Globe Life misses Q2 estimates by $0.18 as revenue falls short

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Jul 23 2026, 20:15

Fed decision, Big Tech earnings put S&P 500 at risk of 2% swing

**Next week could be one of the most consequential weeks on Wall Street this year.** The S&P 500 faces a potential 2% swing next week as the Federal Reserve's July rate decision converges with earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. "The members of our Committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation," Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in his July 15 testimony on monetary policy. "And we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability." The FOMC meets July 28-29, with markets pricing roughly a 1-in-3 chance of a rate increase, according to fed funds futures. The decision follows a June CPI reading that showed headline inflation at 3.5%, down from a three-year high of 4.2% in May but still well above the Fed's 2% target. The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting tool projects July headline inflation easing further to 3.32%, though core PCE — the Fed's preferred gauge — remains stubbornly elevated. The convergence of a Fed decision with four of the five largest US companies by market cap reporting earnings creates a binary risk for index-level positioning. A hawkish hold or a rate hike paired with a Big Tech earnings miss could trigger a systemic volatility spike, while a dovish outcome and strong results could fuel the next leg of the AI-driven rally. The Nasdaq 100 is particularly exposed to the dual catalysts. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet collectively account for roughly 25% of the index's weighting, meaning any single earnings miss or beat can move the benchmark by more than 1%. Options markets are pricing implied moves of 4% to 6% for each of the four megacaps, according to data from Trade Alert. The Fed's decision adds a macro layer that complicates the earnings read. If the FOMC delivers a hawkish surprise — either a rate hike or language signaling a September move — growth stocks would face a double headwind of higher discount rates and elevated uncertainty about consumer demand. Fed Governor Lisa Cook on July 15 flagged inflation risks, saying the central bank's target price index "rose 3.7 percent in the 12 months through June," still 1.7 percentage points above the 2% goal. A hold with dovish language could amplify any positive earnings surprises. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on July 16 said that "if actual inflation does not start to cool down soon," a policy rethink could be warranted — language that markets interpreted as a willingness to wait for more data before acting. The VIX, which has traded in the 15-18 range for most of July, is likely to break higher as the week approaches. The Cboe Volatility Index typically rises into FOMC decision days and earnings season peaks, and the combination of both in a single week is rare. The last time a Fed meeting coincided with a comparable concentration of megacap reports was July 2023, when the S&P 500 moved an average of 1.4% on each of the four earnings days. Treasury yields are also in focus. The 10-year US Treasury yield has oscillated between 4.10% and 4.35% in July, reflecting uncertainty about the rate path. A break above 4.35% on hawkish Fed language would pressure equity valuations, while a decline below 4.10% would provide a tailwind for growth and tech stocks. The US Dollar Index has held near 104.5, with any breakout likely to correlate with the Fed's tone on inflation. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Jul 23 2026, 20:11

30-year mortgage rate hits 2026 high as Treasury warning flashes

**The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to its highest level of 2026 this week, driven by a selloff in longer-dated Treasuries that threatens to push borrowing costs toward 7% and deepen the housing market slowdown.** The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.87%, the highest since December 2025, according to Freddie Mac data. The increase follows a 14-basis-point jump in the 10-year Treasury yield over the past two weeks, as investors repriced the outlook for inflation and Federal Reserve policy after the US-Israel conflict with Iran pushed energy costs higher. "The bond market is sending a clear signal that the path for rates is higher for longer, and the housing market is the most exposed sector," said Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. "Every 50-basis-point increase in mortgage rates prices roughly 2 million households out of the purchase market." The move comes as the housing market already faces headwinds from elevated prices and limited inventory. Pending home sales fell 5.5% in December, the National Association of Realtors reported, marking the third consecutive monthly decline and the weakest reading since November 2023. The median existing-home price stood at $404,500 in June, near record levels. Mortgage rates have now risen more than 100 basis points from their 2026 low of 5.82% in January, when markets had expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates multiple times this year. Instead, the Fed has held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% since September 2025, after cutting three times from a peak of 5.25% to 5.5%. The central bank's next decision is scheduled for July 29. The 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage pricing, has climbed to 4.52% from 4.12% at the start of June, as oil prices surged following renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil averaged $86 a barrel in June, up 18% from May. For homebuyers, the math is becoming increasingly difficult. At a 6.87% rate, the monthly payment on a $400,000 loan is about $2,625, excluding taxes and insurance — roughly $450 more than at the January low of 5.82%. That translates to nearly $162,000 in additional interest over the life of a 30-year loan. The last time mortgage rates approached 7% was in October 2023, when they hit 8.01% — a 23-year high. That peak triggered a sharp pullback in home sales, with existing-home sales falling to a 13-year low of 4.06 million units in 2023. The current trajectory suggests a similar dynamic may be unfolding, though rates remain well below the 8% threshold. Homebuilder sentiment has already begun to sour. The National Association of Home Builders' housing market index fell to 42 in June from 48 in March, slipping below the 50 breakeven threshold that separates positive from negative sentiment for the first time since November 2023. Builders cited higher financing costs and buyer hesitation as primary concerns. The Federal Reserve's ability to provide relief remains constrained. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.6% year over year in June, above the central bank's 2% target. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said in a June 25 speech that the Fed needs "greater confidence" inflation is on a sustained path lower before cutting rates. "If inflation stays sticky and the labor market remains tight, the Fed has little room to cut," said Fratantoni. "That means mortgage rates are likely to stay elevated through the end of the year, and we could see them test 7% if the 10-year yield pushes above 4.75%." The impact extends beyond would-be homebuyers. Existing homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages face higher payments at reset, while those with fixed-rate loans below 4% — roughly 60% of outstanding mortgages, according to Redfin — remain locked into their current homes, further constricting supply. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*

Jul 23 2026, 20:05

Khosla Ventures targets $5.5 billion in record fundraising push

**Khosla Ventures, an early OpenAI backer, is raising $5.5 billion across three new funds — its largest haul in two decades.** Khosla Ventures is in discussions to raise as much as $5.5 billion across three new investment vehicles, a record for the 20-year-old firm that shows venture capital's accelerating bet on artificial intelligence. "The firm is targeting $1 billion for seed-stage companies and $2 billion for early-stage ventures, with an additional $2.5 billion earmarked for more mature startups through an opportunity fund," according to two people familiar with the matter, who asked to remain anonymous because the discussions are private. The fundraising target surpasses the roughly $4 billion Khosla Ventures raised last year. The Menlo Park-based firm was the first outside investor in OpenAI and has since backed AI startups including Cognition, an AI coding company; Sakana AI, which is building a Japanese language model; and Physical Intelligence, which develops models for robotics. The record haul reflects how early bets on transformative AI technology have emboldened venture firms to raise ever-larger pools of capital. Khosla joins a wave of firms pursuing their biggest funds ever: Menlo Ventures raised $3 billion last month, Founders Fund closed on $6 billion, and Sequoia Capital raised about $7 billion for late-stage investments — all partly driven by the capital demands of AI startups. ## Three Funds, Three Stages Khosla's fundraising plan allocates capital across the startup lifecycle. The seed fund, at roughly $1 billion, targets the youngest companies, while the $2 billion venture fund backs early-stage startups. The opportunity fund, at about $2.5 billion, focuses on more mature businesses that require larger checks — a structure that mirrors the industry's shift toward writing bigger rounds for longer-held portfolio companies. The final sizes of each fund could still change as discussions continue, the people said. ## AI Returns Fuel Fundraising Boom Khosla Ventures' early bet on OpenAI — the firm was its first outside investor — has generated returns that now anchor its fundraising pitch. The firm has since seeded a portfolio of high-profile AI bets, positioning it to capitalize on the technology's rapid adoption across industries. Founder Vinod Khosla, who started the firm in 2004, recently led an investor group to buy the Seattle Seahawks for $9.6 billion, a deal that would set a National Football League record. On a recent fundraising call, investors were told Khosla has no intention of running the team and remains focused on his venture investing business, according to people familiar with the matter. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.