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John Paulson says gold rally still early, touts NovaGold's 40 million oz
Edgen Stock·Jul 23 2026, 21:26Share to
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[1] Billionaire John Paulson says gold bull market still in early stages (https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-23 ...)[2] Man Who Called 2008 Crash Says Now Is the Time to “Invest in Early-Stage Gold Stocks” (https://www.aol.com/articles/man-called-2008- ...)[3] Hedge fund titan Paulson says gold in early stages of long-term bull market (https://seekingalpha.com/news/4617044-hedge-f ...)[4] Hedge Fund Billionaire Paulson Says Gold Bull Run Only Just Beginning (https://beincrypto.com/paulson-gold-bull-mark ...)[5] Man Who Called 2008 Crash Says Now Is the Time to “Invest in Early-Stage Gold St... (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities ...)
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Jul 23 2026, 23:00
Russia sells gold reserves to support economy under 21st EU sanctions
Russia continued selling gold from its state reserves in July to finance budget shortfalls as Western sanctions tighten, adding to global bullion supply. "Russia's gold sales are a direct consequence of reduced energy revenues and restricted access to foreign exchange reserves," said Paul Harris, head of commodity strategy at BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit. "The Kremlin is monetizing its largest liquid asset." The Bank of Russia has not disclosed the volume of gold sold in July. The country ranks among the world's largest gold producers, with annual output exceeding 300 tonnes, and typically channels a portion of new production to its central bank reserves. The sales come as the European Union adopted its 21st package of sanctions against Russia on July 23, targeting energy revenue, financial services and crypto assets used to bypass restrictions, according to a statement from the EU Council. Russia's oil and gas revenue has declined as the price cap on Russian crude and EU import bans reduce export income. Additional Russian gold supply could weigh on global bullion prices, which have been supported in recent months by central bank purchases and expectations of lower US interest rates. The next catalyst for gold markets is the Federal Reserve's July 30 rate decision, with markets pricing in a potential quarter-point cut that would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*
Jul 23 2026, 22:57
Gold holds above $4,000 as managers flip to undervalued
**Gold is holding above $4,000 as fund managers turn bullish on the metal for the first time in more than three years, but technical resistance and Fed rate uncertainty threaten the recovery.** COMEX gold held above $4,000 an ounce on July 23, extending a 3.5% rebound from the $3,900-$4,000 support zone that has contained selling since the metal's 26% drawdown from its $5,598 record. A net 6% of institutional managers now call gold undervalued, the first negative overvaluation reading in more than three years, according to Bank of America's July Global Fund Manager Survey of 181 managers overseeing $484 billion in assets. The sentiment shift follows a repricing that pushed gold into bear market territory earlier this month. The last time the survey flipped this way, in March 2023, gold traded below $2,000 before rallying to $5,598 by January 2026. Average cash levels dropped to 3.6% of assets from 4.1%, triggering the contrarian sell signal under BofA's Cash Rule for risk assets — but not for gold, which sits at the opposite extreme of positioning. The $4,000 level coincides with the long-term 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $3,943, where buyers have stepped in twice this month. The next test is the descending trendline from the all-time high, now converging near current levels. A rejection would expose the 0.618 golden pocket at $3,552, about 14% below. Next week's Federal Reserve decision and a proposed 10-day US-Iran truce are the nearest catalysts. ## Fund Manager Survey Flips for First Time Since 2023 The July edition of the BofA survey polled 181 managers overseeing $484 billion in assets. Through 2025 and early 2026, the same survey showed extreme readings, with a net 40% or more of managers calling gold overvalued near the January peak. The valuation call stands out because managers are anything but cautious elsewhere — a record 82% named long semiconductor stocks the most crowded trade, while 45% called an AI bubble the biggest tail risk. ## Technical Levels Define the Next Move The daily relative strength index has recovered to 52, back in neutral territory after weeks of suppressed readings. The first barrier is the descending trendline drawn from the $5,598 all-time high. Beyond it, the $4,300-$4,400 resistance zone coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $4,334, roughly 4% to 6% above the current price. On the downside, a break below $3,950 would expose the $3,850 area. Silver, which often leads gold in directional moves, is testing support at $55 an ounce. A break below that level would open the door to the $45-$55 accumulation zone, where long-term buyers have historically stepped in. The gold-silver ratio stands at roughly 75, above its historical average of 60, suggesting silver may offer more upside if gold continues to recover. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 23 2026, 22:55
Bond regime change reshapes gold investing as 1,000-tonne buying persists
**A structural shift in bond markets is rewriting the investment case for gold, and central banks are already acting on it.** The bond market regime change reshaping global fixed-income markets is creating a new tailwind for gold, with the precious metal's investment thesis shifting as real yields and rate expectations undergo a structural repricing. The shift comes as central banks have purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually in both 2023 and 2024, according to the World Gold Council, shattering decades-old records. "Gold's role as a portfolio diversifier becomes more compelling when the bond market enters a new regime," said Shanon Davis, CEO of American Alternative Assets. "Central banks are already voting with their balance sheets." Central bank gold reserves now total an estimated 36,000 tonnes globally, a figure that has grown steadily since 2020. The buying pace continued into the first quarter of 2026, the World Gold Council data show. During the 2008 financial crisis, gold prices rose while major stock indices fell sharply, and during the market volatility of 2020, gold again reached record highs while traditional asset classes experienced significant swings. The last time central banks accumulated gold at this pace was in the years following the 2008 crisis, when reserves increased by roughly 500 tonnes annually — roughly half the current rate. If the bond market regime shift persists — characterized by changes in yield curve dynamics, inflation expectations, and real rate trajectories — gold could see sustained institutional demand as portfolio managers reassess the traditional stock-bond allocation. The buying accelerated as government debt levels rose and inflation concerns persisted, suggesting a collective judgment among central banks that the macroeconomic environment has entered a new phase. **Central Banks Lead the Charge** The most telling indicator comes from the institutions that manage the world's currencies. Central banks — among the most cautious and best-informed money managers — have been increasing their gold holdings at a pace not seen in modern history. After decades of relatively modest accumulation, the shift to sustained buying has been significant. This acceleration comes as government debt levels rise, inflation concerns persist, and global trade dynamics shift. Central banks do not typically make dramatic changes to their reserve strategies without reason. The buying spree suggests a collective judgment that gold's role as a store of value and portfolio diversifier has become more important in the current environment. The transmission mechanism is straightforward: a bond market regime change alters the relationship between nominal yields and inflation expectations, directly impacting real yields — the primary driver of gold prices. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, while a weaker dollar environment amplifies the effect. For retirement savers, the lesson from central bank behavior is that assets which move differently from stocks and bonds can help steady a portfolio during periods of economic stress. **What the Regime Change Means for Investors** For retirement savers and institutional investors alike, the implications extend beyond gold itself. A bond market regime change that supports gold prices also indicates broader shifts in the macroeconomic environment — potentially lower growth expectations, changing inflation dynamics, or altered monetary policy trajectories. Gold has historically maintained purchasing power across long time horizons. Unlike paper currencies, it cannot be printed or created in unlimited quantities. As central bank reserves grow, individual investors may benefit from understanding why the world's most sophisticated money managers are diversifying into physical assets. A Precious Metals IRA allows eligible individuals to hold IRS-approved gold, silver, platinum and palladium within a tax-advantaged retirement account, though gold is generally considered one component of a diversified strategy rather than a replacement for stocks or bonds. Looking ahead, the trajectory of gold prices will depend on whether the bond market regime change proves durable. If real yields remain suppressed and central bank buying continues at the current pace, the structural case for gold allocation strengthens. If the regime reverses and yields normalize, gold could face headwinds — but the scale of central bank accumulation suggests the world's most cautious investors are betting on the former scenario. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.