

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, but Chair Kevin Warsh's decision to pull back from forward guidance pushed the 30-year Treasury yield up 14 basis points to 5.23%, its highest level since 2007. "Warsh didn't convey the message clearly or explicitly, and the bond market puked on him," Jon Hilsenrath, a veteran Fed watcher, wrote after the press conference. Christian Hoffmann, head of fixed income at Thornburg Investment Management, said the surge in long yields reflected a market "openly questioning" Warsh's credibility. The 9-3 vote to hold masked the real story. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike — the first unified three-way directional dissent since September 2016. Headline PCE inflation ran at 4.07% in May, up from 2.88% in January, with core PCE at 3.41%. The yield curve told a different story. The 10-year yield rose more than 7 basis points to 4.677% while the 2-year yield fell, widening the 10-year minus 2-year spread to 0.45% from a 12-month low of 0.27% on June 22. Short-end investors priced a cautious Fed; long-end investors priced a credibility problem. The jump in rates deepened losses across the three major U.S. stock indexes, as higher long-term borrowing costs threatened to tighten financing conditions for households and businesses. ## The Silence Strategy Warsh has deliberately pulled the Fed away from forward guidance, arguing the committee needs flexibility and markets should trade real data rather than Fed hints. He said as much on Wednesday: "Prices reacted in real time to incoming information and the reduction in forward guidance may have been a factor," adding that "markets have made decisions because we stepped back, in part, from trying to influence those markets." He declined to say what would trigger a hike. The approach has moved markets before. Earlier in his tenure, a six-word line — "This committee will deliver price stability" — reset investor expectations. The 3.75% upper bound has now held since December 10, 2025, and Warsh, who became chair on May 22, described the internal debate in characteristically punchy terms: "I asked for a good family fight, and I got one." ## What It Means for Bond ETFs Higher long-term yields mean higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government, businesses, and consumers — and pain for long-duration bond investors. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), holding 46 bonds with a weighted-average maturity of 26.06 years, has delivered negative annualized returns of 6.66 percent over the past five years despite a 5.13 percent SEC yield. When rates rise, long bonds fall hardest. The iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI), with 83 bonds averaging 4.7 years to maturity, has held up better, returning 0.35 percent annualized over five years and 3.95 percent over three. Its shorter duration makes it less vulnerable to rising rates. Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said the Fed should have raised rates if it wanted to bring inflation back to 2 percent. The surge in bond yields was the market's message to Warsh. The probability of a September hike fell to 65.2 percent from 76 percent before the press conference. If inflation fails to cool and long yields keep climbing, long-term Treasury ETFs face more pain; shorter-duration funds offer a safer haven. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Chery Group sold 276,820 vehicles in July, up 23.3 percent year-on-year, with exports crossing 200,000 units for the first time by a Chinese automaker. "International markets are strategically important to our future growth," Yin Tongyue, chairman of Chery Group, said at the FREELANDER 8 roll-off ceremony at the company's Changshu manufacturing base in Jiangsu province. July exports reached 202,533 units, up 70.1 percent year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales hit 129,067 units, a 97.5 percent surge. In the first seven months of 2026, Chery delivered 1,634,353 vehicles, up 10.1 percent, with cumulative exports of 1,146,350 units, up 71.2 percent, and NEV sales of 604,305 units, up 42.3 percent. The record export month cements Chery's position as China's No.1 automotive exporter, with more than 19.38 million cumulative global owners. The company is accelerating international expansion through its FREELANDER joint venture with Jaguar Land Rover, which began mass production of the FREELANDER 8 at the $3.1 billion Changshu facility, with a Middle East debut planned for September in Abu Dhabi. The FREELANDER Super Factory, backed by a total investment exceeding $3.1 billion plus an additional $440 million in new energy intelligent manufacturing upgrades, features more than 1,100 robots and end-to-end digital quality traceability systems. Test vehicles have arrived in the Middle East for road testing across desert, coastal and urban environments ahead of the brand's Abu Dhabi launch. Chery's export momentum comes as Chinese automakers continue to gain share in markets including Mexico, where they face 50 percent import tariffs, and Canada, which opened a limited EV quota in early 2026. Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley told employees in July that the automaker is preparing for Chinese rivals entering the US market within five to ten years, with the first meaningful indicator expected from Canadian sales data. BYD, Chery's main domestic rival, has also been expanding overseas, passing 100,000 UK sales in three years. The July figures extend Chery's growth trajectory from April, when the group sold 251,386 vehicles with exports of 100,276 units and NEV sales of 102,102 units, up 102.4 percent year-on-year. The acceleration in export volume — nearly doubling from April to July — reflects deepening demand across emerging markets and the Middle East. The record export performance points to sustained demand for Chinese-built vehicles globally, with implications for the broader supply chain including battery makers and component suppliers. Investors will watch Chery's August sales data and the FREELANDER 8's Abu Dhabi debut in September for the next read on the group's international growth. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Freddie Mac reported second-quarter net income of $3.8 billion, up 61% from a year earlier, as an $880 million credit reserve release and higher net interest income lifted results. "Freddie Mac delivered strong second quarter financial results, reflecting the strength of the business and disciplined execution against our priorities," Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and chairman of Freddie Mac's board, said. Net revenues rose 1% to $6.0 billion, with net interest income up 13% to $6.0 billion and net interest yield at 69 basis points. Non-interest income swung to a $19 million loss from $617 million in income a year earlier, while non-interest expense fell 3% to $2.1 billion. Net worth climbed 20% to $77.8 billion, lifting the senior preferred stock liquidation preference to $146.6 billion, set to reach $150.4 billion on Sept. 30. Shares were unchanged at $28.40, leaving the stock about 25% below its 52-week high of $37.80. The Single-Family segment generated $3.3 billion of net income, up 57%, on $5.1 billion of net revenues. New business activity reached $110 billion, up from $94 billion a year earlier, driven by refinance volume that doubled to 106,000 borrowers. The segment recorded an $846 million credit benefit versus a $622 million provision a year earlier after Freddie Mac revised its house-price scenario process. The company now expects home prices to rise 1.7% over the next 12 months and 2.1% in the following 12 months, up from prior forecasts of 0.5% and 1.4%. Multifamily net income jumped 90% to $561 million as the segment shifted toward fully guaranteed securitizations, which carry higher guarantee fees. New business activity rose 58% to $18 billion, financing 133,000 rental units, with 91% of eligible units affordable to low- and moderate-income families. Credit quality showed some pressure. The single-family serious delinquency rate rose to 0.60% from 0.55% a year earlier, and multifamily delinquency climbed to 0.51%. Credit enhancements covered 61% of the single-family portfolio and 92% of multifamily. The results highlight a widening gap between accounting net worth and regulatory capital. Adjusted total capital stood at $0.5 billion against a $161 billion requirement including buffers, leaving a $101 billion shortfall excluding buffers because the $73 billion of senior preferred stock does not qualify as regulatory capital. Investors will watch whether the FHFA advances any recapitalization framework that could alter the senior preferred claim, which is scheduled to rise to $150.4 billion on Sept. 30. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.