

**The momentum trade suffered its worst monthly drawdown in four years, erasing more than a quarter of value from stocks retail investors piled into most.** The momentum factor suffered its worst monthly drawdown in four years, with retail-favored stocks plunging more than 25% from their June peak. "The semiconductor and AI hardware stocks that drove momentum strategies are the same names retail investors have held for years," said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research. "When those unwind, retail gets hit hardest." Of the 11 quant factors tracked by Bloomberg, momentum was July's worst performer. The Jefferies basket tracking stocks with the highest retail participation posted its worst month since 2022. Robinhood Markets and Marvell Technology, both retail favorites, were among the hardest hit. The selloff accelerated as hedge funds dumped technology positions at a record pace, driven by mounting doubts about the returns on artificial intelligence investment. The crash pushed retail participation to its lowest level since the pandemic, with weekly net buying of individual stocks falling to levels not seen since Covid-19 lockdowns. But Wall Street is already calling a bottom: the Bank of America momentum basket surged 8.9% in the past three trading days, the biggest three-day gain since November 2024, while the UBS momentum gauge jumped 11% over the same period, its largest such advance since 2022. The selloff was triggered by a confluence of catalysts. Concerns about the profitability of massive AI infrastructure spending prompted hedge funds to cut technology positions at a record rate last month, according to prime brokerage data. Renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's interest rate path compounded the pressure on what had become one of the most crowded trades in the market. The damage was concentrated in the names retail investors had piled into most heavily during the "buy everything AI" frenzy. The Russell 1000 high retail participation basket, compiled by Jefferies, has now lost more than a quarter of its value since peaking in June, a decline that mirrors the 2022 growth stock rout. **Retail Investors Turn Selective as Participation Drops to Pandemic Lows** The withdrawal has been stark. Vanda Research data shows weekly net buying of individual stocks has fallen to its lowest level since the onset of the pandemic. JPMorgan Chase & Co. data tells a similar story: retail inflows totaled $57 billion in the week through Wednesday, below the $68 billion weekly average of the past 12 months. "The slowdown in retail participation aligns closely with the anxiety we're seeing around the momentum unwind," said Arun Jain, equity strategist at JPMorgan. Yet the data also reveals a more nuanced picture. Rather than fleeing equities entirely, retail investors have become highly selective. Microsoft Corp. and Nvidia Corp. continued to attract meaningful net buying, while Apple Inc. and Tesla Inc. bore the brunt of selling pressure. "Retail flows are becoming very dispersed," Vanda's Patel said. "It's not like last year when it was 'buy everything AI.' Now retail is being very careful about stock selection." **Wall Street Calls the Bottom as Rebound Signals Emerge** The speed of the selloff has prompted multiple Wall Street trading desks to recommend buying the dip. UBS Securities' Michael Romano told clients the selloff may have already flushed out most of the speculative froth, potentially setting the stage for a price floor. Bank of America's trading desk urged clients to buy US momentum stocks, arguing that the recent profit-taking has created an attractive entry point. The rebound is already underway. Bank of America's US momentum basket has rallied 8.9% over the past three trading days, the strongest three-day advance since November 2024. UBS's momentum gauge surged 11% in the same window, its largest three-day jump since 2022. "Both momentum and retail have been on a roller coaster," Vanda's Patel said. "But once the selling pressure subsides and the buyer strike ends, the conditions for a meaningful rebound become increasingly favorable." The Cboe Volatility Index reflected the rapid shift in investor anxiety, spiking during the worst of the selloff before settling back as the rebound took hold. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Bank of America raised its quarterly dividend 14% to $0.32 a share, citing strong earnings and confidence in long-term growth. "The increase in our dividend reflects the strength of our earnings, the power of our franchise and our confidence in Bank of America's ability to drive long-term growth and create value for shareholders," Chair and Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said. The dividend, payable Sept. 25 to holders of record Sept. 4, follows a second quarter where the bank earned $1.21 a share, beating the $1.12 consensus estimate by 8%. Earnings rose 34% from a year earlier, driven by net interest income growth and a record trading franchise. The increase brings the annual payout to $1.28 a share, up from $1.12. BAC returned $8 billion to shareholders in the second quarter alone, including $13.2 billion in buybacks and $4 billion in dividends during the first half. The board's $40 billion buyback authorization still has about $17 billion remaining. The dividend hike comes as Moynihan prepares to retire in November after eight years as CEO, with Greg Ward named as his successor. The bank's CET1 ratio stood at 13.8% at June, up from 12.8% at March, providing ample room for continued capital returns. BAC shares trade at about 19.2 times forward earnings, above the long-run average of 14 times, according to UBS. The stock has returned 34% over the past year, compared with the S&P 500's 18% gain. The dividend increase signals management's confidence in earnings momentum as the bank navigates a rising rate environment. Investors will watch the third-quarter earnings report in October for signs of net interest income acceleration after Moynihan guided NII growth of 6% to 8% for the full year. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Freeport McMoRan Inc. (FCX) reported second-quarter earnings on July 24 that benefited from historically elevated copper and gold prices, with the miner also advancing toward full production at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. "Copper and gold prices sat at historically elevated levels, lifting realizations across the board," the company said in its earnings release. The Grasberg operation, one of the world's largest copper-gold deposits, continues to ramp toward its full production capacity. LME copper traded at $9,850 per tonne as of the London afternoon fix, up 18% year-to-date and within 3% of the all-time high of $10,174 set in March 2024. COMEX gold held above $2,400 per ounce, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical demand. The elevated price environment has widened margins across the copper mining sector, with peer producers including Southern Copper Corp. and Grupo Mexico also reporting stronger realizations. Freeport's Grasberg underground expansion is the single largest driver of future copper supply growth among Western producers. The mine, which transitioned from open-pit to block-cave mining, is expected to deliver 1.6 billion pounds of copper annually at full capacity. Each $100 per tonne move in copper prices translates to roughly $160 million in annual EBITDA for Freeport, according to company disclosures. The broader copper market faces a structural deficit, with the International Copper Study Group projecting a supply shortfall of 500,000 tonnes in 2026 as demand from electrification and data center construction outpaces new mine supply. Freeport's production ramp positions it to capture a disproportionate share of that deficit-driven pricing environment. The next catalyst for copper demand is the August Chinese manufacturing PMI release, with the country accounting for more than half of global refined copper consumption. A reading above 50 would signal expansion in the world's largest metals consumer, potentially supporting prices near current levels. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.