

**The Fed's hold on rates has pushed 10-year yields to a 19-year high, creating a bear steepener that threatens stocks.** S&P 500 futures rose 0.51% to 7,510.25 after the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, even as 10-year Treasury yields hit a 19-year high. "The Fed's decision aligns with a data-dependent approach," said Kim Escue, portfolio manager at Shelton Capital Management. "Moderating inflation, expectations for softer PCE data, slowing GDP growth, and a normalizing labor market all support keeping rates unchanged." The 10-year yield climbed more than 14 basis points since the June meeting to 4.68%, extending what bond watchers call a "bear steepener" — a pattern where long-term yields rise faster than short-term ones. Three Fed officials dissented: Cleveland's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis' Neel Kashkari, and Dallas' Lorie Logan each voted for a 25-basis-point rate increase. The pattern echoes 1966, which began a 16-year stretch when U.S. stocks went nowhere, and 1987, the year of the worst single-day crash ever. With inflation above target for more than five years and debt held by the public on track to pass $40 trillion, the stakes for equity investors are rising. Warsh, in his second policy meeting as Fed chair, argued that rising Treasury yields are tightening financial conditions on their own, effectively delivering the restraint typically associated with higher interest rates. He described the policy debate as a "good family fight" and said markets are "learning how to play ball" instead of relying on central bankers to officiate. The hands-off approach drew criticism. "The central bank isn't a neutral umpire, it is the most important player in the game," said Greg Ip, chief economics commentator at the Wall Street Journal. The bond market's message was clear: for all of Warsh's tough talk about taming inflation, he's in no rush to use the power of the central bank to do it, according to Bloomberg. ## Tech Earnings Split Market as Yields Climb The equity reaction was mixed as mega-cap earnings collided with the rates backdrop. Microsoft posted the biggest single-day market value gain for any company ever — $450 billion — after its results. Apple shares fell 7% in after-hours trading, set to erase about $350 billion of market value. Amazon jumped 12% in premarket trading after reporting accelerating cloud-computing sales and boosting its capital-spending forecast. The real (inflation-adjusted) yield on the long bond just hit a multidecade high, and the 10-year nominal yield at 4.68% is pressuring equity valuations, particularly in growth and technology sectors. Gold fell 1.23% to $4,109.40, while crude oil rose 0.63% to $84.12. ## Fiscal Concerns Weigh on Long End America's fiscal health is adding to the pressure. Debt held by the public is on track to blow past $40 trillion very soon. Buying the longest-term debt requires faith that the pile of IOUs will be honored. Nobody expects the U.S. to actually default, but the release valve for high debt and deficits might be a future inflation surge. For stock investors, the combination of a hawkish hold, rising long-term yields, and fiscal concerns creates a challenging backdrop. The bear steepener pattern, if it persists, historically has been a warning sign for equities. The next FOMC meeting will be closely watched for whether Warsh's tough talk translates into action. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

The S&P 500 fell 1.5 percent Wednesday after the 30-year Treasury yield spiked to 5.2 percent, its highest since 2008, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's bear steepener rattled markets. The index recovered 1.3 percent to 7,413 Thursday, but the rebound was narrow, led by a 16.6 percent surge in Microsoft. "The historic problem with data dependence is the data and the dependence," Warsh said at his second FOMC press conference, offering little clarity on how the Fed plans to return inflation to its 2 percent target. He rejected the notion that the no-move rate decision was a pause and declined to signal what would trigger a hike. "We've got no magic wand," he acknowledged. The FOMC held rates steady in a 9-3 vote, with three dissents and no explanation of the disagreement. The statement was nearly an exact reprint of June's, suggesting Warsh sees little change in the data the Fed considers. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, had fallen to 2.6 percent before rising again on energy costs tied to the war in Iran. Second-quarter GDP slowed to an annualized 1.5 percent from 2.1 percent, while June core PCE rose just 0.1 percent month over month, undershooting forecasts. Warsh's reluctance to provide forward guidance — he has questioned the value of dot plots and even press conferences — leaves investors guessing on the next move. Rate-hike odds for September fell to roughly 55 percent from nearly 80 percent before the decision, yet the long end of the curve keeps climbing. The 30-year yield held at 5.21 percent Thursday, its highest since 2007. ## Microsoft's Cloud Print Reshapes the AI Trade Microsoft surged 16.6 percent Thursday — its best session since October 2008 — after reporting 43 percent cloud revenue growth, its fastest since 2022. Capital expenditure guidance that did not outpace expectations eased fears that AI spending has run ahead of returns. The move dragged semiconductor names sharply higher, with Micron up 17 percent, Lam Research up 18.4 percent and SanDisk up 23.9 percent. Meta Platforms sank 9.2 percent after guidance missed and investors questioned when its AI labs will convert into revenue. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund led the tape with a 4.7 percent gain, while the Communication Services fund fell 3.2 percent under Meta's weight. Defensives were sold to fund the move: consumer staples fell 2.2 percent, health care dropped 1.8 percent and real estate declined 1.7 percent. ## Apple's Supply Chain Squeeze Apple fell 1.9 percent Thursday and traded about 6 percent lower after hours despite beating on earnings and revenue. The company reported EPS of $2.02 versus the $1.89 consensus on revenue of $109.42 billion, up 15 percent year over year. iPhone sales surged 22 percent to $54.25 billion, and Mac revenue jumped 29 percent to $10.35 billion. But Apple guided fourth-quarter revenue growth of 9 to 11 percent, below the 12 percent consensus, blaming what outgoing CEO Tim Cook called a "hundred-year flood" in memory chip prices. "The memory prices are choking, so we'll have to look at alternatives," Cook said. The company has already raised Mac and iPad prices and faces pressure to increase iPhone prices, which analysts expect later this year. Gold rose 1 percent to $4,108 an ounce as the softer dollar and lower front-end yields lent support. The Russell 2000 added 0.8 percent to 2,929, while the Dow advanced 424 points to 52,019. The bear steepener — long yields rising faster than short yields — typically tightens financial conditions and pressures equity valuations, particularly growth and technology stocks. With Warsh preferring the Fed to operate as a black box, investors face wider swings in asset prices when rate decisions come. The next FOMC meeting in September will test whether the market's 55 percent hike odds hold. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Melrose H1 revenue rose 10 percent to £1.87 billion, operating profit up 16 percent, as Garden Grove incident adds £30 million in costs. "We are managing the situation at our Garden Grove transparencies site following the incident in May," Chief Executive Peter Dilnot said. "Partial production has since resumed, and we will continue to work closely with customers, regulators and other authorities to safely restore the site to full production in the second half." The incident at the California facility, which produces aerospace transparencies including fighter-jet canopies and passenger-cabin windows, reduced first-half revenue by £16 million and adjusted operating profit by £9 million. The company expects the site to operate at about 50 percent of normal monthly revenue until full acrylic production resumes, with a resulting revenue, profit and cash impact of about £6 million per month. Melrose recorded £13 million of exceptional costs in the first half and expects a further £25 million to £30 million in the second half, excluding potential legal, regulatory and insurance effects. Shares fell 3.5 percent to 458.8 pence. The company paused its £175 million share buyback program after spending £12 million under that authorization, while maintaining full-year guidance of £3.75 billion to £3.95 billion in revenue and £700 million to £750 million in adjusted operating profit. Melrose reiterated confidence in reaching £600 million of free cash flow by 2029. Adjusted pretax profit rose 18 percent to £282 million, while earnings per share climbed more than 20 percent. Adjusted operating margin expanded 50 basis points to 18.5 percent, and free cash flow improved by £67 million to an inflow of £13 million. Net debt stood at £1.53 billion at the end of June, equal to 1.8 times EBITDA and within the company's stated leverage policy of 1.5 to two times. The Engines division delivered revenue growth of 19 percent, with original-equipment revenue up 23 percent and aftermarket revenue continuing at mid-teen rates. Operating profit in the division rose 21 percent, while margin expanded 40 basis points. Civil risk-and-revenue-sharing programs grew 18 percent, with growth on the GTF, GEnx and V2500 platforms. Government partnership revenue increased 29 percent, driven primarily by work on the RM12 engine for the Gripen fighter, including delivery of the first upgraded engine to the Swedish Armed Forces. Airframes revenue rose 4 percent on a reported basis, while profit declined 1 percent. Excluding Garden Grove, revenue growth would have been 6 percent and profit growth 13 percent. Defense revenue in Airframes increased 14 percent, led by F-35, C-130 and NH90 work, while civil revenue was down marginally on lower customer inventory on the Airbus A320 platform. The company said Airbus and Boeing recorded more than 1,300 new orders combined in the first half, with both manufacturers posting double-digit delivery increases, pointing to a gradual easing of supply-chain constraints. The Garden Grove disruption creates near-term uncertainty around production timing and shareholder returns, with the buyback pause reflecting management's caution until the full financial impact is known. Investors will watch for the site's return to full production in the second half and the resumption of the buyback program as key catalysts. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.