with the largest single tranche — roughly 111,799 Coinbase shares worth about $18.4 million — executed in mid-June. Ark has historically maintained a sizable position in Coinbase, treating the exchange as a core bet on crypto infrastructure, the firm's daily trade disclosures show. The purchases followed a pattern of adding during sell-offs and trimming during rallies that Ark has employed since Coinbase's direct listing in 2021. Circle shares slumped 40% in June, ending the month at $62.63. The decline included an 18% single-day drop on June 30 after a consortium of more than 140 companies — including Coinbase, Stripe, Visa, Mastercard and BlackRock — unveiled Open USD, a rival stablecoin operated by an independent entity called Open Standard. Circle was also removed from several Russell Growth indexes during the annual reconstitution, adding further selling pressure. Coinbase ended June nearly 20% lower at $146.19, while Bullish fell 27% to $23.43. Bitcoin recorded its worst month in four years, with the largest cryptocurrency falling roughly 20% in June, according to CoinGecko data. The buying spree shows Cathie Wood's firm views the selloff as a buying opportunity rather than a structural shift. Ark added to its Circle position alongside Coinbase, suggesting the firm is constructing a broader portfolio thesis around crypto financial infrastructure — even as Circle faces its most direct competitive threat yet from the Open Standard initiative, which promises free minting and redemption with reserve earnings shared among partners. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**Coinbase is betting that smarter infrastructure, not usage caps, can keep its AI costs from spiraling as token consumption hits record highs.** Coinbase Chief Executive Officer Brian Armstrong outlined five strategies the crypto exchange is using to manage rising artificial intelligence costs without restricting how many tokens its engineers can use, according to a post on X on Friday. "Ultimately, humans shouldn't be choosing models — AI can automate this task," Armstrong said, describing the company's approach to routing prompts to the most appropriate large language models based on task difficulty. The first strategy involves selecting cheaper default LLMs. Coinbase is experimenting with Chinese open-weight models such as GLM 5.2, developed by Z.ai, and Kimi 2.7, from Moonshot AI, as defaults through its LLM gateway, Armstrong wrote. These models cost significantly less than those from frontier American AI labs like Anthropic and OpenAI. The second approach, which Armstrong discussed earlier in June, routes prompts to models matched to task complexity — using frontier models for planning but cheaper ones for execution where they would be overkill. The remaining strategies include better caching to reduce inference costs, keeping context lean by starting new sessions when switching between tasks, and improving company-wide visibility into AI spending. A graph attached to Armstrong's post showed token usage at Coinbase recently reached one of the highest levels in the company's history, while AI spending fell to nearly half its peak level. "The goal isn't to suppress usage. It's to build the infrastructure that makes exponential growth sustainable," he wrote. The push to contain AI costs comes less than two months after Coinbase laid off 14% of its staff, partly because AI had changed how people work. In a post in May, Armstrong said engineers at the company were using AI to "ship in days what used to take a team weeks." Coinbase's approach contrasts with the broader industry trend of imposing usage caps on employees to curb rampant token consumption. Companies including Uber and Amazon have reassessed their AI investments after budgets were depleted faster than expected, according to reports. A Flexera study published in early 2026 found that roughly 3 in 5 organizations acknowledged AI overspend had increased year over year. Armstrong said all Coinbase engineers can use as many tokens as they want, but they can see their usage. The company expects "more impact" from employees who spend more on AI, he wrote. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest bought $43.5 million in crypto-related stocks over three trading days, wagering on a rebound as the sector hit its lowest point in two years. ARK Invest bought $43.5 million in shares of Coinbase, Circle and three other crypto-related firms over three trading days, betting on a rebound as Bitcoin slid to a near two-year low of $58,190. ARK's largest purchases went to Coinbase Global Inc. and Circle Internet Financial Ltd., whose shares had fallen 17 percent and 28 percent, respectively, over the prior month, according to daily trade disclosures published by the firm. The firm also bought $5.2 million in Bullish, $5.1 million in Robinhood Markets Inc. and $1.7 million in SoFi Technologies Inc. Most of the shares were added to the ARK Innovation ETF, the firm's flagship fund, followed by the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF. The ARK Blockchain and Fintech Innovation ETF also received additional crypto-related stock allocations. The purchases come as confidence fades that the CLARITY Act will pass before the November midterm elections, adding regulatory uncertainty to a sector already reeling from Bitcoin's 85 percent decline from its 2021 peak. ARK's contrarian bet shows the firm expects a specific event — whether legislative clarity or a macro shift — to reverse the selloff. The CLARITY Act, which would establish a federal framework for digital asset regulation, has stalled in Congress as lawmakers debate provisions related to stablecoin oversight and securities classification. The bill's prospects have dimmed ahead of the midterm elections, when control of both chambers will be at stake. Bullish, the crypto exchange operator that went public via a SPAC merger in 2024, has seen its shares decline as trading volumes across the industry fell. Robinhood, which generates a significant portion of its revenue from crypto trading, has been diversifying into tokenization to offset the downturn. **A Broader Bet on Tech** ARK also added to its positions in Elon Musk's SpaceX and software intelligence platform Palantir Technologies Inc. over the same period, while reducing holdings in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Roku Inc. and Strata Critical Medical. The rotation shows ARK doubling down on its tech and crypto thesis even as the broader market turns cautious. The purchases span both pure-play crypto firms and companies with growing digital asset exposure. Robinhood has pushed aggressively into crypto tokenization in recent months, while SoFi offers crypto trading through its banking platform. This breadth suggests ARK sees the downturn as a buying opportunity across the digital asset value chain. **The Contrarian Calculus** The purchases represent one of ARK's most aggressive crypto-sector bets this year. With Coinbase down 17 percent, Circle down 28 percent and Bullish down 26 percent in the past month, the firm is buying at prices that imply significant distress. Whether the bet pays off depends on regulatory outcomes and Bitcoin's ability to hold support above $58,000 — a level not tested since mid-2024. The purchases were distributed across three of ARK's actively managed ETFs, with the ARK Innovation ETF receiving the largest allocation. The ARK Next Generation Internet ETF and the ARK Blockchain and Fintech Innovation ETF also added shares, according to the firm's daily trade disclosures. ARK's buying spree comes after a period of sustained outflows from crypto-focused funds. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a bellwether for institutional demand, has traded at a discount to net asset value for most of the past year, reflecting weak investor appetite. ARK's move runs counter to that trend, betting on a recovery that most institutional investors have yet to embrace. The timing is notable. Bitcoin's slide to $58,190 marks its lowest level since mid-2024, erasing gains from the rally that followed the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in January of that year. The cryptocurrency has lost more than 80 percent of its value from the all-time high of about $69,000 reached in November 2021, a decline that has dragged down the entire crypto equity sector. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Coinbase Global Inc. shares have fallen 62% in the year since Jim Cramer's PARC basket launched, with the stock trading near the bottom of its 52-week range as of June 29. The PARC basket debuted in mid-2025 as a curated portfolio of what Cramer described as high-conviction picks across technology and crypto. Since then, COIN has been the basket's worst-performing component, according to market data compiled by financial analytics platforms. The 62% decline has pushed Coinbase's market capitalization well below its 2025 peak, erasing gains from the crypto exchange's post-election rally. The stock now trades at levels last seen before the broader crypto market entered its current consolidation phase, with platform trading volumes also showing compression. By comparison, the S&P 500 has risen more than 7% this year through late June, according to Investopedia, as a resilient economy and massive AI investments supported broad equity gains. The selloff in COIN shows the challenges facing crypto exchanges as regulatory uncertainty persists and competition from offshore platforms intensifies. With the stock at the lower end of its yearly range, investors are watching for any event — from a shift in US crypto policy to a recovery in spot trading volumes — that could reverse the downward trajectory. The decline also threatens Coinbase's valuation and its ability to raise capital or pursue acquisitions. The PARC basket's performance shows the gap between mainstream stock-picking enthusiasm and the realities of the crypto exchange sector. While the S&P 500 has risen more than 7% this year through late June, Coinbase has moved in the opposite direction, weighed down by sector-specific pressures that include cooling retail trading activity and an uncertain regulatory landscape. Coinbase's revenue model, heavily dependent on transaction fees from retail and institutional trading, has faced pressure as crypto market volumes contracted from the peaks seen in early 2025. The company has attempted to diversify through its subscription and services segment, which includes staking, custody, and USDC interest income, but trading remains the primary driver of earnings. Regulatory developments in both the US and Europe have added uncertainty around the operating environment for centralized exchanges. In the US, the Securities and Exchange Commission has continued its enforcement-focused approach to crypto, while the European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets regulation, or MiCA, has introduced new compliance requirements for platforms operating in the bloc. For Coinbase, a recovery may depend on a rebound in crypto market activity or a clearer regulatory framework that reduces the risk premium investors are assigning to the sector. Until then, the stock's position near the bottom of its yearly range suggests the market is pricing in continued challenges. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Coinbase Global Inc. opened pre-IPO perpetual futures for OpenAI and Anthropic on June 22, extending its push into private-market derivatives after SpaceX contracts generated $3.2 billion in trading volume in their first four weeks. "These products give retail traders exposure to the most closely watched private AI companies ahead of their expected IPOs," a Coinbase spokesperson said in a statement on X. The exchange listed ANTHROPIC-PERP and OPENAI-PERP with support for limit, market, stop and stop-limit orders. The launch follows Coinbase's SpaceX perpetual futures debut earlier this month, which accumulated $390 million in open interest across eight exchanges between May 17 and June 10, according to data from Talos reported by Reuters. Binance, Coinbase's largest competitor, rolled out similar pre-IPO contracts for both AI firms ahead of Coinbase and saw its SpaceX contract surpass $280 million in trading volume within five days of its debut. The expansion is part of Coinbase's broader "everything exchange" strategy, which now includes tokenized stocks backed one-for-one by real shares, equity and crypto options, an SEC-registered AI advisor, automated trading agents, and a USDC-backed credit card. The move reduces Coinbase's dependence on cyclical crypto trading volumes — a critical shift as COIN shares have fallen 26.1% year-to-date, underperforming the broader market. Both OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed for initial public offerings with the SEC. Anthropic submitted its Form S-1 on June 1 after raising $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, while OpenAI filed shortly after at an $852 billion valuation, according to published reports. Prediction markets suggest Anthropic could go public this fall, while OpenAI's timeline remains uncertain. Coinbase's pre-IPO perpetual futures do not represent direct ownership in the underlying companies. Instead, they track projected valuations based on secondary market trends and disclosed funding rounds — a structure common in crypto derivatives markets where contracts lack expiration dates. Competitors are also expanding into crypto derivatives. Robinhood Markets Inc. is offering perpetual futures in Europe and micro futures for Bitcoin, Solana and XRP, while Interactive Brokers Group Inc. provides Bitcoin and Ether futures and options for institutional and retail traders seeking regulated exposure. Of 34 analysts covering Coinbase, 21 rate the stock a buy or higher, 10 recommend hold and three rate sell, with an average 12-month price target of $229.74, according to Koyfin data. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.