

The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.55% this week, the highest level in nearly a year, as surging oil prices and renewed inflation concerns pushed borrowing costs higher across the housing market. "The combination of elevated oil prices and sticky inflation expectations is keeping upward pressure on mortgage rates, even as the broader economy shows signs of cooling," said James Okafor, rates analyst at Edgen. "The 10-year Treasury yield has risen roughly 60 basis points since late February, and mortgage rates are following that trajectory." Freddie Mac's weekly survey showed the 30-year fixed rate climbing from 6.49% last week, while the 15-year fixed rate rose to 5.93% from 5.82%. One year ago, the 30-year averaged 6.75%. The current reading is the highest since Aug. 28, when the rate stood at 6.56%, and marks a sharp reversal from late February, when the average briefly dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022. The rise in mortgage rates is tightening a housing market already constrained by elevated home prices and limited supply. Mortgage applications fell 2.7% last week from the prior week, driven by a 7% drop in purchase applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Pending home sales declined 5.4% in June from the prior month, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday, signaling further softening in the summer selling season. **Oil's Spillover Into Housing** The primary driver behind the rate increase is the surge in crude oil prices, which have climbed above $80 a barrel as the U.S. and Iran escalated military strikes after a ceasefire collapsed. Higher oil prices feed directly into inflation expectations, which in turn push up long-term bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a benchmark for pricing home loans, stood at 4.57% Thursday, up from 4.54% a week ago and well above the 3.97% level in late February before the conflict began. Cooler-than-expected June inflation data released Tuesday provided brief relief, with the consumer price index showing prices paid by consumers for gas, clothes and other goods moderated last month. But the reprieve proved short-lived as energy concerns prevailed. "Mortgage rates are caught between cooler inflation data and renewed energy risks," said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow. "Softer June inflation reduced the likelihood of a near-term Federal Reserve rate increase, but higher oil prices are keeping pressure on the inflation outlook and borrowing costs." **What Higher Rates Mean for Homebuyers** For borrowers, the increase translates into hundreds of dollars more in monthly payments. On a $400,000 loan, the difference between a 6% rate and a 6.55% rate adds roughly $140 per month, or more than $50,000 in additional interest over the life of a 30-year mortgage. Refinance activity bucked the broader trend, rising 4% last week from the prior week and 7% from a year ago, driven largely by FHA and VA borrowers. But the overall refinance pool remains small, with rates only 17 basis points below year-ago levels offering limited incentive for most homeowners to act. With oil prices likely to remain elevated as long as geopolitical tensions persist, mortgage rates may stay near current levels in the near term. The Fed's next policy meeting in September will be closely watched for any shift in the rate outlook, though central bank officials have signaled they are in no rush to cut. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

**A White House teleprompter operator with advance knowledge of President Donald Trump's speeches allegedly made more than $100,000 betting on what the president would say, in the first known insider trading case involving a federal employee on prediction markets.** The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating Gabriel Perez, a deputy assistant to the president who has operated Trump's teleprompter since 2016, for placing bets on Kalshi's "Mentions" market, where users wager on whether specific words or phrases appear in public speeches, according to two sources familiar with the matter. "Even his teleprompter guy is corrupt," one user wrote on Bluesky after the investigation was reported. Kalshi alerted the CFTC after its surveillance team flagged suspicious trading patterns linked to Perez, who made more than $90,000 in profits from the trades, according to one source. The profits have been frozen. Kalshi's head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, said in a statement that the company "promptly flagged and referred these trades to the CFTC, and we are cooperating and assisting regulators." The investigation covers bets placed on more than a dozen Trump speeches over a three-month period, including the February State of the Union address, a December primetime address, a January speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, and Trump's March remarks during a Medal of Honor ceremony. In certain instances, investigators found that Perez would back out of bets mid-speech when Trump skipped over portions of prepared remarks, the sources said. Perez, whose official title is deputy assistant to the president and technical advisor, earns a $175,000 annual salary, according to a White House report submitted to Congress. He sat for an interview with CFTC regulators in recent months and acknowledged some of the trades, sources said. The CFTC alerted federal prosecutors in Manhattan, who declined to open a criminal investigation. **White House Response and Broader Crackdown** The White House issued an internal memo on March 24 warning staff against using nonpublic information to place bets on prediction markets, saying "the misuse of nonpublic information by government employees for financial benefit is a very serious offense and will not be tolerated." White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said the staffer "is fully cooperating with the CFTC." CFTC Chair Mike Selig, a Trump appointee, has pledged to crack down on insider trading on prediction markets, including if it came from the White House. The Trump-era CFTC has broadly championed prediction markets as a regulatory category, even as state gambling regulators have challenged their legality. The case marks a significant test for prediction market oversight. The Department of Justice in recent months brought the first two criminal cases of insider trading on prediction markets — against a special forces soldier who allegedly bet on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and a Google employee who allegedly bet on user searches using internal company data. Both pleaded not guilty. Kalshi has since updated its policies to require users to disclose their place of employment. "If you have information by virtue of your job or your employment, something that you have a legal duty surrounding, and you have an obligation not to take that, misappropriate it for yourself," DeNault told ABC News in May. Regulators at the CFTC have expressed a willingness to settle with Perez and have discussed terms requiring him to return his profits and refrain from making similar trades, according to sources familiar with the ongoing discussions. Perez continues to serve in his White House role. Trump has occasionally criticized prediction markets but said in April he supports them because the United States could be "left out in the cold" if it does not allow companies like Kalshi and Polymarket to operate. His social media company, Trump Media and Technology Group, announced last October it was exploring launching its own prediction market offering. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Silver prices tumbled Rs 5,600 per kilogram on the MCX on Wednesday, the biggest drop in three months, as rising oil prices reshaped inflation expectations and delayed bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts. The selloff came as fading hopes for a US-Iran peace deal fueled inflation worries and strengthened expectations of sustained high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, according to Goodreturns data. MCX silver futures posted a significant decline, while gold futures also fell, the data showed. Gold prices fell Rs 1,300 per 10 grams alongside silver, with 24-carat gold in India settling at Rs 1,42,590 per 10 grams and 22-carat gold at Rs 1,32,290, according to Goodreturns. The declines came despite recent soft CPI, PPI and jobs data that had initially fueled expectations of a September rate cut. The precious metals selloff was broad-based, with silver bearing the brunt of the decline. Silver's higher industrial demand exposure makes it more sensitive to rate-hike expectations than gold, as tighter monetary policy typically slows manufacturing activity. COMEX silver futures tracked the MCX move lower, extending losses from the previous session. Gold has already been under pressure in recent weeks. The 22-carat gold price in India fell 9.6% in June alone, sliding from Rs 14,481 per gram at the start of the month to Rs 13,085 by month-end, according to Goodreturns data. The weekly trend for the period ending July 16 showed 22-carat gold flat at Rs 13,059 per gram, reflecting a pause after the June selloff. The divergence between soft inflation data and rising oil prices creates a dilemma for the Fed, as higher energy costs threaten to keep headline inflation elevated even as core measures moderate. The US dollar strengthened on the shifting rate outlook, adding further pressure on dollar-denominated commodities including silver and gold. Silver at current levels remains down from its June highs, with the metal tracking the broader precious metals complex lower. Compared to gold, silver has underperformed year-to-date, reflecting its dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal. The gold-to-silver ratio has widened as a result, signaling silver's relative weakness. Silver and gold face continued selling pressure if crude prices remain elevated, with the Fed chair's upcoming speech seen as the next trigger for direction. Analysts have advised investors to wait for clarity on the rate path before initiating new positions in the volatile precious metals market. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.