

**Western nations are racing to secure rare earth supply chains outside China, creating a new investment theme for commodity-focused portfolios.** Rare earth supply chains are drawing increased investor focus as Western governments push to reduce reliance on Chinese sources of the critical minerals used in EVs, wind turbines and defense systems. "The geopolitical dynamics around rare earths are creating a structural shift in supply chains that we haven't seen in decades," Paul Schoffstall, a portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management, said. China controls roughly 60 percent of global rare earth mining and more than 80 percent of processing capacity, according to US Geological Survey data. The US Pentagon's supply deal with Australian miner Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. — valued at roughly $258 million under the Defense Production Act — is facing scrutiny in Malaysia, where Lynas operates its largest processing facility outside China, highlighting the complexity of building alternative supply routes. The push for supply chain diversification could drive capital flows into rare earth mining and refining projects outside China, with the US, Australia and Canada emerging as key beneficiaries. The next catalyst for the sector is the US Department of Energy's updated critical minerals assessment, expected later this year. Rare earth elements — a group of 17 metals including neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium used in permanent magnets — have become a flashpoint in US-China trade tensions. Both the Biden and Trump administrations pursued policies aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese supply, though through different approaches. Sprott's focus on rare earths reflects a broader trend among asset managers seeking exposure to commodities tied to the energy transition and national security. **Supply Chain Bottlenecks Persist** Beyond mining, the bottleneck in rare earth supply chains lies in processing capacity. China's dominance in separation and refining technology means that even ore mined outside China often ends up being processed there. Western-backed projects in Australia, the US and Canada are working to close this gap, but commercial-scale facilities remain years away. Lynas's Malaysian processing plant, which handles ore from its Mount Weld mine in Western Australia, is central to the non-China supply chain but faces local regulatory hurdles. The US has also turned to allies in its procurement strategy, though the approach has drawn criticism. A recent report described Washington's global hunt for rare earths as risking friction with partner nations, as the US pushes for priority access to limited processing capacity. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

European Central Bank board member Piero Cipollone warned that wider stablecoin use would drain retail deposits from commercial banks, sending Coinbase Global Inc. shares down 1.75% to $157 and Circle Internet Group Ltd. down 6% to near $60. "If the use of stablecoins increases in the future, banks will also lose retail deposits," Cipollone said Friday at the annual meeting of Italy's Federation of Cooperative Credit Banks in Rome. The warning echoes concerns raised by US banking groups over the CLARITY Act's stablecoin yield provisions. Coinbase shares fell to $157, with the Chaikin Money Flow reading at -0.05 and the MACD line negative, signaling sustained selling pressure. Circle touched $58 during pre-market trading on July 17, its lowest since February 2026, before recovering to $60. The global stablecoin market stands at roughly $300 billion, almost entirely dollar-denominated, per DefiLlama data. The ECB has named 36 payment providers — including Deutsche Bank, UniCredit and Revolut — for a 12-month digital euro pilot starting in the second half of 2027, after the European Parliament voted 416-169 to begin formal legislative negotiations. In the US, the CLARITY Act's Section 404, which would allow stablecoin issuers to offer yields, has drawn opposition from banking groups who warn it could trigger deposit flight from small banks. The bill has a 69% probability of passing before the August recess, according to betting markets. Cipollone framed the digital euro as the structural answer to the deposit risk. The central bank digital currency would let customers open accounts at their commercial banks and pay across the euro area in shops, online and person-to-person. Holdings would carry no interest, and calibrated limits would cap wallet balances, giving users little reason to move large sums out of the banking system. The ECB's own financial stability analysis concluded the design poses no material risk to bank liquidity. The warning follows a regulatory shakeout in Europe's stablecoin market. Tether skipped Markets in Crypto Assets authorization after the transition period closed on July 1, leading to USDT being pulled from regulated EU exchange order books. A bank consortium called Qivalis — grouping ING, UniCredit, BNP Paribas, CaixaBank and BBVA — is preparing a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin backed one-to-one, with at least 40% of reserves in bank deposits. Analysts see further downside for both stocks. Compass Point warned that Coinbase could fall to $140 if the CLARITY Act does not pass, while Oppenheimer trimmed its price target to $209, citing weak trading volumes on the exchange. Mizuho forecast Circle shares could drop to $50, warning that the new OpenUSD stablecoin may erode Circle's market share. ARK Invest purchased $17 million of Circle shares during the selloff, according to recent filings. The broader payments infrastructure in Europe compounds the structural challenge. Two-thirds of card payments in the euro area now run on non-European schemes, and 13 of the bloc's 21 countries lack a national card scheme, leaving the region reliant on payment rails it does not control. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*

Gold closed at $4,015.83 an ounce, down 1.8% for the week, after repeatedly testing the $4,000 support level. "Gold has failed to inspire and looks poised to challenge the year's low near $3,943," Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said. The metal opened the week at $4,108.18 an ounce before sliding to a weekly low of $3,959.37 on Friday. A brief rally to $4,122.63 on Monday faded after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data — up 0.2% in June — reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive policy. June CPI cooled to 3.5%, but the data failed to provide sustained support. A sustained break below $4,000 could trigger further selling toward $3,600, according to Bank of America technical analysts, while the seasonal pattern suggests gold typically bottoms in early August before resuming its uptrend. **Wall Street Turns Bearish** The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street overwhelmingly bearish on gold's near-term prospects. Of 14 analysts, 11 — or 79% — predicted further price declines, while one expected gains and two saw sideways trading. Main Street sentiment remained divided, with 40% of 169 retail investors looking for higher prices, 36% expecting declines, and 24% forecasting consolidation. "Unlikely to see a breakout to the upside until the sentiment clearly changes to a 'no-hikes' Federal Reserve," Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said he expects gold to decline toward $3,300 by September, citing a continuing downward trend that began with January's peaks. CPM Group issued a sell recommendation at $3,980 an ounce with a target of $3,820 and a stop loss at $4,090. **Oversold Signals Point to Potential Rebound** Despite the bearish sentiment, several indicators suggest the selloff may be reaching exhaustion. Paul Wong, managing partner at Sprott Inc., said gold is trading at minus two to three standard deviations oversold across multiple internal measures. "It means that it's harder and harder to push down the price of gold," Wong said. "The bulk of the selling is probably done." Jesse Colombo, independent precious metals analyst, noted that a triangle pattern has formed on the daily gold chart, with multiple failed attempts to push gold below $3,960. "That's a sign that buyers are coming in at these levels," Colombo said. "My hope is that the selloff is reaching exhaustion." Bank of America technical analyst Paul Ciana said gold's current correction remains disproportionately short relative to the preceding 121-week advance. While prices could test $3,600, he recommended investors consider averaging down to build positions, with accumulation below $4,000 and more aggressive buying in the $3,700 to $3,600 area. The next major catalyst for gold will be the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision on Thursday, followed by July's S&P Global Flash PMI data on Friday. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.