Report
No Data Yet
Blackstone, BlackRock and Apollo have triggered redemption restrictions across their private credit funds as defaults rise and investors rush for exits, exposing a structural liquidity mismatch in the $3 trillion market that regulators have warned could ripple through the banking system and AI financing. "The global credit default cycle has begun and losses will likely exceed current market expectations," PIMCO said in its latest outlook, marking one of the most explicit warnings from a major fixed-income manager about the $2.5 trillion to $3 trillion private credit industry. Redemption requests at non-traded business development companies tracked by Fitch Ratings reached an average 10.3% of shares outstanding in the second quarter, up from 9.7% in the prior period and more than double the typical 5% quarterly repurchase limit. BlackRock's private credit fund honored less than 40% of redemption requests, while Cox Capital Partners launched tender offers for Apollo fund shares at 70 cents on the dollar and HPS Investment Partners shares at 75 cents — discounts of 15% to 30% to stated net asset values. Partners Group, the Swiss asset manager, capped redemptions from an $8.6 billion private equity fund last month after clients pulled $3.8 billion in the first half. The crisis marks the first real credit cycle test for an industry that grew 50% to 75% between 2024 and 2025, fueled by pension funds, insurers and high-net-worth investors chasing yields of 3% to 4% above public bonds. Unlike publicly traded debt, private credit loans are held to maturity and valued internally by fund managers, meaning credit deterioration often does not appear in net asset values until a default or forced sale occurs. The gap between stated NAV and what investors can actually get in the secondary market — 15% to 30% for some Apollo and Ares funds — suggests the industry is entering a price-discovery phase that could trigger further write-downs. ## Bank exposure and the AI financing link The contagion risk extends well beyond fund investors. Banks hold an estimated $2.3 trillion in contingent liquidity exposure to non-depository financial institutions, including subscription lines and NAV financing facilities extended to private credit funds. Euro zone banks alone have about 62.5 billion euros in direct private credit exposure, equal to 0.2% of their assets, while insurers hold 211 billion euros and pension funds 52 billion euros, according to European Central Bank data. The ECB warned in May that private credit's role in financing the AI boom poses a risk to the financial system, as second-round effects from a severe shock — including broader market selloffs and valuation losses — could be larger than direct losses. The AI financing channel is particularly vulnerable. Morgan Stanley estimated last year that AI data centers would require about $1.5 trillion in external financing, with as much as half coming from private credit markets. With fund liquidity freezing, that pipeline is now threatened. AI-related companies account for roughly 45% of S&P 500 market capitalization, meaning a slowdown in AI capital expenditure could spill over into equity valuations. The industry's fee structure compounds the pressure. Private credit funds charge 3% to 4% of net assets annually — far above the 0.03% for an S&P 500 index fund — creating a high-cost wrapper for assets that are increasingly difficult to exit. As redemptions mount and secondary market discounts widen, the gap between what funds say their assets are worth and what buyers will pay is becoming the central fault line in the $3 trillion market. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
BlackRock became the first investment firm to manage more than $15 trillion in assets, posting Q2 adjusted earnings of $13.91 a share that beat estimates. "Market fundamentals are strong and well supported, with higher margins and earnings momentum catalyzed by new technology," Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said in a statement. The New York-based asset manager pulled in $192 billion of client cash during the quarter, up from $68 billion a year earlier. Net income rose 20 percent to $1.9 billion. Adjusted operating margin reached 45.9 percent, its highest in almost five years. BlackRock shares jumped 6.6 percent on Wednesday, their biggest one-day gain in more than a year, helping push the S&P Financials index to a record high. The company increased its planned share buybacks in 2026 to $2 billion from $1.8 billion. | Metric | Actual | Consensus | Beat/Miss | |--------|--------|-----------|-----------| | Revenue | $7.08B | $6.85B | +3.4% | | Adjusted EPS | $13.91 | $12.59 | +$1.32 | | Adjusted Operating Margin | 45.9% | 44.2% | +170bps | Assets under management jumped to $15.34 trillion from $12.53 trillion a year earlier and $13.89 trillion in the first quarter, fueled by buoyant equity markets and record ETF inflows. The iShares ETF franchise drove much of the growth, with equity products accounting for $71.6 billion of net flows and fixed-income products contributing $92 billion. BlackRock's private markets push also gained traction. The firm, which has spent about $28 billion buying infrastructure investor Global Infrastructure Partners, private credit firm HPS Investment Partners and data provider Preqin, reported $15.4 billion in private markets net inflows. Private credit contributed $6 billion and infrastructure added $5.2 billion. The earnings beat was broad-based, Barclays analysts said in a note, with profit margins expanding more than Wall Street expected. Morningstar analyst Greggory Warren wrote that BlackRock continues to outperform its traditional asset management peers. The strong results lifted shares of competitors as well. KKR, Ares Management and Blackstone all gained following the report. The guidance raise and record AUM signal management expects continued momentum from ETF inflows and private markets expansion. Investors will watch the next quarterly update for progress toward BlackRock's target of $400 billion in gross private markets fundraising from 2025 to 2030. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
BlackRock plans to return more than $5.7 billion to shareholders in 2026, the world's largest asset manager announced Monday as it reported second-quarter results. "The capital return plan reflects confidence in the business and commitment to shareholder value," UBS analysts led by Brennan Hawken wrote in a note, projecting the firm will average $14.5 trillion in assets under management this quarter. The $5.7 billion target includes at least $450 million in quarterly share buybacks for the remainder of this year, according to UBS. The bank raised its 2026 and 2027 earnings-per-share estimates to $53.87 and $60.48, respectively, while maintaining a $1,270 price target. UBS trimmed its multiple to 21 times from 21.5 times, citing uncertainty around private assets and how tokenization could reshape competition. The announcement comes as BlackRock targets a 50% plus operating margin and expands into private assets and tokenized money market funds, with its BUIDL product managing nearly $2.9 billion. The firm's iShares ETF franchise is expected to see $110 billion in equity inflows this quarter, one of the strongest on record, UBS said. Fixed income ETFs are on pace for a record quarter with an estimated $66 billion in inflows. Management fees are pegged at $5.6 billion, ahead of the Street's $5.5 billion consensus, supported by a higher average fee rate and rising AUM. BlackRock's technology and risk management fees, including Aladdin and Preqin, are expected to climb 12% year over year. The firm's organic base fee growth is tracking at about 7.8%, at the high end of its 6% to 7% or higher guidance range. The $5.7 billion return target puts BlackRock among the most generous capital return programs in the asset management industry, surpassing peers such as State Street and Invesco on a relative basis. The plan also comes as a broader industry shift toward tokenization accelerates, with 66% of institutions planning to launch tokenized money market funds by 2027, according to a report from Global Digital Finance and ISDA. Tokenized Treasury and money market products now exceed $15 billion in on-chain assets, with BlackRock's BUIDL ranking second behind Hashnote's USYC. The strong ETF flow momentum provides a tailwind for BlackRock's fee income. UBS expects iShares equity inflows of $110 billion to rank among the strongest quarterly performances ever for the segment, while the $66 billion in fixed income ETF inflows would set a new record. These flows support the higher average fee rate that UBS models in its above-consensus management fee estimate. The $5.7 billion plan shows management expects continued growth in ETF inflows and technology fees to sustain cash generation through 2026. Investors will watch the company's earnings call later Monday for updated margin targets and capital allocation priorities. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
BlackRock Inc. is scheduled to report second-quarter results before the opening bell on Wednesday, July 15, with Wall Street projecting the world's largest asset manager to post earnings per share of $12.65, up 5 percent from a year earlier. "The results will test whether BlackRock's scale and diversified model can sustain organic fee growth amid industry fee compression," Morgan Stanley analysts led by Michael Cyprys said in a note, reiterating an overweight rating with a $1,430 price target. Revenue is expected to reach $6.74 billion, representing 24.4 percent year-over-year growth, according to consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha. A second consensus projection sees EPS of $12.57 on revenue of $6.72 billion. BlackRock has exceeded consensus EPS estimates in each of the past four quarters and beaten revenue expectations in three of those periods. The report comes as BlackRock's first-quarter performance set a high bar. The firm reported $136 billion in long-term net inflows, including a record $132 billion into iShares exchange-traded products, alongside $3 billion in active equity inflows and $9 billion in private markets inflows led by private credit and infrastructure. First-quarter organic fee growth reached 8 percent year over year, while adjusted operating margin expanded by more than 100 basis points. **What analysts are watching** Investors will focus on three areas: net inflows into iShares ETFs and active strategies, fee revenue trends, and the performance of BlackRock's Aladdin technology platform and alternatives business. The recently launched iShares Nasdaq 100 ETF will also draw attention as a potential incremental growth driver. Barclays raised its price target to $1,340, while Morgan Stanley lifted its target to $1,430. Of the 17 analysts covering the stock, 14 recommend buying, three maintain hold ratings and none recommend selling. The average price target of $1,259 implies roughly 22 percent upside from the current share price of $1,029.85. Earnings estimates have climbed 0.75 percent over the past 60 days, while revenue forecasts have increased 1.74 percent, reflecting growing confidence ahead of the quarterly print. Morgan Stanley projects BlackRock will deliver roughly 18 percent EPS compound annual growth from 2025 through 2028, driven by its iShares ETF platform, multi-asset and alternatives businesses, and its growing Aladdin technology offering. **What's at stake** A strong quarter that confirms continued organic fee growth and margin expansion could push the stock toward the $1,259 consensus target and beyond. The key risk is a sharp slowdown in net inflows or fee-rate pressure that forces earnings guidance lower. Management commentary on client demand, market conditions and capital deployment will shape the outlook for the second half of the year. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
US data-center builders and operators are working with bankers to sell majority equity stakes worth tens of billions of dollars this summer, capitalizing on surging demand for AI computing infrastructure. "There are not that many people who can write those checks," Ravi Purohit, co-head of infrastructure at Paul Weiss, said. Among the largest potential deals, Dallas-based DataBank could fetch as much as $25 billion in a majority stake sale, according to people familiar with the process. EdgeCore Digital Infrastructure, a Denver-based operator backed by Swiss investment firm Partners Group, asked potential buyers to submit offers last week. KKR's newly formed Helix Digital Infrastructure is among those evaluating assets, a person with direct knowledge said. Other firms working with bankers include Netrality Data Centers and Edged, with properties spanning from Phoenix to Atlanta. The wave of stake sales comes as data-center M&A hit about $50 billion in 2025, more than double the prior year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Whether enough buyers exist to absorb multiple multibillion-dollar deals simultaneously remains an open question. **Rising costs drive consolidation** Shortages of electricians, plumbers, gas turbines and memory chips have driven construction costs higher. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang recently estimated that building a gigawatt of new computing power using his company's architecture could soon reach $80 billion to $100 billion. Some operators have been forced to seek deeper-pocketed backers to fund their next phase of expansion, according to several people working on the deals. Private-equity firms have increasingly added data-center operators to their portfolios. Blackstone took a roughly 49 percent stake in Rowan Digital Infrastructure in April and bought QTS for about $10 billion in 2021. Last year, a consortium led by BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners and MGX agreed to buy Aligned Data Centers for about $40 billion, the largest data-center deal ever. That acquisition is expected to close in the coming weeks, surpassing Blackstone's roughly $16 billion purchase of AirTrunk in 2024. **NIMBY resistance adds risk** Developers are increasingly running into fierce local opposition driven by residents' anxieties over rising utility bills, noise and AI services in general. In some cases, it has pushed developers to pause or walk away from projects, making data-center investments riskier than in the past. "The more they can demonstrate to buyers that they have a constructive relationship with these communities...that actually goes a long way," Purohit said, adding that companies looking to sell this summer will be scrutinized for how they plan to handle local opposition. Guaranteed access to electrical power is a major factor in deal valuations, bankers and investors involved in the sales say. Concerns around rising costs and delays might also drive some buyers to tie payments to completion of milestones. For investors, the wave of stake sales signals that data-center assets are entering a new phase of institutional ownership. Blackstone, BlackRock and KKR are placing large bets on AI infrastructure, while developers like DataBank and EdgeCore seek capital partners to fund expansions that no single firm can finance alone. The $25 billion DataBank deal, if completed, would serve as a benchmark for how the market values pure-play data-center operators in an era of $80 billion-plus build costs per gigawatt. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist Li Wei said the firm remains "adamantly confident" in AI but expects investment focus to shift toward physical AI, including robotics, sensors, batteries and rare earths, as data center and energy constraints reshape the opportunity set. "Investing in AI is not about guessing which company will become the ultimate winner, but rather focusing on the scarcity opportunities created by AI," Li Wei, Global Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock, said. "Regardless of which AI model prevails, AI development will inevitably require substantial data centers, energy, electricity and chips." The shift comes as AI-related capital expenditures across major hyperscalers exceeded $360 billion in 2025, reflecting multiyear commitments to data centers and computing infrastructure, according to BlackRock Investment Institute's 2026 midyear outlook. The institute identified the AI buildout as an accelerating theme, noting that power, memory, chips and data centers are scarce inputs that will shape investment opportunities regardless of how the software layer evolves. BlackRock also downgraded emerging market equities from Overweight to Neutral, saying manufacturing strength alone does not guarantee attractive equity returns. The repositioning signals a rotation from crowded AI hardware benchmarks toward what BlackRock calls "selective bottlenecks and catalysts" in physical AI. As AI applications expand into robotics, demand for sensors, batteries and rare earths will grow alongside traditional computing infrastructure, creating a broader set of investment opportunities beyond semiconductors. **Energy Emerges as the Binding Constraint** Energy demand is becoming the most significant near-term constraint on the AI buildout, and investors focused exclusively on semiconductors and software miss a critical part of the investment landscape. Data centers consume enormous amounts of electricity, and the expansion of AI computing capacity is creating demand growth that existing grid infrastructure was not designed to accommodate. Natural gas has attracted particular attention as a bridging fuel for data center power generation, with its reliability and scalability making it more practical than intermittent renewable sources for baseload requirements, according to Morgan Stanley Research, which identified the Future of Energy as one of its four key 2026 investment themes. Grid infrastructure companies — transformers, transmission equipment and grid management software — are benefiting from a secular demand cycle that extends beyond the AI-specific buildout. For investors looking to access the AI theme without direct semiconductor exposure, energy and power infrastructure represent a complementary expression of the same secular trend, BlackRock said. **Physical AI Opens New Investment Avenues** The expansion of AI into physical applications — robotics, autonomous systems and industrial automation — creates demand for a different set of inputs than the software and chip layer. Sensors, batteries, rare earths and advanced manufacturing capabilities become scarce resources as AI moves from data centers into the real world. BlackRock's Li Wei said the firm is adjusting its strategy by expanding AI exposure away from the most crowded hardware benchmarks toward these physical AI-related sectors. The U.S. remains BlackRock's preferred market for AI exposure, with the firm maintaining an overweight position on U.S. stocks. The Nasdaq Composite has gained about 12 percent this year, while the MSCI China index has fallen more than 10 percent. BlackRock Investment Institute said it sees opportunities in physical AI across geographies, including select infrastructure plays from China to Latin America, but emphasized that manufacturing strength alone does not guarantee attractive equity returns. For investors, the shift toward physical AI broadens the opportunity set beyond the semiconductor names that have dominated the AI trade. S&P 500 consensus earnings growth of 24 percent for 2026 reflects AI's broad economic contribution, but investors need to stay selective about the price paid for that growth, according to J.P. Morgan Research, which flagged AI skepticism as a key risk given elevated valuations in the most crowded names. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
ESG investing funds have shed billions in assets this year as dozens of products close and shareholder advocacy declines, though asset managers argue the strategy is adapting rather than disappearing, a Wall Street Journal analysis published July 5 shows. The strategy remains viable even if pursued more quietly, proponents told the Journal, as asset managers continue integrating environmental and social factors into investment decisions without the public branding that defined the boom years. The outflows mark a sharp reversal from 2020 to 2022, when ESG funds attracted record inflows amid a surge in climate-focused investing. Proxy voting on environmental and social shareholder proposals has also declined, the analysis found, as fund managers reduce public advocacy that had drawn political backlash. The shift carries implications for the asset management industry. If outflows persist, fund managers may face pressure to consolidate products or rebrand strategies, potentially reducing capital allocated to companies with strong environmental and social profiles. The question for investors is whether the strategy can deliver returns without the tailwind of political and regulatory support. The pullback reflects a broader reassessment of sustainable investing across the asset management industry. After years of rapid growth, ESG funds became a political flashpoint in the US, with Republican-led states restricting the use of environmental and social criteria in public pension investments. In Europe, where ESG adoption is more advanced, regulators have tightened rules around fund labeling to prevent greenwashing, adding another layer of pressure on asset managers who had marketed ESG products aggressively during the boom. The decline in proxy voting activity marks one of the clearest indicators of the shift. During the peak ESG era, large asset managers such as BlackRock Inc. and Vanguard Group routinely supported environmental and social shareholder proposals, pushing companies to disclose climate risks and set emissions targets. That engagement has moderated as political pressure mounted and as the investment case for ESG-focused activism came under scrutiny. **A quieter approach takes hold** Some asset managers are responding by dropping the ESG label while maintaining the underlying investment approach. Rather than marketing dedicated ESG funds, firms are integrating sustainability factors into broader investment processes — a shift that preserves the strategy while avoiding the political and reputational risks associated with the ESG brand. The approach mirrors patterns seen in other areas of asset management where strategies fall out of favor. Fund closures and consolidation are typical during downturns, and the surviving products often emerge with stronger performance records and more focused mandates. For investors, the challenge lies in distinguishing between genuine integration and superficial rebranding — a task made harder by the absence of standardized definitions for what constitutes sustainable investing. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**The Trump administration will let individuals and corporations donate shares of stock to government-backed newborn investment accounts, expanding a program set to launch July 4.** The Treasury Department will allow stock donations to "Trump accounts," the government-backed newborn investment accounts created under President Donald Trump's tax and immigration law, officials said Thursday, broadening the funding sources beyond cash contributions. "This opens a new channel for families and philanthropists to build long-term wealth for the next generation," a Treasury official familiar with the policy said. The accounts, launching July 4, provide $1,000 in seed money from the government for every child born during Trump's second term — from Jan. 1, 2025, through Dec. 31, 2028. Parents can contribute up to $2,500 annually in pretax income, with total yearly contributions capped at $5,000. The Treasury has selected BlackRock and Vanguard exchange-traded funds as the underlying investment vehicles, with fees capped at 0.10 percent annually. The stock donation feature could channel significant new capital into U.S. equity markets through a broad base of newborn accounts, reinforcing the administration's pro-investment stance. Billionaires have already pledged billions: Michael Dell and his wife Susan committed $6.25 billion, Ray Dalio pledged $75 million for Connecticut children, and Brad Gerstner offered $250 per child under age 5 in Indiana. ### Stock Donations Broaden the Funding Base The ability to donate shares of stock, rather than cash, allows donors to transfer appreciated securities without triggering capital gains taxes, potentially increasing the size of contributions. The accounts must invest in U.S. equity index funds tracking the stock market, and money cannot be withdrawn until the child turns 18 except for specific purposes such as college tuition or a home down payment. Several major companies have added Trump Account contributions to their benefits packages, including Uber Technologies Inc., Intel Corp., International Business Machines Corp., Nvidia Corp. and Steak 'n Shake. The Dell donation will provide $250 in seed money for children age 10 or under in ZIP codes with median family income of $150,000 or less who are too old to qualify for the government's $1,000. ### Political Scrutiny Intensifies Ahead of Launch The program's rollout has drawn criticism from House Democrats, who released a report Thursday accusing consultants tied to Trump of financial fraud by diverting donations intended for the bipartisan America 250 Foundation to a rival group set up by the administration. The report, based on interviews by Democratic staffers of the House Committee on Natural Resources, suggested donors seeking to celebrate the nation's 250th anniversary may have fallen for a bait-and-switch that could violate criminal statutes. The Treasury has not commented on the allegations. Families can sign up for the accounts at trumpaccounts.gov. Assuming a 7 percent annual return, the $1,000 in government seed money would grow to roughly $3,570 over 18 years, according to the Treasury Department's projections. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**The U.S. Treasury selected five low-cost index ETFs from BlackRock, State Street and Vanguard for Trump Accounts, the federal child savings program set to begin accepting contributions July 4.** The Treasury Department chose BlackRock's iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT), each carrying expense ratios of 0.03%, and named Vanguard's Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) as an alternate fund partner, according to a Wednesday announcement. State Street's SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (SPYM) will serve as the default investment when the accounts begin receiving money, with four additional low-cost index funds available once allocation tools are built out. The expense ratios range between 0.02% and 0.03%, well below the 0.10% fee cap Congress set for the program. "By giving younger Americans the opportunity to start investing earlier, Trump Accounts can help millions build long-term financial security, develop a greater stake in the future of the country, and share more directly in the growth and prosperity of the United States," BlackRock Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said in a statement. Under the program, the Treasury will deposit $1,000 as seed money into an investment account for each child with a valid Social Security number born between Jan. 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2028. More than 6 million children have been enrolled since the start of the year, the Treasury Department reported. Families can contribute up to $5,000 annually in after-tax dollars, with earnings growing tax-free until withdrawal. BNY Mellon serves as financial agent, while Robinhood acts as brokerage and initial trustee. The fund lineup answers one of the most pressing questions financial advisors have faced since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act created the accounts last year, but it leaves significant operational and tax issues unresolved. The Treasury has not clarified how account balances will factor into financial-aid formulas for college, whether pre-18 contributions can later convert to a Roth IRA, or when families will be able to choose among the five funds rather than default into the State Street S&P 500 option. **Unanswered Questions Weigh on Advisor Adoption** Financial advisors have approached Trump Accounts with measured enthusiasm, citing the unresolved regulatory framework. "There's a mix of curiosity and interest when it comes to Trump Accounts," said Judson Meinhart, director of financial planning at Modera Wealth Management. "Clients are intrigued, especially around the 'free' $1,000 government contribution, but they're also asking a lot of practical questions." The Department of Labor's Technical Release 2026-02 clarified that employer matching or pre-tax payroll contributions to a dependent's Trump Account will not trigger ERISA coverage, while Treasury Revenue Procedure 2026-25 provided a safe harbor exempting individual contributions from gift tax reporting. But CFP Board Managing Director of Government Relations Erin Koeppel said most items flagged in a May comment letter remain outstanding, including whether the statutory fee cap applies at the fund level or the account level. BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street have each committed to matching the government's $1,000 contribution for their own employees' children, joining a growing list of employers making similar pledges. BlackRock's charitable arm has also funded financial-literacy campaigns tied to the program, including grants supporting state-level children's savings initiatives. **What Advisors Need to Know Now** For financial advisors, the standout use case is building long-term retirement savings for children, since contributions can begin before a child has earned income — a meaningful differentiator from custodial Roth IRAs. "Trump accounts will likely be a niche solution rather than a default one," Meinhart said, adding that 529 plans remain more tax-efficient for education goals while UTMAs offer greater flexibility for general gifting. The program represents a structural shift in how Americans can begin investing across generations, with the potential to channel billions into low-cost index funds over time. But until the Treasury clarifies the conversion path to Roth IRA rules and the treatment of account balances in financial-aid formulas, many families may treat the $1,000 government seed money as a starting point rather than a primary savings vehicle. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**Wall Street bankers are calling this the most active equity capital markets environment since 2021, with $251 billion in US share sales in the first half alone.** US IPOs and stock issuance totaled a record $251 billion through June 26, excluding blank-check companies and other investment vehicles, Bloomberg-compiled data show. That surpasses the previous half-year record set during 2021's issuance mania. "Even if you take out SpaceX's IPO, volumes are advancing rapidly," said Will Connolly, co-head of equity capital markets in the Americas at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the lead left bank on SpaceX's IPO prospectus. Connolly described a "paradigm shift" in capital markets where the need for equity capital to fund AI infrastructure is being matched by resilient stock prices and strong investor appetite. SpaceX's $86.2 billion listing broke the record for the biggest IPO ever, while Alphabet Inc.'s $85 billion fundraise stands as the year's largest equity deal that wasn't an IPO. Together, they account for more than two-thirds of the half-year total. The weighted-average return for newly-listed US companies excluding SPACs is nearing 16 percent, almost double the S&P 500 Index's return this year, according to Bloomberg data. The record issuance signals that corporate confidence and investor demand for new equity remain strong, particularly in AI and space-related sectors. More deals are in the pipeline, including a potential mega-offering from Anthropic PBC as early as October and SK Hynix Inc.'s planned $29 billion US listing, which is set to kick off the third quarter. **AI Infrastructure Drives the Pipeline** The capital intensity of AI buildout is reshaping equity capital markets. So-called hyperscalers are tapping investors to fund data centers and other infrastructure, with convertible debt also seeing sustained momentum. Eleven US IPOs have raised more than $1 billion so far this year, a pace that JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s global head of private capital advisory and solutions, Keith Canton, said could be matched in the second half. "There could be another dozen jumbo IPOs — think $1 billion-plus — in the second half," Canton said. He expects a pickup in activity from private equity-backed firms that have largely been absent from the biggest IPOs in recent years. AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems Inc. pulled off a $6.38 billion IPO in May after a feverish marketing period, pricing shares well above an already-raised range. Yet the stock has since surrendered its gains and now trades near its IPO price, a reminder that strong debuts don't guarantee long-term returns. **Wall Street Prepares for a Front-Loaded Second Half** Bankers are watching the Federal Reserve closely, with interest rate cuts off the table for the year and traders bracing for a potential rate hike. That unease, combined with November's midterm elections, is shaping the issuance calendar. "It's likely that activity will continue at a high pace over the summer so we're preparing for a busy Q3," said Arnaud Blanchard, co-head of global ECM at Morgan Stanley, which was also a lead bank on SpaceX's offering. "While Q4 is typically a constructive window, we could see some volatility around the midterm elections and so second half activity is likely to be front-loaded into Q3." Private equity-backed names outside the tech universe are also preparing to go public. Roark Capital-owned Inspire Brands Inc. and Jersey Mike's Subs, the sandwich chain backed by Blackstone Inc., have both filed confidentially for IPOs. Yet many buyout firms remain in a holding pattern, waiting for investor enthusiasm to spread beyond AI-related plays. "Some of their companies are very high quality and very large, so they may have outgrown M&A as an option, so I'd expect to see some of them start to come to the public market," Canton said. Lisa Clyde, co-head of global capital markets at Bank of America Corp., summed up the moment in one word: "Epic." She added: "This will be the year everybody talks about for the foreseeable future." This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.