

**The KOSPI's 28% plunge from its June peak was a leverage-driven stampede, not a fundamental breakdown — and the worst of the unwind is already behind it, according to JPMorgan.** The KOSPI has fallen about 28% from its June 22 record high of 9,385 to around 6,516, driven by a forced unwind of leveraged ETF and hedge fund positions that JPMorgan estimates is more than halfway complete. "The correction, which began with typical fundamental concerns and sector rotation, was amplified through leveraged ETFs, and recently we are seeing strong signs of position liquidation by hedge funds," analysts including Mixo Das at JPMorgan said in a July 21 report. The bank maintained its overweight rating on South Korea with a 12-month KOSPI target of 12,500. Leveraged ETF assets tracking Korean equities have shrunk to about $26 billion from $50 billion at end-June, representing roughly 75% of the necessary deleveraging toward JPMorgan's estimated $18 billion equilibrium level. Hedge fund long-short ratios on the bank's prime book have fallen from above 5.5 times to below 4 times, with more than half of the deleveraging complete. Foreign outflows this year have exceeded $110 billion, with about 90% concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as their MSCI Emerging Markets index weights triggered passive selling. The speed and scale of the unwind has left the KOSPI vulnerable to further volatility — the Korea Volatility Index ratio versus the VIX stands near 5 times, versus a normal level of about 1 time — but JPMorgan argues the fundamental case for Korean equities remains intact. The bank's 12,500 target implies roughly 50% upside from current levels, contingent on AI demand holding up, concentrated foreign selling continuing to ease, and regulatory tightening not choking off retail participation entirely. **Leveraged ETF Bubble Deflates as Regulators Step In** The leveraged ETF market has been the primary amplifier of KOSPI volatility. At its June peak, Korean asset-linked leveraged ETF AUM reached $50 billion — roughly four times the U.S. level relative to market size, per JPMorgan. As the selloff deepened, forced deleveraging created a self-reinforcing cycle of falling prices and position liquidations. South Korean regulators have moved to prevent a repeat. Starting Aug. 5, the minimum deposit for single-stock leveraged products will rise to 30 million won ($22,600) from an effective 3 million won. From Aug. 19, only cash will count toward initial margin. By November, the minimum trading unit will increase from one share to 20 shares. New listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs have been suspended. The measures limit the speed at which leveraged capital can return, even if retail sentiment recovers. **Foreign Selling Concentrated, Not Systemic** The $110 billion in year-to-date foreign outflows looks alarming in aggregate, but JPMorgan's analysis shows the selling is overwhelmingly passive and concentrated. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix alone account for about 90% of the outflow, driven by their outsized weights in the MSCI Emerging Markets index triggering mandatory rebalancing by benchmark-constrained funds. Those weights have already fallen — Samsung from 9.5% to 7.5% and SK Hynix from 8.3% to 5.7% since end-June — reducing the forced selling pressure. JPMorgan views this as a mechanical adjustment rather than a loss of confidence in Korean assets. **Earnings Momentum Remains Upward** Despite the price collapse, analyst earnings revisions for Korean companies continue to rise. The 2026 EPS estimate for the KOSPI has been revised up 143.4% over the past six months, with the tech sector up 215.5% and industrials up 91%, supported by AI-related demand for high-bandwidth memory, data center construction, and industrial equipment. The risk is that the fundamental support is narrowly concentrated. If AI capital expenditure slows or new technologies reduce the need for high-end memory, the earnings upgrades that underpin JPMorgan's 12,500 target could face renewed scrutiny. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

**European electricity prices face prolonged elevation as the Middle East war, low gas storage and depleted Nordic hydropower reservoirs converge to squeeze supply.** European electricity prices may stay elevated for longer as the Middle East war, low gas storage and depleted Nordic hydropower reservoirs squeeze supply, Statkraft's CEO said. "The combination of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, low natural gas storage levels across Europe and below-normal hydropower reserves in the Nordic region creates a persistent risk of higher power prices," Birgitte Ringstad Vartdal, chief executive officer of the Norwegian utility, said in an interview Tuesday. European natural gas storage facilities are at 67% capacity, below the five-year average of 74% for this time of year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data. Nordic hydropower reservoir levels stand at 42% of capacity, compared with a seasonal norm of 58%, as dry weather reduced inflows. Brent crude traded above $90 a barrel Monday, with prices jumping about 3% as escalating US-Iran hostilities restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The supply crunch threatens to keep European electricity costs elevated through the winter heating season, adding to inflationary pressures across the region. Higher power prices would boost revenue for generators such as Statkraft, E.ON SE and RWE AG, while squeezing margins for energy-intensive industries including chemicals and metals. **Middle East Conflict Disrupts Two Key Energy Routes** The war between Iran and the US has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to a significant portion of global oil shipments, with Goldman Sachs warning crude prices could cross $120 a barrel if disruptions continue. Yemen's Houthi movement has compounded the crisis by declaring a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a chokepoint that saw petroleum volumes of about 7.4 million barrels per day in June, up from 4.2 million a year earlier. Saudi Arabia has redirected more than 70% of its crude exports to the Red Sea via the East-West Pipeline, with exports from the Yanbu terminal reaching a record 4.77 million barrels per day. Any disruption to Red Sea shipping would force tankers to sail around Africa, adding 10 to 14 days to voyages and raising freight costs. **Nordic Hydro Deficit Adds to Winter Risk** The low hydropower reserves in Norway and Sweden compound Europe's energy challenges. Statkraft, which operates more than 400 hydropower plants across the Nordic region, faces reduced generation capacity just as demand typically rises with colder weather. The company's ability to export power to continental Europe via interconnectors may also be constrained if domestic reservoirs remain low. The convergence of these three supply-side risks means European electricity prices could remain above historical averages well into 2027. Investors will watch the pace of Nordic reservoir refill rates through the autumn rainy season and monitor any diplomatic developments in the Middle East that could ease pressure on energy routes. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

General Motors issued fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of $12 to $14 a share, topping consensus, sending shares up more than 4% in pre-market trading. "The guidance raise reflects strong pricing power in our truck and SUV portfolio, which continues to offset softer EV demand," GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said in a statement. The Detroit-based automaker's new outlook compares with the $10.50 to $11.50 range analysts had modeled for the full year, according to data compiled by Benzinga. GM previously raised its adjusted EPS and adjusted EBIT guidance after first-quarter earnings in April, when it took a $1.1 billion hit from an EV slowdown. The company reports second-quarter results Tuesday before the market open, with analysts projecting EPS of $3.15 on revenue of $46.81 billion. The guidance raise signals that GM's strategy of prioritizing high-margin pickup trucks and SUVs over aggressive EV expansion is paying off. GM delivered 714,846 vehicles in the US during the second quarter, ranking first in the region, though total deliveries fell 4% year over year. The company's stock has gained 43% over the past 52 weeks, more than double the return of Tesla, which is up 16% over the same period. Investors will watch Tuesday's earnings call for updated segment-level margins and any further commentary on the company's EV production plans. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.