

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, but Chair Kevin Warsh's decision to pull back from forward guidance pushed the 30-year Treasury yield up 14 basis points to 5.23%, its highest level since 2007. "Warsh didn't convey the message clearly or explicitly, and the bond market puked on him," Jon Hilsenrath, a veteran Fed watcher, wrote after the press conference. Christian Hoffmann, head of fixed income at Thornburg Investment Management, said the surge in long yields reflected a market "openly questioning" Warsh's credibility. The 9-3 vote to hold masked the real story. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike — the first unified three-way directional dissent since September 2016. Headline PCE inflation ran at 4.07% in May, up from 2.88% in January, with core PCE at 3.41%. The yield curve told a different story. The 10-year yield rose more than 7 basis points to 4.677% while the 2-year yield fell, widening the 10-year minus 2-year spread to 0.45% from a 12-month low of 0.27% on June 22. Short-end investors priced a cautious Fed; long-end investors priced a credibility problem. The jump in rates deepened losses across the three major U.S. stock indexes, as higher long-term borrowing costs threatened to tighten financing conditions for households and businesses. ## The Silence Strategy Warsh has deliberately pulled the Fed away from forward guidance, arguing the committee needs flexibility and markets should trade real data rather than Fed hints. He said as much on Wednesday: "Prices reacted in real time to incoming information and the reduction in forward guidance may have been a factor," adding that "markets have made decisions because we stepped back, in part, from trying to influence those markets." He declined to say what would trigger a hike. The approach has moved markets before. Earlier in his tenure, a six-word line — "This committee will deliver price stability" — reset investor expectations. The 3.75% upper bound has now held since December 10, 2025, and Warsh, who became chair on May 22, described the internal debate in characteristically punchy terms: "I asked for a good family fight, and I got one." ## What It Means for Bond ETFs Higher long-term yields mean higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government, businesses, and consumers — and pain for long-duration bond investors. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), holding 46 bonds with a weighted-average maturity of 26.06 years, has delivered negative annualized returns of 6.66 percent over the past five years despite a 5.13 percent SEC yield. When rates rise, long bonds fall hardest. The iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI), with 83 bonds averaging 4.7 years to maturity, has held up better, returning 0.35 percent annualized over five years and 3.95 percent over three. Its shorter duration makes it less vulnerable to rising rates. Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of DoubleLine Capital, said the Fed should have raised rates if it wanted to bring inflation back to 2 percent. The surge in bond yields was the market's message to Warsh. The probability of a September hike fell to 65.2 percent from 76 percent before the press conference. If inflation fails to cool and long yields keep climbing, long-term Treasury ETFs face more pain; shorter-duration funds offer a safer haven. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Freddie Mac reported second-quarter net income of $3.8 billion, up 61% from a year earlier, as an $880 million credit reserve release and higher net interest income lifted results. "Freddie Mac delivered strong second quarter financial results, reflecting the strength of the business and disciplined execution against our priorities," Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and chairman of Freddie Mac's board, said. Net revenues rose 1% to $6.0 billion, with net interest income up 13% to $6.0 billion and net interest yield at 69 basis points. Non-interest income swung to a $19 million loss from $617 million in income a year earlier, while non-interest expense fell 3% to $2.1 billion. Net worth climbed 20% to $77.8 billion, lifting the senior preferred stock liquidation preference to $146.6 billion, set to reach $150.4 billion on Sept. 30. Shares were unchanged at $28.40, leaving the stock about 25% below its 52-week high of $37.80. The Single-Family segment generated $3.3 billion of net income, up 57%, on $5.1 billion of net revenues. New business activity reached $110 billion, up from $94 billion a year earlier, driven by refinance volume that doubled to 106,000 borrowers. The segment recorded an $846 million credit benefit versus a $622 million provision a year earlier after Freddie Mac revised its house-price scenario process. The company now expects home prices to rise 1.7% over the next 12 months and 2.1% in the following 12 months, up from prior forecasts of 0.5% and 1.4%. Multifamily net income jumped 90% to $561 million as the segment shifted toward fully guaranteed securitizations, which carry higher guarantee fees. New business activity rose 58% to $18 billion, financing 133,000 rental units, with 91% of eligible units affordable to low- and moderate-income families. Credit quality showed some pressure. The single-family serious delinquency rate rose to 0.60% from 0.55% a year earlier, and multifamily delinquency climbed to 0.51%. Credit enhancements covered 61% of the single-family portfolio and 92% of multifamily. The results highlight a widening gap between accounting net worth and regulatory capital. Adjusted total capital stood at $0.5 billion against a $161 billion requirement including buffers, leaving a $101 billion shortfall excluding buffers because the $73 billion of senior preferred stock does not qualify as regulatory capital. Investors will watch whether the FHFA advances any recapitalization framework that could alter the senior preferred claim, which is scheduled to rise to $150.4 billion on Sept. 30. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Tesla's supervised Full Self-Driving subscriptions hit 1.48 million active users in the second quarter, up 56 percent year over year, putting the $99-a-month plan on pace for about $1.8 billion in annual revenue. "We're seeing in locations that have FSD approved, we're seeing a very high take rate of FSD," Chief Executive Elon Musk said on the earnings call, adding that customers want the software with whatever car it's paired with. The subscription base still represents a small slice of Tesla's roughly $94.8 billion in annual revenue last year, but FSD subscriptions carry significantly higher margins than the core electric-vehicle business, so the segment should account for a larger share of operating profit than revenue. Tesla's FSD fleet has also accumulated more than 12 billion cumulative miles on the road, feeding real-world data back into the software's training loop. The network effect is the long-term prize. More drivers mean more training data, which improves the software and attracts more subscribers — a flywheel that also feeds Tesla's robotaxi ambitions, where it trails Alphabet's Waymo. Tesla shares, down 28 percent this year, could rebound if the company scales its robotaxi fleet within the next year. ## The Subscription Flywheel FSD subscriptions are growing as Tesla earns regulatory approvals in more regions. Musk's comments suggest the take rate climbs wherever the software is approved, a dynamic that could sustain demand for Tesla's EVs themselves. The 12 billion cumulative miles driven by the FSD fleet create a data advantage that rivals cannot easily replicate — every mile trains the model, and a better model attracts more paying drivers. ## Robotaxi Race and the Valuation Question The subscription revenue is small relative to Tesla's vehicle sales, but its high margins make it a meaningful profit lever. The bigger opportunity sits in robotaxis, where Tesla competes with Waymo, the Alphabet unit that has led the commercial self-driving market. If Tesla can scale its robotaxi fleet within the next year and close the gap with Waymo, the stock could rebound from its 28 percent year-to-date decline. Considerable uncertainty remains. Tesla must secure additional FSD approvals in other regions, train its software to handle edge cases, and prove its robotaxi economics. In the meantime, the company's capital spending is rising rapidly, squeezing profits and margins as it doubles down on these bets. For investors, the question is whether the market has priced in the subscription growth. Tesla shares, down 28 percent this year, trade at a premium to traditional automakers, reflecting expectations for the software and robotaxi businesses. The $1.8 billion subscription run rate is a start, but it remains a fraction of the roughly $94.8 billion in annual revenue — and the path to a robotaxi fleet that justifies the valuation is still unproven. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.