

Houthi forces took the Red Sea port of Mocha on Sept. 10, the government army's last major Bab-el-Mandeb outpost at Zubab on Sept. 11 and Perim Island, giving the militia artillery range over a waterway that carried roughly 12 percent of global seaborne oil before the current war. "The Houthis now hold enough ground that artillery alone can control this waterway," Li Zixin, an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, said in a CCTV commentary. "Houthi maritime restrictions on Saudi Arabia continue, and the kingdom's east-west pipeline has been shut by drone strikes." Saudi warplanes flew 129 sorties across seven Yemeni provinces in the 48 hours to Sept. 12, hitting Taiz, Marib, Hodeida, Al-Jawf, Saada, Al-Bayda and Hajjah, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said. Saudi Arabia's civil defense directorate said a Houthi strike on Tuwal district in Jizan province wounded two people and damaged buildings and vehicles, calling the targeting of civilian sites "a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law." The Saudi-led coalition separately accused the Houthis of missile and drone attacks on Abha, Khamis Mushait and Jazan. Brent crude has held a war-risk premium since the U.S.-Iran conflict began throttling Hormuz traffic, and the Bab-el-Mandeb seizure compounds it: with Hormuz constrained and the Saudi east-west pipeline offline, the kingdom's two export routes are simultaneously impaired. Red Sea war-risk insurance premiums and Cape of Good Hope rerouting costs rise with each escalation, extending voyage lengths and lifting freight rates for refiners in Europe and Asia. ## Washington declines to strike, and Riyadh's options narrow President Donald Trump said on Sept. 12 that Washington had spoken with the Houthis, who told U.S. officials they do not want war with America. The Houthis have not publicly confirmed the call. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman telephoned Trump twice on Sept. 10 to request U.S. airstrikes on Houthi targets, according to reports; Washington declined direct military action and offered intelligence and targeting support instead. The White House and Saudi officials have not publicly confirmed the calls. That restraint caps Riyadh's escalation ladder. Saudi Arabia can sustain airstrikes, but its ground partners are the weak link: the Yemeni government army lost Mocha, the Hanish islands and other positions within nine days, with some units withdrawing before contact. A full civil war restart is a real risk, and the Houthis are likely to convert battlefield gains into negotiating leverage rather than pursue total victory. Iran's position is deliberately narrow. President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sept. 12 in India that Iran and Saudi Arabia "are not in a state of war" and that regional states should build security together. Three days earlier, Reuters reported, Pakistan conveyed a Saudi warning to Tehran: restrain the Houthis or the conflict becomes a wider regional security crisis. A senior Iranian official confirmed the message and said Iran "cannot control the Houthis." ## The Mecca pact faces its first test That exchange matters because Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed a defense agreement in August treating an attack on one as an attack on all three. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said on Sept. 8 that any unprovoked attack on Yemen, or spillover from Yemen into Saudi territory, would trigger the pact. Israel's Jerusalem Post called it the first test of the Mecca defense alliance. Turkey's foreign ministry urged the Houthis to halt "aggressive actions immediately," while Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Qatar's foreign ministry condemned the strikes on Saudi energy sites. The historical template is the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais attack, when drones knocked out 5.7 million barrels a day of Saudi processing capacity — about half the kingdom's output — and Brent jumped 14.6 percent in a single session, the largest one-day gain in the contract's history. That spike faded within two weeks because capacity was restored. A chokepoint seizure is harder to reverse than a damaged processing plant: it requires ground forces to retake terrain, not repair crews. For markets, the transmission chain runs from Houthi guns at Perim to war-risk premia on Red Sea transits, then to freight rates, then to delivered crude costs for European and Asian refiners, and finally to headline inflation prints that constrain central bank easing. Gold and Treasuries draw haven bids; tanker equities and defense names outperform while airlines and refiners with Red Sea exposure lag. The next markers are whether Saudi Arabia launches a ground offensive in Taiz and Marib, whether Pakistan's pact language is tested by further Houthi strikes inside the kingdom, and whether Washington's diplomatic channel produces any Houthi commitment on shipping. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Prudential Financial plans to cut the number of insurance and retirement markets it operates in by roughly half, a retreat Chairman and CEO Andy Sullivan said will free "well north of $3 billion" in capital for global retirement, asset management and select protection businesses. "Our goal, as we've said, is to be category leaders in those businesses," Sullivan said at a company event, describing the geographic reduction as a way to concentrate talent, capital and investment rather than a simple cost exercise. The Newark, New Jersey-based insurer, which trades on the NYSE under PRU, currently operates in more than a dozen markets. Alongside the exits, it targets $750 million in cost reductions by the end of 2028, with a first $150 million tranche due by the end of 2027. The savings come from four buckets: fewer management layers, technology spending on infrastructure consolidation, automation and artificial intelligence, expanded global capability centers in Ireland and India, and operational changes across all businesses including Japan. The company also wants PGIM, its $1.3 trillion asset-management arm, to lift its share of Prudential's earnings from about 12% to 25% over roughly five years. Sullivan said about half of that gain should come organically, mainly in direct lending, asset-backed finance and other private-credit capabilities, with acquisitions supplying the rest. Asset-management margins are targeted at 30% and eventually above that level, while Prudential aims for a further 150-basis-point cut in insurance operating expense ratios over three years. ## Exits and deals run in parallel, not in sequence Sullivan said Prudential is pursuing divestitures and acquisitions at the same time. Beyond asset-sale proceeds, the company could use reinsurance — third-party arrangements or its affiliated Prismic platform — to generate capital for transactions. Suspending share repurchases and issuing equity remain available but face high thresholds, he said. The acquisition net has widened beyond small and mid-sized asset-management deals. Prudential is evaluating targets in asset management, group insurance and a selective build-out of U.K. retirement capabilities. Within asset management it is looking at specialized buys such as infrastructure equity and broader multi-asset platforms that could deliver revenue and expense savings, with private alternatives and private credit of particular interest. In group insurance, it sees room to add dental and vision products and to reach employers below its current 1,000-employee sweet spot. In the U.K., Prudential recently announced a partnership involving Standard Life and CVC to enter the bulk purchase annuity market. PGIM's shift from a multi-manager structure to a single integrated platform was driven by client demand for fewer, broader relationships, Sullivan said. Only about 10% of PGIM clients currently use more than one asset class, which he called a significant cross-selling opportunity. The integrated distribution operation has already sold cross-asset mandates, and Prudential has not lost distribution talent it wanted to keep. He expects more than $150 million of costs to come out of the asset-management business over time, as previously separate units had carried duplicative leadership and functional roles. Public equities remain a drag. Sullivan said PGIM's Jennison business has seen systemic outflows, though earnings have been supported by equity-market performance. Outside public equities, management is encouraged by flow opportunities and mandate wins. ## Japan remediation runs in phases over 12 to 18 months Prudential remains on track with remediation at Prudential of Japan after halting sales to address sales-practice and conduct issues, but the precise date for resuming sales depends partly on talks with regulators and other stakeholders. Sullivan said the reopening will happen in phases over 12 to 18 months to test new controls, and that the company believes it is performing better than the assumptions already baked into its outlook. At Gibraltar, Prudential's other major Japanese life operation, Sullivan said the company found no systemic issues. Prudential contacted more than 6 million customers in Japan during the review, and responses pointed to fewer problems than management had expected. He described Japan as a long-term retirement opportunity given the country's wealth, longevity and retirement-income needs, adding that higher interest rates are helping Prudential offer more attractive yen-denominated products and should provide a natural portfolio tailwind over time. The objective, Sullivan said, is top-quartile earnings growth over a five-year strategic period, excluding the runoff of variable annuities, driven by global retirement, global asset management and select protection. For holders, the plan's value hinges on whether the $3 billion in released capital is redeployed above Prudential's cost of capital rather than returned, since Sullivan said every dollar deployed must clear that bar. The $750 million savings target is the nearer-term proof point: the first $150 million tranche lands by the end of 2027, and the pace of divestiture announcements between now and then will show whether the footprint reduction is moving on schedule. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

America's housing market has never been this lopsided. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 57.9% nationally in August, the widest gap in Redfin records dating to 2013 and up from 52.1% a month earlier, which itself was the second-strongest buyer's market ever measured. "With sellers piling into the market and demand falling flat, today's house hunters can afford to be choosy," Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, said. "Even during a time when housing costs are elevated, the surplus of sellers over buyers makes it a good time to be a house hunter, in some respects." The mechanics behind the record are a supply surge meeting frozen demand. Redfin counted 1,534,918 active sellers in August, the most since the start of 2020 and a 3.9% month-over-month jump — the largest single-month increase in the series. Buyers totaled 972,300, up just 0.1% from July, when their number hit the lowest level Redfin has recorded. The average 30-year mortgage rate sits at 6.76%, and with Fed rate-hike odds near 90%, borrowing costs are still moving the wrong way for anyone trying to qualify. That is the paradox at the center of the August report: the strongest buyer's market on record is not producing a buying boom. Leverage that cannot be financed is not leverage. Price growth tells the same story — homes in the five remaining seller's markets appreciated 5.5% year over year, while the 36 buyer's markets managed 1.6%. ## The Sun Belt is where the gap is widest The imbalance is not evenly distributed. All 10 of the strongest buyer's markets sit in the Sun Belt, and four are in Texas. Nashville posted 139.3% more sellers than buyers, the widest gap of any metro Redfin tracks, followed by Miami at 138% and Houston at 131%. Orlando (122%), Las Vegas (117%), San Antonio (116%), Austin (115%) and Dallas (108%) all cleared the two-to-one threshold. Houston, Orlando, Las Vegas, Dallas and Nashville each set metro records in August. The driver is a construction pipeline that kept running after demand cooled. Texas, Florida and Tennessee have some of the most active homebuilding programs in the country, so newly built homes keep reaching the market even as local buyers get priced out — in Miami's case by rising insurance costs, higher HOA fees and climate risk. The mirror image is a short list of five seller's markets concentrated where building has been constrained for years: Nassau County, NY (-28%), Newark (-21%), Montgomery County, PA (-20%), Milwaukee (-18%) and San Francisco (-12%). San Francisco has now been classified as a seller's market twice in four years, helped by wealth created in the AI boom. ## From housing activity to Treasury yields Housing is the most rate-sensitive sector in the US economy, which is why the August reading matters beyond real estate agents. Weak transaction volume feeds through to construction payrolls, furniture and appliance spending, and eventually to corporate earnings — the channel through which monetary tightening has historically reached the broader economy. Home prices do not need to fall for that pressure to register; activity simply needs to stay weak long enough. The cross-asset read is two-sided. Higher Treasury yields restrict liquidity and make risk assets less attractive, a drag that has historically hit Bitcoin and the S&P 500 together — IMF research has found tighter US monetary policy tends to hurt crypto alongside equities. But sustained housing weakness is also the kind of evidence that pushes yields lower and strengthens the case for easier policy, which would improve the liquidity backdrop for both. Lenders are already repricing around the stalemate rather than waiting for the Fed. Rocket Pro raised its conforming loan limit to $845,000 for one-unit properties, ahead of the Federal Housing Finance Agency's annual adjustment, targeting borrowers who sit just above the conforming threshold. United Wholesale Mortgage extended its Bullseye 90 pricing incentive and removed high-balance loan-level price adjustments through October 30. "In a challenging market, it really requires a lot of the lenders to be creative with the solutions that they're providing," Kyle Schoenmaker, senior vice president of sales at Rocket Pro, said. "If I had to offer one piece of advice for all of the brokers out there, it would be to stay curious." The next test is the FHFA's conforming loan limit announcement and the Fed's September decision, where futures currently price a hike rather than a cut. If mortgage rates break below 6.5% and buyer counts start rising off July's record low, the seller surplus should compress quickly — the inventory is already there. If rates hold near 6.76% or climb, expect the gap to widen again in September, with the Sun Belt metros leading and homebuilder order books absorbing the difference. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.