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Gold pulls back as 30-year Treasury yields test 2007 levels
Edgen Stock·Jul 31 2026, 21:25Share to
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[1] Gold (XAUUSD), Silver, Platinum Forecasts – Gold Pulls Back As Treasury Yields Test New Highs (https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/go ...)[2] MIT’s Self-Adapting AI Learns New Facts Like a Student and Upgrades Itself (https://www.msn.com/en-gb/technology/artifici ...)[3] Market Brief (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/?id=a6qja2&oc ...)[4] Budget 2026 (https://www.business-standard.com/budget ...)[5] Sinkhole in Maitland showing no growth, Orange County to fill the hole (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/large-overn ...)
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Jul 31 2026, 23:02
NatWest lifts ROTE guidance above 19% on 12.4% Q2 profit jump
NatWest Group reported Q2 operating profit of £2.3 billion, up 12.4 percent, and raised its 2026 return-on-tangible-equity guidance to above 19 percent. "Our performance makes clear we have the capability and capacity to grow at scale," Chief Financial Officer Katie Murray said, citing growth across the group's three businesses, improving efficiency and low credit losses. Q2 income excluding notable items rose 5.4 percent to £4.4 billion, while non-interest income increased 15 percent. The cost-income ratio improved one percentage point to 45.5 percent. Customer assets and liabilities climbed £86.8 billion to £986.9 billion, including £73.9 billion from the Evelyn Partners acquisition. The guidance raise shows management expects profitability to hold above 19 percent ROTE through 2026. NatWest expects to announce its next share buyback alongside full-year results in February. For the first half, income growth of 8.9 percent exceeded cost growth of 4.5 percent, reducing the cost-income ratio by 2.8 percentage points to 46 percent. Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders was £1.6 billion in Q2, with earnings per share of 54 cents on revenue net of interest expense of $6.04 billion, which beat Street forecasts. Customer lending grew £9.7 billion in the quarter, including £3.9 billion of mortgage growth, lifting NatWest's mortgage stock share to 12.7 percent. Commercial and Institutional lending rose £5.7 billion, with the strongest growth among larger corporates. Customer deposits increased £2.8 billion, led by a £2.5 billion gain in Commercial and Institutional deposits. The bank recorded a £140 million impairment charge, equivalent to 13 basis points of loans, with no new signs of stress across its businesses. NatWest ended the first half with a CET1 ratio of 13.2 percent after the Evelyn Partners acquisition and after accruing 50 percent of attributable profit for ordinary dividends. The group generated 197 basis points of CET1 capital during the first half. Management raised full-year income guidance to approximately £17.9 billion and expects other operating expenses of about £8.5 billion. Capital generation before distributions and the impact of Evelyn Partners is expected to exceed 240 basis points. The bank's total MREL ratio stood at 30.6 percent, with a leverage ratio of 4.7 percent and average liquidity coverage ratio of 140 percent. The raised guidance positions NatWest for sustained profitability above 19 percent ROTE, a level that would place it among the top-performing UK lenders. Peers including Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays will report their own results in the coming weeks, providing a sector benchmark. Investors will watch the full-year results in February for the next share buyback announcement and updated capital return plans. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 31 2026, 22:59
Ferguson Enterprises joins S&P 500 as shares rally 9% on news
Ferguson Enterprises will join the S&P 500 on Aug. 5, replacing Electronic Arts, after shares of the $45 billion distributor rallied 9% on the announcement. S&P Dow Jones Indices said late Friday that the Newport News, Virginia-based wholesale distributor of plumbing and heating products will enter the benchmark index before the market open Wednesday. The change follows an investor consortium comprising Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners acquiring Electronic Arts in a deal expected to close soon. Ferguson, which reported $31.3 billion in annual sales last year and $7.5 billion in first-quarter revenue, edged out social-media company Reddit and fuel-cell maker Bloom Energy for the index slot. Analysts polled by FactSet expect the company to report $8.7 billion in second-quarter sales next month. The company joins the index in the Industrials sector, while Electronic Arts exits from Communication Services. A spot in the S&P 500 brings shares to a broader investor base, including passive funds that track the index and actively managed funds with index-based mandates. Index-tracking funds will be required to buy Ferguson shares ahead of the Aug. 5 effective date, a dynamic that typically supports the stock price in the days before inclusion. The change follows a June rebalance that added chip maker Marvell Technology and electronics manufacturer Flex to the index. In a related move, ADI Global Distribution will join the S&P SmallCap 600 on Aug. 4, replacing Hertz Global Holdings, after parent Resideo Technologies completes the spin-off of the distribution business. Hertz is being removed because it is no longer representative of the small-cap market space. Ferguson's inclusion caps a period of steady growth for the company, which has expanded through acquisitions into one of the largest distributors of plumbing, heating and ventilation products in North America. The company competes with industrial distributors including W.W. Grainger and Fastenal across overlapping product categories. The Electronic Arts deal, expected to close pending final conditions, ranks among the largest take-private transactions in the gaming industry. The involvement of Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund extends the kingdom's push into gaming assets, following earlier investments in the sector. For Ferguson, the index inclusion provides a liquidity boost that could attract new institutional investors. The company's shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange, and the S&P 500 addition is expected to increase trading volumes as index funds adjust their portfolios ahead of the effective date. The addition also shifts the S&P 500's sector composition, with Ferguson entering under Industrials while Electronic Arts departs from Communication Services. The change reflects the broader rotation in index constituents as take-private activity removes companies from public markets and new entrants take their place. For investors, the index change creates a clear trading dynamic: funds tracking the S&P 500 must purchase Ferguson shares by the Aug. 5 effective date, while selling their Electronic Arts positions. This forced buying typically provides a short-term tailwind for the incoming stock, though the effect often fades after the inclusion date passes. The pattern mirrors what happened when Marvell Technology and Flex joined the index in June, with both stocks seeing elevated trading volumes in the days surrounding their additions. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 31 2026, 22:55
Exxon, Chevron profits quadruple to $26.6B on Iran war supply shock
Combined net earnings at ExxonMobil and Chevron jumped 316 percent from the first quarter to $26.6 billion as the Iran conflict halted most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that previously carried a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas. Brent crude rose from about $70 to above $100 a barrel for much of March, April and May, peaking at $126. "The Iran war means bumper petroleum and refining margins," said Robert Cyran, U.S. tech columnist at Reuters Breakingviews. ExxonMobil reported net earnings of $14.53 billion, up 247 percent from the first quarter and 106 percent from a year earlier, while Chevron posted $12.07 billion, up 446 percent quarter-over-quarter. Combined revenue rose 38 percent to $183.2 billion. Chevron's adjusted EPS of $6.11 beat the FactSet consensus of $5.55, while Exxon's $3.52 missed the $3.56 estimate. The windfall arrives as Washington scrutinizes gasoline prices. The Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission warned oil companies on July 3 that they were monitoring petroleum markets, and President Trump said Exxon and Chevron were part of a probe into high gas prices. ## Refining Margins Set Records as Gasoline Demand Slips Chevron said production in the U.S., which wasn't constrained by the war, reached record levels, while ExxonMobil said Permian Basin output was also at an all-time high. Chevron produced about 4.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the quarter, up from 3.9 million in the first quarter, while Exxon produced 4.5 million BOE/d, slightly below Q1. Both companies noted that supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict impacted overall production. Chevron added that the war led to a drop in crude inputs to refineries and lower refined product sales, as demand for gasoline and diesel declined while prices rose. Crude prices actually fell during the quarter even as the war raged. WTI futures dropped 31.5 percent and Brent sank 29.8 percent, with both ending the quarter slightly above where they were just before the Iran war started on Feb. 28. The price retreat reflects the market's initial overreaction to the Hormuz closure, followed by a partial normalization as alternative supply routes emerged. The profit surge extends beyond the two U.S. majors. Shell more than doubled its Q2 2025 profits to about $9.8 billion, its second-most-profitable quarter ever, while TotalEnergies posted its best quarter in three years. Europe's six largest oil companies reported combined profits of more than $22 billion in Q2, according to the Associated Press. ## Washington Turns Up Heat on Big Oil The Center for American Progress estimates the war has cost the U.S. about $150 billion since it began, including roughly $68 billion in higher gasoline and diesel costs for American drivers. Higher fuel prices pushed inflation to its highest level in three years, erasing nearly all of workers' wage gains over the past 12 months, the group said. The conflict has also killed 18 U.S. servicemembers, with each household bearing an estimated $1,100 in costs so far. Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse and Congressman Ro Khanna have introduced legislation to curb profiteering by oil companies and provide Americans relief at the gas pump. "American consumers are once again getting squeezed at the gas pump as President Trump's war of choice in Iran sends gas prices soaring and money flowing to his Big Oil donors," Whitehouse said in a statement. The legislation faces long odds in a Republican-controlled Congress, but the political pressure is mounting. The last time oil companies posted windfall profits on a major conflict — Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — the EU and UK imposed windfall taxes that clawed back billions from the sector. ExxonMobil's stock fell 19.4 percent during the second quarter but is up 30.4 percent in 2026 through Thursday. Chevron shares shed 19.9 percent in Q2 but gained 26.2 percent this year. With the conflict in its sixth month and no resolution in sight, the question is whether these profit levels are sustainable. If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, supply constraints will keep prices elevated and margins wide. If a ceasefire emerges, crude prices could fall sharply, compressing the windfall as quickly as it appeared. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.