

**Treasury's decision to at least double 10- to 30-year buybacks gives duration buyers their first clear green light in months — and the November midterms may add a second leg.** The US Treasury's decision to at least double its quarterly purchases of 10- to 30-year Treasuries to $4 billion per operation marks a policy pivot that strategists say could compress long-end yields and strengthen the case for extending duration in municipal bond portfolios. "The buyback expansion represents a meaningful reduction in net long-end supply and a strong signal of concern around market liquidity," said Erik Nelson, a strategist at Wells Fargo. "But it is unlikely to drive a sustained decline in long-end yields without another driver." The Treasury plans to conduct buybacks of 10- to 30-year securities worth at least $4 billion per operation during the coming quarter, up from up to $2 billion previously. The first larger operations for 10- and 20-year bonds begin September 10. The 10-year yield traded around 4.69 percent to 4.71 percent Monday, while the 30-year edged back to roughly 5.19 percent to 5.25 percent. The program comes as the US government's outstanding debt surpassed $40 trillion and the CBO projects a $1.9 trillion federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026, with net interest costs exceeding $1 trillion. For muni investors, the buyback signal could drive inflows into long-duration funds, with the November midterms potentially adding further tailwinds. Wall Street strategists remain divided on whether the buybacks will meaningfully reset rate levels. Goldman Sachs strategists including George Cole and William Marshall wrote in an Aug. 21 research note that "the buybacks themselves are unlikely to meaningfully reset rate levels even if scaled up." They cited cyclical resilience, Fed policy reassessment, fiscal pressures, energy risks, and AI capital expenditures as the main drivers of the long-end selloff. Citi strategists led by Jason Williams see gains for 20-year Treasuries after the buyback announcement, arguing the long end "now has better asymmetric risk-reward with the new Treasury 'put' combined with attractive valuations, potential pension fund demand, and upcoming softer data." The 20-year "may benefit the most from future actions as Treasury is likely to reduce the size of its auctions, given how poor it trades relative to 10s and 30s." Deutsche Bank strategists led by Matthew Raskin said the announcement "highlights Treasury's more activist approach with a willingness to deploy tools more creatively and using communication tactically to keep long-end yields contained," though they still expect a steeper curve with long-end yields rising higher. Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa and Shakeeb Hulikatti wrote that the buyback announcement is "unlikely to alter broader forces pushing yields higher," while Scotiabank's Boris Sender and Rachel Zheng said "despite Treasury Secretary Bessent's characterization, the move higher in long yields is justified by fundamentals." ### TGA Funding and the Cash Question The Treasury has yet to disclose precisely how it intends to fund the larger buybacks. One potential source is the Treasury General Account, the federal government's cash account at the Federal Reserve, which held roughly $940 billion as of last Wednesday. Using existing cash would allow the Treasury to conduct the purchases without issuing additional short-term debt, though it would reduce the government's available reserves. The TGA balance has been built up in part to accommodate about $166 billion in refunds owed to importers following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated a significant portion of President Donald Trump's tariffs. If the Treasury opts to replenish cash used for buybacks through borrowing, the additional issuance would likely need to be concentrated in shorter maturities — preserving the objective of improving liquidity in the longer-dated market rather than increasing supply in the very sector the department is seeking to support. For municipal bond investors, the buyback expansion arrives at a moment when long-duration muni funds have been under pressure from elevated yields. The policy shift — combined with the potential for the November midterms to shift fiscal priorities — could provide the specific event needed to extend duration. The next key milestone is the Quarterly Refunding on November 4, when the Treasury may update how it balances buybacks, new debt issuance, and maintaining its cash balance. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

**US-Canada trade negotiations remain frozen as C$28 billion in Canadian counter-tariffs approach a Sept. 8 deadline, threatening a cross-border supply chain that moves billions in autos, steel and agricultural goods.** US-Canada trade negotiations remain stalled as Prime Minister Mark Carney holds a tougher line against President Donald Trump, with C$28 billion in Canadian retaliatory tariffs set to take effect Sept. 8. "We should not react in the moment," said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, urging Canada to hold out for a deal that makes domestic manufacturing sustainable rather than rushing back to the table. Canada's counter-tariffs, matching Washington's duties dollar-for-dollar, cover roughly $28 billion in annual U.S. imports and come with $7.5 billion in federal support for workers and businesses. Trump has threatened to double auto tariffs to 50 percent on New Year's Day, extending duties to auto parts and steel, while Bloomberg News reported the administration is weighing additional penalties. The stakes are steep: University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimates 87,000 Canadian jobs are at risk — 52,000 directly and 35,000 through supply chains — with Ontario, Quebec and B.C. hardest hit. Kansas City, home to Ford and General Motors plants employing 10,000 workers, exports about $4 billion in goods to Canada annually, according to a Canadian Chamber of Commerce study. ## Auto sector bears the brunt The automotive industry sits at the center of the dispute. Michigan, Canada's largest trading partner, imports roughly $70 billion in goods from the country annually, about 40 percent of its total. Trump's threatened 50 percent auto tariffs on New Year's Day would hit a sector already reeling from the collapse of consumer EV tax credits, which forced General Motors to temporarily lay off about 900 workers at its Kansas City plant. ## Economic fallout spreads The pain extends beyond autos. Quebec paperboard manufacturer RYAM said it will close its Temiscaming complex in September, putting more than 400 people out of work, blaming 50 percent tariffs on the Canadian forest industry. Manitoba has offered $100 million in tariff relief, while Saskatchewan imposed a 50 percent reciprocal tax on U.S. alcohol. Canadian ice cream maker Chapman's said it will convert 70 percent of its American ingredients by mid-2027 and hold prices until March 2028. Canada's economy entered the escalation on firmer footing, growing at an annualized 3.3 percent in the second quarter — the fastest pace in more than three years — before the latest tariffs were imposed. But business investment remains below pre-pandemic levels, and the Canadian Labour Congress warns the intensifying trade war will test that growth. The impasse coincides with White House departures as the administration heads toward midterm elections. Bloomberg News White House Correspondent Jeff Mason reported press secretary Karoline Leavitt has left the administration, adding to uncertainty over policy direction. California Gov. Gavin Newsom predicted Trump would reverse course on the tariffs "within days, if not weeks," citing mounting political pressure from Republican members of Congress. Former Canadian ambassador Derek Burney, who helped create the original NAFTA in 1989, said the relationship has deteriorated to an unprecedented low. "We didn't indulge in bombast and insults in the public media," he said. "Now the Americans are going wild with all kinds of nonsense." If the Sept. 8 deadline passes without a deal, policy experts say the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement could effectively be dead. "If those counter tariffs actually go into effect on Sept. 8, you can consider CUSMA dead," said Hannah Thibedeau of Global Public Affairs. The two-week window before Canada's tariffs take effect offers an off-ramp, but former Conservative deputy leader Lisa Raitt said she has "not much hope" negotiations resume soon without an external factor. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Radiant Industries secured a binding agreement worth up to $750 million to deploy 15 of its 1-MWe Kaleidos portable microreactors across U.S. Army installations, the largest award under the Pentagon's $2.2 billion Janus Program. The California-based startup was one of five companies selected to build, own, and operate commercial microreactors at domestic bases, with at least one unit targeted for operation by Sept. 30, 2028. "The U.S. Army is a savvy customer. They have the world's top nuclear experts and know what to look for in a partner," Tori Shivanandan, president and chief operating officer at Radiant, said. Radiant's first three-unit deployment is slated for Fort Benning, Georgia, with additional units going to other military installations. Each Kaleidos unit is factory-built and arrives as a sealed, fueled package transportable by land, sea, or air. The reactor requires no cooling water, operates up to five years between refuelings, and carries a 20-year design life. Radiant will handle fueling, refueling, and spent-fuel storage at its own 300,000-square-foot R-50 campus in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, allowing installations to return to greenfield condition within two years of reactor removal. The contract is one of the largest ever issued by the Defense Innovation Unit and follows Radiant's exclusive one-year access to the Idaho National Laboratory's DOME test facility, where the Kaleidos design is being prepared for full-power testing. The company also holds a parallel award under the Air Force's Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations initiative to deploy a unit at Buckley Space Force Base in Colorado. ## Janus Program Puts Five Vendors on the Grid The Army's Janus Program, initiated by executive order in 2025, will distribute up to $2.2 billion through fiscal year 2031 across five vendors using a milestone-based payment model — companies receive government funding only after hitting specific technical goals. The other selectees include BWXT Advanced Technologies at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, with its 20-MWe BANR reactor; General Atomics Electromagnetic Systems at Fort Hood, Texas, with the roughly 5-MWe GA-TES; Antares Nuclear at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, with its R1 heat-pipe reactor; and Westinghouse Government Services at Fort Drum, New York, with the eVinci microreactor. The competitive field spans a wide range of technical approaches. BWXT is the only vendor that self-supplies its TRISO fuel from its NRC-licensed Lynchburg, Virginia, facility, and it has authorized more than $25 million to double output there. General Atomics' GA-TES uses uranium-zirconium hydride fuel drawn from its TRIGA research reactor heritage, the only Janus design not using TRISO particle fuel. Antares, which achieved criticality with its Mark-0 test reactor at INL in June, has a combined federal contract book approaching $1 billion across the Army, Air Force, and Space Force programs. Radiant's fuel pathway separates enriched uranium supply from reactor-ready fuel fabrication. DOE-allocated HALEU (uranium enriched to 19.75 percent, versus 3 to 5 percent for conventional reactors) will support Kaleidos deployments, and Standard Nuclear will fabricate that material into TRISO particle fuel under a binding multi-metric-ton agreement extending through 2031. ## Military Anchor Deployments Could Unlock Commercial Scale The Army projects more than 20 total nuclear microreactors across Pentagon installations when private capital is included, with the government expecting the majority of funding to come from the private sector. For Radiant, the Janus award feeds directly into the same product it is building for commercial customers, including a signed agreement with Equinix for 20 Kaleidos units to power data centers. "Operating on military installations first gives us the reliability track record to unlock commercial deployments, and the resulting, much larger commercial volume drives down costs, letting the government buy at scale for less," Mike Starrett, chief commercial officer at Radiant, said. The Army does not expect all five vendors to deliver reactors by 2028. "We have a very practical pathway to delivering at least one of these reactors on or by September 30, 2028," Dr. Jeff Waksman, principal deputy assistant secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment, said. "If a company is not performing, we can pull future milestones." The broader advanced nuclear sector is drawing parallel interest from big tech. Data center operators facing multi-year grid interconnection queues are evaluating microreactors as a behind-the-meter power source, and Radiant's Equinix agreement points to commercial demand beyond defense. BWXT is also pursuing a Wyoming commercial TRISO facility and has a letter of intent from Tata Chemicals Soda Ash for up to eight BANR units. For investors, the Janus awards give advanced nuclear startups a government-backed revenue path that reduces technology risk, potentially accelerating the sector's move from pilot projects to commercial order books. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.