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Chinese funds push electronics allocation to record 43.4% before tech crash
Edgen Stock·Jul 23 2026, 00:47Share to
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[1] Extreme Herding! An "Unprecedented" Fund Quarterly Report and Current Allocation Suggestions (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777730 ...)[2] Nomura Core Equity Fund Q2 2026 Portfolio Review (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4924261-nomu ...)[3] Marvell Already Crashed 40% — It May Be the Best Deal to Buy on the Semi Stock Meltdown (https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/07/22/ma ...)[4] Why Richtech Robotics Stock Dived by Nearly 35% in the First Half of 2026 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/why ...)[5] SpaceX Stock Is Down 36% From Its Post-IPO Peak. History Says a $10,000 Investment Will Be Worth This Much by June 2027. (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/spa ...)
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Jul 23 2026, 02:08
Fed's Warsh leaves traders guessing with 30% chance of July hike
Days before the Fed's July 29 decision, swap markets still cannot agree on whether rates will move — a level of pre-meeting uncertainty unseen in modern central banking. Chair Kevin Warsh's abandonment of forward guidance has left bond traders guessing until the final days before the July 29 FOMC decision, with swap markets pricing just a 30% probability of a quarter-point hike against a 70% chance of a hold. "No forward guidance means we'll regularly see 20%, 30%, 40% probability distributions," said Jim Bianco, president and macro strategist at Bianco Research. "The market is transitioning to this new way of thinking." The uncertainty has already amplified bond market volatility. The US 10-year yield stood at 4.55% after rising 0.9 basis points on July 17, a session when stocks fell and oil surged — an unusual combination that reflects inflation fears rather than recession concerns. The S&P 500 dropped 1.01% to 7,457.69 while Brent crude jumped 4.59% to $88.10 a barrel as US-Iran tensions threatened the Strait of Hormuz. A surprise hike on July 29 would mark the first rate increase since the Fed cut to the current 3.5%-3.75% target range, potentially triggering a sharp selloff in equities and a rally in the dollar. A hold, by contrast, would only delay the reckoning: swap markets already fully price a quarter-point hike by September and imply more than two cumulative increases by March 2027. The fog surrounding next week's decision is a direct consequence of Warsh's deliberate break with precedent. Since taking office in May, the new chair has dismantled the Fed's long-standing practice of signaling policy moves weeks in advance, arguing that telegraphed decisions box policymakers in when inflation data shifts unexpectedly. His predecessor, Jerome Powell, typically used speeches and media appearances to prepare markets — the last time Wall Street faced comparable ambiguity was September 2024, when traders debated whether the Fed would cut by 25 or 50 basis points. Powell ultimately chose the larger reduction. **Inflation data sends conflicting signals** The confusion is rooted in genuinely mixed economic indicators. The Consumer Price Index has fallen to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2%, and core CPI has eased to 2.6% — progress that briefly led bond traders to lean against a July hike after the June CPI print showed its first decline in six years. Yet the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, tells a different story: headline PCE has risen to 4.1% from 3.8%, while core PCE stands at 3.4%. With the effective federal funds rate at 3.63% and CPI at 3.5%, the real policy rate sits at approximately 0.13% — barely restrictive territory by historical standards. Warsh has repeatedly warned that inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, and his recent remarks linking near-term tightening to core CPI trends have kept a July hike on the table. The US-Iran escalation adds another complication: a sustained rise in crude oil prices would feed into consumer prices within months, potentially forcing the Fed's hand even if domestic data softens. **Economists and traders diverge sharply** One striking feature of this decision cycle is the gap between professional forecasters and market participants. All 76 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the Fed to hold rates steady at the July 28-29 meeting. Traders, however, see a material chance of action. "I still don't think the Fed will hike next week, but the market tells me the vote will be closer than I expected," said John Brady, managing director at RJ O'Brien. This divergence is itself a product of Warsh's new regime. In the forward-guidance era, economist surveys and market pricing rarely diverged this close to a meeting because the outcome was effectively pre-announced. The current split means that whichever way the decision goes, a significant portion of the market will be wrong — and positioned accordingly. For traders, the new rules mean higher potential payoffs for correct calls but steeper losses for wrong ones. Rate volatility is likely to remain elevated through the decision, with the VIX — the S&P 500's fear gauge — already at 18.77 after a 12.19% jump on July 17. The next major data point before the meeting is the July 23 initial jobless claims report, followed by the July 24 flash services PMI, either of which could shift the probability calculus in the final days. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 23 2026, 01:51
Las Vegas Sands misses Q2 estimates as World Cup, low hold weigh on results
Las Vegas Sands Corp. reported second-quarter revenue of $3.15 billion and adjusted earnings of $0.59 a share, missing consensus estimates by $160 million and $0.17 respectively, as the World Cup disrupted high-value travel and an unusually low hold rate weighed on Macau results. "The results this quarter reinforce our view that Marina Bay Sands' structural earnings power has been elevated," Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Patrick Dumont said on the earnings call. "If we had held as expected in our rolling play, our EBITDA would have been $37 million lower, or $652 million." Marina Bay Sands generated $689 million in property EBITDA, with mass gaming revenue rising 5% from a year earlier despite softer tourism demand. In Macau, Sands China posted $430 million in EBITDA, dragged down by a VIP rolling hold of 1.35% — the lowest in the company's history in the market. On a hold-adjusted basis, Macau EBITDA would have been $517 million. Sands China's mass gross gaming revenue grew 8% year over year, double the broader market's 4% expansion, while rolling chip volume surged 73%. The miss comes as the company invests heavily in product upgrades and service enhancements across both markets. In Macau, the renovation of all 2,900 rooms and suites at The Venetian is underway, with completion targeted by Chinese New Year 2028. At Marina Bay Sands, an expansion that will add premium suite capacity and a new arena remains on track for an early 2031 opening. LVS repurchased $787 million of its stock during the quarter and the board authorized a new $6 billion buyback program. The stock fell 4.97% in after-hours trading to $43.00. The results underscore the near-term headwinds facing LVS, but management maintained its target of reaching $700 million in quarterly EBITDA in Macau over time as product upgrades and service improvements take hold. Investors will watch for a rebound in high-value visitation following the World Cup and for progress on the Venetian renovation, which is expected to begin contributing incremental suite inventory through 2027. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 23 2026, 01:47
Tesla slides 4% after hours as Q2 earnings miss, FCF turns negative
Tesla reported Q2 revenue of $28.24B, beating estimates by 7%, but adjusted EPS of $0.33 missed by 39%. "Operating expenses will continue to elevate this year and beyond as higher commodity prices and interest rates continue to increase company costs," CFO Vaibhav Taneja said. Net income fell 5% to $1.11B from $1.17B a year earlier. Free cash flow turned negative $1.1B as capital expenditure surged 142% to $5.79B. Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits was 16.3%, down from 19.2% in Q1 but up from 15% in Q2 2025. Energy storage revenue rose 13% to $3.1B. Shares fell 4.13% in after-hours trading to $358.55. The earnings miss and negative free cash flow underscore the cost of Tesla's AI and robotics investments, with the company calling it "the largest and most exciting period of investment" in its history. **Revenue beat, profit miss** Revenue of $28.24B topped the consensus estimate of $26.36B, rising 26% from $22.5B in Q2 2025. The top-line beat was driven by record deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year over year. But profitability deteriorated sharply. Adjusted EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.54 consensus by 39% and declined 18% from $0.40 a year earlier. Operating expenses surged 47%, driven by AI infrastructure buildout and stock-based compensation, pushing operating margins down to 1.4%. **CapEx surge pressures cash** Tesla's capital spending more than doubled to $5.79B, flipping free cash flow from positive $1.44B in Q1 to negative $1.1B in Q2. The company held $43.5B in cash on hand. CEO Elon Musk said during the earnings call that Tesla will soon announce details regarding a chip factory and has already ordered equipment. He also said the company is installing the first-generation production line for the Optimus robot and will begin production soon, calling it "the most difficult product the company has ever manufactured to scale." **Margin compression in focus** Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits fell to 16.3% from 19.2% in Q1, as one-time warranty and tariff gains from the prior quarter did not repeat. Regulatory credit revenue continued to normalize lower, adding to margin pressure. The earnings miss and negative free cash flow signal that Tesla's heavy investment cycle is weighing on near-term profitability. Investors will watch for any updates on Optimus production timelines and Robotaxi expansion in the coming quarters. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.