

Gold at $4,072.53/oz has rebounded 2.6% since July 20, but Sinolink Securities calls the move a "false rally" driven by capital rotating out of AI and technology stocks. "The recent gold and silver rebound is the result of capital rotating out of technology stocks as AI momentum unwinds, not the start of a new trend," Sinolink Securities said in a July 24 research note. "Gold has not yet broken out of its downward channel." Gold spot traded at $4,072.53/oz as of 8:42 a.m. ET, down 1.4% in the past 24 hours after hitting a two-week high of $4,165.68 on Wednesday, according to Forbes data. The 24-hour low was $4,064.95. SPDR Gold ETF holdings rose to 1,008 tonnes on July 22 from 999 tonnes on July 17, while COMEX gold futures speculative positions climbed to 194,000 contracts in the week ended July 4. Silver rebounded 4.5% over the same period, while gold mining stocks surged — Zijin Mining gained 16.6% and Shandong Gold rose 15.4%. Sinolink maintained its year-end gold target of $4,300 to $4,500/oz, implying upside of 5.6% to 10.5% from current levels, but cautioned that a sustained rally requires clearer triggers. The firm said a true reversal needs confirmation of three conditions: AI bubble concerns resurfacing, rate-cut expectations restarting, and dollar credit worries re-emerging — none of which are yet evident. **Capital Rotation, Not Fundamentals, Drives Gold's 2.6% Rebound** The report attributed gold's recent bounce to a sector rotation triggered by the unwinding of AI hardware trades, not a fundamental shift in gold's supply-demand balance. Since late June, Brent crude has rallied 32%, the 10-year US real yield has risen 15 basis points, and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has climbed 6 basis points — yet the market's pricing of December Fed rate hikes has only edged up to 1.3 from 1.1, suggesting rate expectations may have peaked. "Rate hike expectations may have passed their most hawkish phase, which has somewhat catalyzed the rebound in gold, silver, and base metals," Sinolink said. However, the firm noted that Google's upward revision of its 2026 capital expenditure plan to $195 billion to $205 billion suggests AI investment remains robust, reducing the likelihood of a near-term AI bubble narrative. **Three Conditions Needed for Gold to Break Higher** Sinolink outlined three scenarios that could unlock higher gold prices. The first, and most probable, is a revival of AI bubble concerns — if cloud capital expenditure returns are questioned, rotation out of tech could strengthen gold's risk-reward profile. The second is a restart of rate-cut expectations, which would require inflation pressures to ease. The third, a dollar credit confidence shock, is a low-probability, high-payoff scenario that could emerge from US fiscal or debt policy risks ahead of the midterm elections. Gold has appreciated 126.6% over the past five years, compared with the S&P 500's 71.6% total return, according to SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust data. The metal's all-time high of $5,597.23 was set on Jan. 29, 2026, and its 52-week low stands at $3,283.00. In a separate session Thursday, gold fell 2.1% to $4,041.59/oz after Brent crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time since late May, fueling inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Silver slid 4.3% to $57.15/oz, platinum dropped 3.1% to $1,593.17, and palladium declined 2.8% to $1,255, according to market data. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Chewy (CHWY) shares dropped 4.93% to $20.46 on July 23, trailing the broader market as the S&P 500 fell 1.21%. The decline came as the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate for the online pet retailer shifted 0.78% lower over the past month. The stock's move outpaced losses across major indices, with the Dow down 0.97% and the Nasdaq losing 2.15%. Despite the single-day decline, Chewy shares have gained 13.2% over the past month, outperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's 2.27% advance and the S&P 500's 0.42% rise. Analysts expect Chewy to report earnings per share of $0.36 in its upcoming quarterly results, up 9.09% from the prior-year period. Revenue is projected at $3.32 billion, representing 6.83% year-over-year growth. For the full fiscal year, the consensus calls for EPS of $1.53 and revenue of $13.49 billion, implying increases of 20.47% and 7.06%, respectively. Chewy carries a Zacks Rank of #5 (Strong Sell), reflecting the downward revision trend. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.09, a discount to the Internet-Commerce industry average of 16.93. Its PEG ratio of 0.57, which accounts for expected earnings growth, compares favorably with the industry's 1.11. The industry itself ranks in the bottom 36% of all Zacks-tracked sectors, at No. 158 out of more than 250. The decline puts Chewy under pressure ahead of its next earnings release, when investors will scrutinize whether the company can reverse the estimate revision trend. The stock's 13.2% monthly gain suggests some optimism remains, but the Zacks Strong Sell rating signals that analysts see further downside risk if results disappoint. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.58% this week, its highest level in nearly 12 months, as rising oil prices from the U.S.-Iran conflict stoked inflation expectations and pushed bond yields higher. "It's not just about rates for homebuyers, but rather the full financial picture of buying," said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. "Home prices hit record highs this summer in many markets across the U.S. while higher gas prices and concerns about overall inflation rising have created more financial strain for would-be buyers." The benchmark rate rose from 6.55% last week, Freddie Mac said Thursday, marking three consecutive weekly increases. One year ago, the average 30-year rate stood at 6.74%. Borrowing costs on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, a popular refinancing option, also rose to 5.96% from 5.93% a week earlier. The 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide for pricing home loans, reached 4.7% at midday Thursday, up from 4.57% a week ago and well above the 3.97% level in late February before the conflict escalated. Higher mortgage rates add hundreds of dollars a month in costs for borrowers, squeezing purchasing power at a time when home prices sit at record highs in many markets. Seasonally adjusted sales of previously occupied U.S. homes ran at roughly a 4 million annual pace through June, far below the historic norm of about 5.2 million. The housing market slump that began in 2022, when rates started climbing from pandemic-era lows, has extended into a third year, with existing home sales essentially flat in 2025 at a 30-year low. The rate increase reflects a broader transmission chain from geopolitical risk to household borrowing costs. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has driven crude oil prices sharply higher since late February, stoking expectations that inflation will prove stickier than anticipated. That has pushed long-term bond yields higher as investors demand greater compensation for inflation risk, directly lifting mortgage rates. The last time the 30-year fixed rate touched this level was in August 2025, when it also hit 6.58%. At that time, the Federal Reserve was in the early stages of what markets expected to be a rate-cutting cycle. Now, rising oil prices threaten to complicate the central bank's path. The Fed does not set mortgage rates directly, but its policy decisions influence the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a benchmark. If inflation accelerates, the Fed may be forced to hold rates higher for longer or even raise them, further pressuring the housing market. For prospective homebuyers, the combination of elevated mortgage rates and record home prices has created an affordability squeeze with no clear relief in sight. The typical monthly payment on a $400,000 home with 20% down at the current 6.58% rate is roughly $2,040, compared with about $1,910 when rates briefly dipped below 6% in late February — a difference of more than $1,500 a year. With gas prices also rising as oil climbs, household budgets face pressure from multiple directions. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*