

**WTI crude surged to $88 a barrel, a six-week high, as President Trump threatened to bomb facilities in or near Tehran if Iran attacks ships in the Strait of Hormuz, while Cushing crude inventories fell 674,000 barrels to near operational minimums, compounding supply risks that Goldman Sachs warned could push Brent above $120.** President Trump said Wednesday on Truth Social that any Iranian attack on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger US strikes on "a bridge or power plant, including facilities located in or near Tehran." The threat marked a geographic escalation from previous warnings focused on coastal military targets. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the US would continue attacks "as long as Iran tries to control shipping traffic," while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signaled potential expansion to include Yemen's Houthi rebels, who on Monday announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. "This is a dangerous precedent — if a nation state can control an international waterway, charge a toll and blow up ships that don't pay, it will repeat in other regions," Rubio said at an ASEAN meeting in Manila, warning the principle could extend to Asian waterways. The geopolitical escalation converged with tightening physical supply. Cushing, Oklahoma — the delivery point for WTI futures — saw inventories drop 674,000 barrels last week, pushing storage levels toward the operational minimum that typically triggers price spikes in the front-month contract. US crude production also slipped from its record high, even as the rig count continued rising, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve accelerated releases. Overall commercial crude inventories rose 2.01 million barrels, above the 500,000-barrel draw the market expected, but traders focused on the Cushing bottleneck rather than the headline number. **The $4 Gasoline Threshold** US retail gasoline prices returned to an average of $4 a gallon, a level that historically pressures consumer spending and erodes approval ratings. The national average stood at $3.14 a year ago. Brent crude rose 3.2% to $90.95 a barrel Monday, while benchmark US crude climbed 2.8% to $84.04, before extending gains through midweek. Goldman Sachs warned that if the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists, Brent could break above $120, a scenario that would push gasoline prices well beyond the current threshold. **Two Chokepoints Under Threat** The Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas once passed — remains effectively closed after Iran blockaded the waterway and attacked tankers using a southern route hugging Oman's coast. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Tuesday it stopped two "non-compliant oil tankers" attempting to transit the strait. At least five vessels, including crude tankers carrying Saudi oil, made u-turns before reaching the Bab el-Mandeb strait after the Houthis threatened to block Saudi-linked ships. The Saudi military has vowed to keep the Bab el-Mandeb open, but the simultaneous threat to both chokepoints leaves global energy supply chains exposed to disruption on two fronts. The US completed an 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran on Tuesday, targeting aircraft hangars, drone storage and operations centers. Trump also threatened to strike the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility "pretty soon, and very heavily," though he acknowledged some Iranian ballistic missiles have survived US bombing campaigns because they are buried underground. The war has cost about $37.5 billion so far, Hegseth told lawmakers, with sources saying the actual figure could be far higher once military construction and base repairs are included. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

**A binding agreement between CN and Union Pacific will expand Chicago rail access and open a new freight corridor connecting Canada to Mexico.** Canadian National Railway and Union Pacific signed a binding agreement granting each other operating rights across key US corridors, creating a direct rail link between Canada, the US and Mexico. "We are thrilled to have an agreement with Union Pacific to expand CN's access to Mexico," said Tracy Robinson, President and CEO of CN. "This is a natural extension of our north-south franchise and will open new routes for customers." The pact gives Union Pacific expanded rights over CN's Elgin, Joliet & Eastern Railway corridor around Chicago — the busiest US rail hub — while granting CN access to Union Pacific's network between Memphis, Tennessee, and Eagle Pass, Texas, a key border crossing for Mexico-bound freight. The agreement positions both railroads to capture growing cross-border trade flows as North American supply chains shift toward nearshoring. Canada-Mexico bilateral trade reached C$48.6 billion in 2025, up 18 percent from 2020, according to Statistics Canada, with rail carrying a significant share of industrial goods and energy products. The MOU builds on CN's broader push to expand its north-south franchise. The railroad is also advancing the Alberta Corridor Export Rail Terminal Project with Keyera Corp. and AltaGas Ltd., a C$240 million investment designed to move 45,000 barrels per day of propane and butane from Alberta's Industrial Heartland to West Coast export facilities by mid-2028. CN's propane export volumes are already accelerating. Shipments from South Beamer, Alberta, to Watson Island, British Columbia, hit an all-time monthly record in May, with carloads rising 40 percent from a year earlier, the railroad said. **Chicago rail congestion and the EJ&E bet** For Union Pacific, the deal provides access to the EJ&E route — a 198-mile bypass around Chicago that CN acquired in 2008 for US$300 million to ease congestion through the city's crowded rail network. "I've seen the benefits first-hand of what the EJ&E route around Chicago can do for a railroad," said Jim Vena, CEO of Union Pacific. Chicago handles roughly one-third of all US rail freight, and delays there ripple across the entire North American network. The Illinois Tollway is simultaneously advancing the US$26.5 billion I-490 project west of O'Hare International Airport, which includes bridges spanning Union Pacific tracks — a sign of the infrastructure demands created by rising freight volumes. **Cross-border growth trajectory** The Canada-Mexico rail corridor has become a strategic priority for both countries as companies diversify supply chains away from Asia. Mexico surpassed China as the top US trade partner in 2023, and Canadian rail shipments to Mexico have grown at an average annual rate of 8 percent over the past five years, according to Association of American Railroads data. The agreement does not require regulatory approval from the US Surface Transportation Board, the companies said, as it involves operating rights rather than a change in control. The binding MOU sets the stage for final implementation agreements in the coming months. For CN, the Memphis-to-Eagle Pass route fills a critical gap in its network. The railroad already serves the Canadian and US Midwest markets but lacked direct access to the Mexican border through its own rights. Union Pacific, which operates the largest US rail network west of the Mississippi, gains a faster path through Chicago — a bottleneck that has historically added 24 to 48 hours of transit time for trains routed through the city's congested railyards. The deal also carries implications for the broader North American logistics sector. Rail accounts for roughly 40 percent of US freight ton-miles, and any improvement in cross-border rail efficiency reduces costs for shippers of automotive parts, agricultural products, chemicals and energy commodities. Canadian crude-by-rail volumes to the US Gulf Coast, which averaged 95,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, could benefit from improved network fluidity, according to data from the Canada Energy Regulator. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*

**CN secured rail access rights as Union Pacific's merger with Norfolk Southern faces intensifying regulatory scrutiny.** Union Pacific and CN signed a binding agreement July 22 that grants Canada's largest railroad competitive access rights, a preemptive move to address monopoly concerns as Union Pacific's proposed merger with Norfolk Southern advances. "The MOU establishes a framework that preserves competitive options for customers while the merger is reviewed," a spokesperson for CN said in the joint statement. The Surface Transportation Board has already mandated Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern to publicly disclose employee-impact data by July 27, requiring detailed exhibits on projected job eliminations, new roles and employee relocations. The decision supports labor unions seeking transparency in the proceedings. The Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern combination would reshape the North American rail landscape, creating the largest U.S. railroad by revenue. CN's access agreement reduces the risk of regulatory rejection but introduces operational complexity that may affect service reliability and pricing for shippers across the continent. **Regulatory Hurdles Mount** The STB's transparency mandate follows a separate lawsuit filed by Kansas and Colorado farmers accusing Union Pacific of monopolizing grain shipping. The dual pressures — regulatory scrutiny and litigation — show the challenges facing the proposed merger, which requires approval from the STB, the primary regulator for railroad consolidations. The last major U.S. railroad merger — the 1996 Union Pacific-Southern Pacific combination — took 18 months to clear regulatory review and was followed by years of service disruptions that drew congressional hearings. **What's at Stake for Shippers** The MOU between CN and Union Pacific addresses a central concern: that the merger would reduce competition in key corridors. By securing access rights, CN preserves its ability to serve customers in markets where Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern currently compete. The agreement could serve as a template for other railroads seeking competitive protections in future consolidation deals. Rail shippers, including agricultural producers and energy companies, have historically opposed large mergers, citing higher rates and reduced service options. The Association of American Railroads estimates the industry moves about $700 billion worth of freight annually. **Forward Outlook** The companies must submit their merger application with the required employee-impact exhibits by July 27. Analysts expect the STB review process to take 12 to 18 months, with a final decision potentially arriving in late 2027 or early 2028. Investors in all three railroads — UNP, NSC and CNI — face uncertainty as the regulatory timeline unfolds. Union Pacific shares have moved in a tight range this year as the market prices in the merger's uncertain outcome, while Norfolk Southern has traded at a premium reflecting the expected deal value. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.