Fed decision, Big Tech earnings put S&P 500 at risk of 2% swing

source:

[1] The Week Ahead: Fed Decision Accompanies a Big Tech Earnings Blitz (https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/ne ...)[2] Best high-yield savings accounts for July 2026: Up to 4.50% (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/best- ...)[3] Markets See Chance Fed Hikes Next Week At July Meeting (https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/ ...)[4] Odds of Federal Reserve rate hike surge as oil prices rip higher (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/odds- ...)[5] The Federal Reserve's July Inflation Forecast Is In, and It Contains a... (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/arti ...)

Related News

Jul 23 2026, 21:54

Trump warns Iran not ready as war costs top $37.5 billion

President Donald Trump said Thursday that Iran "wants to do something" but is "not ready yet," the latest signal from a White House that has spent $37.5 billion on a five-month war with no clear exit strategy and mounting domestic opposition. "Iran wants to do something, but they haven't received enough pain yet," Trump told Axios, according to a transcript of the interview published Thursday. The president also said he is "considering a massive attack" on Iran that would be "bigger than ever before." The remarks came as the US-Iran conflict entered its 146th day, with the Pentagon confirming 18 American service members killed and roughly 500 injured since the war began Feb. 28. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told Congress this week that Iran is "at its weakest point militarily in 47 years" while simultaneously requesting an additional $67 billion in emergency defense funding on top of the $37.5 billion already spent. The war has reshaped global energy markets. Brent crude surged past $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time since May after Yemen's Houthi rebels attacked two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and declared a blockade of Saudi ports. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 21 percent of global oil trade, remains effectively shut. US gasoline prices have climbed back to $4 a gallon, according to AAA data, a politically sensitive threshold ahead of November's midterm elections. **Escalation Across the Gulf** Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck US military assets in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain on Thursday, hitting a telecommunications tower in Kuwait in what it described as retaliation for US attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Kuwait confirmed its Abdali border crossing with Iraq also came under attack by "hostile drones." Jordan said its air defenses downed three Iranian missiles and six drones over the previous 24 hours, with one missile landing in an uninhabited area. The attacks followed the 12th consecutive night of US airstrikes on Iran, which have targeted bridges, tunnels and military infrastructure, according to Iranian state media. The IRGC also threatened the Fairford Air Base in England, calling it a "legitimate target" after the US used B1 bombers operating from the base. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned the Security Council on Thursday that the situation is "teetering on the edge of the unimaginable," adding that "one crisis feeds another. One escalation triggers the next." **Domestic Pushback Intensifies** The House of Representatives adopted a resolution to curb Trump's Iran war powers by a vote of 214 to 208 on Thursday, with four Republicans joining all Democrats present. While the concurrent resolution is symbolic and carries no legal force, it marks the fifth time Democrats have brought such a measure to the floor and signals growing unease within the president's own party. A Washington Post-Ipsos poll published this week found 69 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the Iran conflict. Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters this week that "there needs to be an end to this war," a notable break from the administration's position. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking at the ASEAN summit in Manila, said Iran is "going to pay a price" and described the administration's policy as "an eye for an eye." He denied reports that Russia is helping Iran target US bases, telling reporters there is "nothing that anyone's doing to help Iran" target Americans. The last time the US engaged in a sustained Middle Eastern conflict of this scale was the 2003 Iraq War, which cost $2 trillion over two decades and resulted in 4,400 US deaths. The Iran conflict has already consumed $37.5 billion in five months, a burn rate that, if sustained, would approach $90 billion annually — roughly 15 percent of the current Pentagon base budget. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Jul 23 2026, 21:48

S&P 500 faces yield test as 10-year Treasury tops 4.63%

**Rising bond yields are testing the stock market's resilience as the 10-year Treasury climbs to its highest level in two months.** The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% to 7,443.28 on Monday as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.64%, its highest since May 20, reigniting concerns about equity valuations in a higher-rate environment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 307 points, or 0.6%, to 51,839.26, while the Nasdaq Composite edged down less than 0.1% to 25,508.07. "The market is grappling with the reality that rates may stay higher for longer, and that's a direct challenge to the valuation expansion we've seen," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at OnePoint BFG Wealth Partners. Mike Dickson, head of research at Horizon Investments, said the key question is whether earnings growth can keep pace with the rising discount rate that higher yields impose on future cash flows. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose 3.4 basis points to 4.632%, reaching 4.640% intraday. The move higher in yields pressured growth-sensitive sectors, with the Health Care Select Sector SPDR falling 1.2%, the Materials Select Sector SPDR dropping 0.9%, and the Industrials Select Sector SPDR declining 0.8%. The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR was the only S&P 500 sector to gain ground, rising 0.7%. The CBOE Volatility Index edged down 0.6% to 18.65, suggesting the selloff was orderly rather than panic-driven. Trading volume totaled 15.5 billion shares, below the 20-session average of 19.9 billion. The rise in yields comes as traders increase bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year, with swaps markets pricing in 42 basis points of hikes and a full quarter-point increase fully priced in for September. The Fed held rates steady at its June meeting but signaled it expects to raise borrowing costs later this year as inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target. For equity investors, the question is whether corporate earnings can grow fast enough to offset the drag from higher discount rates — a dynamic that will be tested this week as results from Intel, Alphabet and others are due. **Cross-asset pressure builds** The dollar strengthened as yields rose, with the DXY index gaining 0.17% to 101.16, extending its longest winning streak since mid-May. The Japanese yen weakened 0.41% to 163.14 per dollar, breaching the 163 mark for the first time since December 1986, keeping traders on alert for possible intervention from Tokyo. Oil prices added to the macro uncertainty, with Brent crude rising 2% to $91.01 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate gaining 2% to $84.91, both closing at five-week highs as Middle East tensions escalated. The simultaneous rise in yields, a stronger dollar and higher oil prices creates a challenging backdrop for equities, particularly for sectors with elevated valuations that are most sensitive to changes in the discount rate. The Nasdaq Composite remains more than 20% below its late-June record closing high, while the semiconductor index bounced 5.2% on Friday after falling into correction territory. "Investors are looking at earnings to see if they justify the move up we had in the second quarter," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of 50 Park Investments in New York. With the 10-year yield now above 4.6% and the Fed signaling no near-term relief, the burden of proof falls on corporate profits to support current stock prices. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Jul 23 2026, 21:44

Silver falls twice as Strait of Hormuz crisis drives dollar demand

**Silver has failed to rally during either Strait of Hormuz closure this year, as the US dollar absorbed the crisis bid that historically flows into precious metals.** Silver declined during both Strait of Hormuz closures in 2026, as the US dollar absorbed safe-haven flows that historically lift precious metals during geopolitical crises. "The traditional crisis bid into gold and silver has been redirected into the dollar," said James Hyerczyk, a technical analyst and author of two books on market analysis. "The dollar strengthened on each closure, pulling capital away from metals." The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil supply, has closed twice this year amid US-Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian counterattacks. Ship crossings have dropped to about 30 per day from a pre-war average of 130, according to MarineTraffic and Kpler data. Brent crude closed at $89.22 per barrel, up 1.3%, while US crude settled at $83.23, near a two-month high. The national average for regular gasoline hit $4 per gallon. Silver's divergence from its historical safe-haven role signals a potential structural shift in crisis-trading dynamics. If the dollar remains the preferred避险 asset during geopolitical shocks, precious metals could face continued headwinds even as supply disruption risks escalate across energy and commodity markets. **Strait Disruptions Reshape Commodity Flows** The broader commodities complex has felt the strain. Dow Inc. reported a 30% year-over-year local price increase in its Packaging & Specialty Plastics division in the second quarter, driven by higher polyethylene prices across all regions. Roughly 18 large-scale PE plants fully or partially shut down early in the conflict, removing more than 9.1 million metric tons of material from global supply, according to Esteban Sagel, principal and CEO at Chemical and Polymer Market Consultants. Polypropylene lost about 3 million metric tons of production. Ship activity through the strait remains near the low levels observed in early spring, PortWatch data shows. The stop-start recovery from a brief peace in June left stockpiles unmoved and ports congested, said Jim Owen, senior packaging and logistics analyst at Rabobank. **Dollar Dominance Caps Metal Gains** The US dollar's strength during both closures marks a departure from prior Middle East conflicts, when gold and silver typically rallied as investors sought non-sovereign stores of value. Instead, dollar-denominated assets captured the避险 flows, leaving silver to decline even as oil prices surged more than 20% over two weeks. If the conflict drags on for two weeks or more, Brent could reach $100 per barrel, Hyerczyk said. But for silver, the path depends on whether the dollar's crisis premium persists or eventually rotates back into metals as the situation evolves. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.