Strait of Hormuz reopening odds plunge to 47% as oil risks mount

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[1] Strait of Hormuz traffic may not return to normal for 12 months or more, according to prediction markets (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/odds-that-the ...)[2] Why the gas price surge may be just the start (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-t ...)[3] Wall Street sees recession risk fading in 2026, but 2027 flashing warning signs (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wall- ...)[4] Brent crude retreats, but a 14% weekly jump says the danger is not fading (https://invezz.com/news/2026/07/24/brent-crud ...)[5] Why the Federal Reserve should hike rates next week (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/24/why-the-feder ...)

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Jul 24 2026, 20:09

Trump threatens EU tariffs after $1B Google fine, Ireland seeks stability

**Ireland's ambassador to the US called for stabilizing transatlantic trade after President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on European Union goods in retaliation for a $1 billion antitrust fine against Alphabet Inc.'s Google.** Trump threatened tariffs on EU goods after a $1 billion Google antitrust fine, pushing the bloc's top diplomat in Washington to call for stabilizing trade relations that already face levies on $7.2 billion in imports. "It's in Ireland's interest to stabilize trade relations between the US and the EU," Geraldine Byrne Nason, Ireland's ambassador to the United States, said Friday. The European Commission fined Google €890 million ($1 billion) Thursday for violating the Digital Markets Act by steering consumers toward its own services through Google Play and search. Trump responded on social media by announcing a formal Section 301 trade investigation into EU practices, calling the bloc's enforcement "illegal and highly unethical conduct." The US this week imposed double-digit tariffs on imports from more than 60 countries under a separate forced-labor enforcement regime, replacing temporary 10% worldwide levies that Trump enacted after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier tariff program. The dispute threatens to escalate a transatlantic trade war that already covers billions of dollars in goods. Alphabet reported $403 billion in revenue last year, and the EU designates Google parent Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft as "gatekeepers" subject to its digital rules. If Trump follows through on threatened tariffs, the levies could hit EU machinery, pharmaceuticals and chemicals — sectors that accounted for roughly $350 billion in US-bound exports last year. **A $1B Fine Triggers a Trade Probe** The EU's antitrust action against Google was the latest in a series of crackdowns targeting Silicon Valley giants under the Digital Markets Act, which took full effect in 2024. Google's president of global affairs, Kent Walker, called the fine "product degradation driven by a small group of self-serving complainants" that would hurt European businesses and consumers. The European Commission's executive vice president, Teresa Ribera, defended the decision, saying "the best products should succeed because they're better, not because they're owned by the company running the search engine." Trump's threatened retaliation follows a pattern. The last major US-EU tariff escalation — over Airbus and Boeing subsidies — saw the US impose 25% tariffs on $7.5 billion in European goods in 2019, which the EU countered with levies on $4 billion in US products. That dispute took four years to resolve through negotiated aircraft subsidies. **Ireland's Diplomatic Tightrope** Ireland, home to the European headquarters of Google, Apple, Meta and other US tech giants, has outsized exposure to the dispute. US companies employ roughly 170,000 people in Ireland directly, and the country's corporate tax revenue — which surged to €24 billion in 2025 — is heavily tied to American multinational profits booked there. Byrne Nason's call for stabilization reflects Dublin's interest in avoiding tariffs that could disrupt investment flows and corporate structures built around Ireland's 12.5% corporate tax rate. The European Commission has shown no sign of backing down. "In the EU, businesses have the right to compete fairly," commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier said. "Gatekeepers have the obligation to ensure a level playing field and consumers the right to choose for cheaper alternative offers." This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Jul 24 2026, 19:52

Bessent says Fort Knox gold intact after 52 years without proper audit

**Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the gold at Fort Knox is all accounted for — yet the last meaningful inspection of the 15-vault facility was a 1974 publicity stunt.** Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the gold at Fort Knox is "all present and accounted for" during a Fox News interview Thursday, ending calls for an audit of a facility that last underwent a transparent inspection in 1974. "I haven't. People on my staff have. The treasurer has been to Fort Knox, and I'm happy to say all gold is present and accounted for," Bessent told host Jesse Watters when asked whether he had visited the facility. The last publicized inspection of Fort Knox occurred in 1974, when the Treasury opened one of the 15 vault compartments to politicians and reporters. During that two-hour visit, no gold bars were matched to serial numbers, assayed for purity or verified as part of US holdings, according to contemporaneous accounts cited by analysts. The Treasury has since described multi-year compartment inventorying as audits, though those efforts did not include independent verification or published results. The lack of a rigorous external audit matters because the US gold reserve serves as a cornerstone of global financial confidence. If doubts about the integrity of those holdings spread, the resulting uncertainty could push gold prices higher and pressure the US dollar, particularly as the US engages in trade conflicts with 60 nations and military operations in the Middle East. The 1974 event was more political theater than financial oversight. For about two hours, film crews and politicians filed through a single hallway to hold gold bars and peer into a room stacked with bullion. On their way out, each visitor passed a metal inspector to ensure no bars were being smuggled out. No bars were weighed, assayed or cross-referenced against Treasury records. The Treasury says it later conducted a multi-year process of opening and inventorying vault compartments, affixing new tamper-evident seals upon completion. But those efforts fell short of basic accounting standards. Some compartment seals have since been broken and re-affixed without fresh auditing, according to reports cited by analysts. Subsequent annual reviews of seal schedules simply whitewashed prior discrepancies. The resistance to an independent audit has puzzled market observers. In any other business setting, regular external audits are standard practice. The insistence that an audit is unnecessary — and the indignation sometimes directed at those who propose one — raises questions about what a proper inspection might reveal. The stakes extend beyond transparency. The US holds the world's largest official gold reserves, and any erosion of confidence in those holdings could have tangible market consequences. Gold has historically served as a hedge against dollar weakness and fiscal uncertainty. A sustained gold rally driven by reserve doubts would ripple through currency markets, sovereign credit assessments and inflation expectations. The last time US gold reserve integrity was publicly questioned, during the 1974 inspection, gold was trading around $150 an ounce and the dollar was under pressure from the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Today, with gold near record levels and the dollar index facing headwinds from trade tariffs and geopolitical instability, the stakes are considerably higher. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Jul 24 2026, 19:49

Skyworks Solutions Q3 earnings preview: $922M revenue at stake

Skyworks Solutions is expected to report fiscal third-quarter revenue of $922.08 million on July 28, down 4.45% from a year earlier. "Healthy sell-through at key customers and strong execution on new product launches support our outlook, with increasing RF complexity driven by AI workloads," management said in its prior guidance. The company guided non-GAAP earnings of $1.03 per share at the midpoint of its $900 million to $950 million revenue range. The consensus estimate has held steady at $1.03 per share over the past 30 days, representing a 22.56% decline from the year-ago quarter. Skyworks has beaten consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 12.31%. The report comes as Skyworks navigates seasonal weakness in its mobile business, which management expects to decline low single digits sequentially. Broad markets, accounting for 43% of sales, are projected to rise modestly sequentially and up high single digits year over year, driven by WiFi, data center and automotive demand. Those three engines collectively grew 30% year over year in the prior quarter and account for nearly two-thirds of the broad markets business. The company secured a multigenerational Android design win expected to generate more than $1 billion in revenue through 2030, reinforcing its position in premium AI-enabled smartphones. Book-to-bill stood above 1, and channel inventories remained lean, according to management. Gross margin is projected at 44.5% to 45.5%, flat sequentially. In the fiscal second quarter, gross margin was 45%, contracting 160 basis points year over year. Skyworks has introduced new BAW filters targeting early 6G FR3 spectrum and next-generation RF front-end solutions supporting frequencies above 7 gigahertz. The company also expanded its timing portfolio with new clock buffers for data center, wireless infrastructure and PCIe Gen 7 applications. The earnings report will test whether Skyworks can sustain its four-quarter beat streak during mobile seasonality. Investors will focus on broad markets growth trajectory and any updates to the Android design win ramp when the company reports after market close on July 28. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.