EMCOR Group posts record $5.15B quarterly revenue, up 19.8%

source:

[1] EMCOR Group, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/202607 ...)[2] McGrath outlines 2026 revenue of $955M-$985M while raising gross rental CapEx to $200M-$220M (https://seekingalpha.com/news/4621137-mcgrath ...)[3] ExlService projects 2026 revenue of $2.39B-$2.415B following iMerit deal and raised EPS outlook (https://seekingalpha.com/news/4620685-exlserv ...)[4] Qualcomm to raise prices during memory crunch as chipmaker issues light earnings guidance (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/qua ...)[5] AGCO REPORTS SECOND-QUARTER RESULTS (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/agco-reports-s ...)

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Jul 30 2026, 12:53

Momentum stocks crash 17.4% in historic rout as BTIG warns of trap

**The fastest momentum crash in modern history may set up a tech rebound that ultimately traps buyers, according to BTIG.** The S&P 500 fell 1.5% to 7,316.15 on Wednesday as the fastest momentum crash in modern history erased 17.4% from high-flying tech stocks in four days. "Some reprieve is in order, but we don't know if that rally will hold," said Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, in a note to clients. The PHLX Semiconductor Index slid 5.3%, its worst session since early July, while the Nasdaq Composite logged its sixth straight loss — the longest such run since April 2024 — falling 1.7% to 24,442.94. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2.2%, or 1,153 points, to 51,594.14. Krinsky's MS Sector-Neutral Momentum Index posted a 17.4% decline over four sessions, surpassing drawdowns seen after the dot-com bust, in 2022 and following the Covid-19 pandemic. The Goldman Sachs High Beta Momentum Pair, which tracks a strategy of buying winners and shorting losers, now sits 23% below its 200-day moving average after trading 40% above that level in mid-June. The selloff coincided with the 30-year Treasury yield touching 5.246%, its highest since 2007, as investors questioned whether Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will act aggressively enough on inflation. Rising yields pressure tech stocks by discounting future cash flows and raising borrowing costs at a time when Big Tech's AI spending is already under scrutiny. The catalyst for Wednesday's decline was twofold: the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged at its July meeting, and the 30-year bond yield broke to multiyear highs, triggering a rotation out of the most crowded trades. Brent crude jumped 7.3% to above $88 a barrel, adding to inflation concerns that have kept long-term yields elevated. All 11 GICS sectors finished lower. Technology and communication services led the decline as investors fled momentum names that had powered the market's first-half gains. The S&P 500 equal-weight index, which had been hitting all-time highs even as the Nasdaq pulled back, also fell 1.6%, suggesting the selling was broad-based. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies dropped 1.6% to 2,906.31. Krinsky warned that a bounce in momentum stocks could come quickly but may prove fleeting. He drew a parallel to 2000, when the SOX index sank 35% in a month after the dot-com peak, then surged 37% before resuming its decline. A 20% rally from current levels would bring the SOX back to its 50-day moving average, where Krinsky expects it to fail again before eventually testing the 200-day moving average. "If we are wrong about this potential bounce, we could see a correlation-one selloff like August 2024," Krinsky said, suggesting that the equal-weight trade — which has benefited from the rotation out of megacap tech — could also get caught in the downdraft. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, rose 2.4 points to 24.6, its highest level in three months, as options traders priced in elevated volatility through the remainder of earnings season. Apple and Amazon are scheduled to report after the close Thursday, with Coinbase also on deck. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*

Jul 30 2026, 12:52

Russell 2000 profitability crisis deepens as 41.5% of companies lose money

**Nearly half of all small-cap and midcap US stocks are unprofitable, a record that exposes the widening gulf between Wall Street's winners and the rest of the market.** The Russell 2000 index, the benchmark for US small-cap equities, saw 41.5 percent of its constituent companies report negative net income over the trailing 12 months, according to a MarketWatch analysis of the latest financial data. That means roughly two of every five companies in the index are burning cash rather than generating profits, a level of distress that underscores the winner-take-all dynamics reshaping American equity markets. "The small-cap space has become a market of haves and have-nots, and the have-nots are multiplying," said Priya Mehta, equity market structure analyst at Edgen. "When more than 40 percent of an index is losing money, it's no longer a cyclical issue — it's a structural one. The Russell 2000 is increasingly a collection of speculative bets rather than a broad representation of US business." The profitability crisis stands in stark contrast to the headline performance of the broader market. The S&P 500 sits just 2 percent below its all-time high, while the Russell 2000 itself has gained 20 percent this year. But beneath the surface, the divergence is stark. The S&P 500's semiconductor weighting has reached a record 19 percent — more than double its level during the dot-com bubble — while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, though still up 55 percent on the year, has slipped into a technical bear market. The Nasdaq Composite is flirting with a 10 percent correction, and its 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 30, while elevated, remains well below the 70-times peak of March 2000. The small-cap profitability gap has been widening for years, driven by a combination of rising interest rates, persistent inflation, and the gravitational pull of mega-cap technology stocks that dominate capital allocation. Smaller companies, which typically carry more floating-rate debt and have less pricing power, have been disproportionately squeezed as the Federal Reserve held rates at elevated levels. The 41.5 percent unprofitable figure represents a deterioration from prior cycles and raises questions about the index's composition and the quality of earnings in the small-cap segment. **The Index Construction Problem** Part of the issue is mechanical. The Russell 2000 includes companies based on market capitalization, not profitability. As unprofitable companies go public through IPO markets that have favored growth stories over earnings discipline, the index has accumulated a growing share of money-losing entities. This creates a feedback loop: the index becomes riskier, attracting more speculative capital, which further inflates unprofitable names. The concentration risk is not limited to small caps. The S&P 500's top-heavy weighting in technology and semiconductor stocks — a record 19 percent — means that a correction in AI-related names could ripple through the broader market in ways that resemble the dot-com bust, even if the Nasdaq's overall valuation is less stretched today. The 2000 crash saw the Nasdaq plunge 75 percent and take 15 years to recover, despite the internet fundamentally changing the world. A similar dynamic could play out with AI, where investors may be correct about the long-term thesis but still lose money on the timing. **What This Means for Positioning** For portfolio managers, the 41.5 percent figure is a warning against passive small-cap exposure. The Russell 2000's profitability problem means that index investors are effectively buying a basket where two out of every five holdings are destroying value. Active managers who can differentiate between viable small caps and cash-burning zombies may have a structural edge, but the broader implication is that the equity market's risk profile is bifurcated: mega-cap tech offers concentration risk, while small caps offer earnings risk. The next catalyst for the small-cap space will be the Fed's September meeting, where rate-cut expectations will determine whether the Russell 2000's unprofitable companies get a reprieve on debt servicing costs. If rates stay higher for longer, the 41.5 percent figure could climb further, potentially triggering a wave of delistings and index reconstitution that would reshape the small-cap landscape for years. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Jul 30 2026, 12:49

PCE inflation gauge drops for first time since 2020 on Iran truce

**The first decline in the Fed's preferred inflation measure since the pandemic era opens the door for a more accommodative monetary policy stance.** The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge fell for the first time since the pandemic in July, with lower gasoline prices after a temporary truce with Iran pulling the index lower. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index declined from the prior month, breaking a streak of consecutive increases that began in 2020. "The decline is welcome, but the danger is far from over," the Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its July 30 report, noting that lower energy costs after the temporary Iran ceasefire were the primary disinflationary driver. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, remained elevated relative to the Fed's 2% target. The PCE index stood at 2.6% in March 2025 before the recent decline, according to Fed data. The July reading marks the first monthly drop since the pandemic-era lows of 2020, when the Fed slashed rates to near zero and inflation briefly turned negative. The central bank's target rate currently sits at 3.50% to 3.75% after three consecutive 25-basis-point cuts in late 2025. The decline signals potential easing of inflationary pressures that could shift the Fed toward a more dovish stance. Lower inflation readings typically boost risk assets including equities, push bond yields lower and weaken the US dollar. JPMorgan has forecast GDP growth of 1.5% to 2% amid rising inflation if spending remains resilient, though the bank cautioned that Middle Eastern conflicts continue to complicate the outlook. The temporary truce with Iran helped drive gasoline prices lower, providing immediate relief at the pump. Energy costs had been a persistent source of upward pressure on headline inflation after conflicts in the Middle East sent oil prices soaring. The predictions market is pricing in at least one rate hike before year-end, suggesting the disinflation may prove short-lived if geopolitical tensions resume. The last time the PCE index recorded a sustained decline was during the initial months of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, when the Fed cut rates to zero and launched quantitative easing. That period saw inflation fall below the central bank's target for years, eventually forcing the Fed to adopt an average inflation targeting framework. The current environment differs markedly, with core inflation still running above 2% and the labor market showing resilience. The Fed's next policy decision is scheduled for September 15-16, when the FOMC will also release its Summary of Economic Projections. Markets will be watching closely for any shift in the dot plot that reflects the new inflation data. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.