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US strikes Iran for fifth night as Hormuz shipping collapses to 13 vessels
Edgen Stock·Jul 16 2026, 20:07Share to
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[1] 美军连续第五晚空袭伊朗、霍尔木兹航运跌至战前一成，白宫称伊朗仍在与美对话 (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777140 ...)[2] US expands attacks on Iran, which calls Strait of Hormuz a ‘red line’ as it retaliates (https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-hormuz-str ...)[3] Iran and US step up attacks, though release of American may signal path to climbdown (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-and ...)[4] What remains of the Iran deal as fighting rages (https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-interi ...)[5] Iran warns Strait of Hormuz is an ‘unbreakable red line’ as US expands strikes (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/16/world/live ...)
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Jul 16 2026, 21:00
Steak 'n Shake credits Bitcoin for 16% sales jump without usage data
Steak 'n Shake said US same-store sales rose about 16% in July, attributing part of the gain to Bitcoin adoption without disclosing how many customers paid with the cryptocurrency. "Anyone who doubts the power of Bitcoin is making a BIG mistake," the company posted on X. Michael Boes, an executive at Steak 'n Shake, said at the Bitcoin 2026 conference that Bitcoin transactions cost the chain roughly 50% less to process than credit cards. The company began accepting Bitcoin at US locations in May 2025 and later added the cryptocurrency to a strategic reserve. Boes said total customer count increased by about 2 million year-over-year after the rollout, and that the chain would save about $6 million annually if every credit-card customer switched to Bitcoin. The company also ran promotions including two Liberty Meals for $17.76 and free fries on July 10. Without disclosing Bitcoin order count, share of transactions, or actual fee savings, the claim remains unverifiable — a gap that matters as Steak 'n Shake's parent Biglari Holdings reported 10% same-store sales growth in Q1 before the Bitcoin push, raising questions about how much of the July gain Bitcoin can explain. Biglari Holdings' first-quarter filing showed 10% domestic same-store sales growth and about 13% growth at franchise-partner restaurants for the period ended March 31, establishing that the company's recovery was already underway. First-quarter marketing expense rose to $5.427 million from $3.232 million a year earlier, an increase of about 68%. The restaurant base also shifted. On March 31, Steak 'n Shake had 128 company-operated units, down from 146 a year earlier. Franchise-partner units increased to 182 from 172, while traditional franchise units fell to 96 from 104. Biglari's 2025 shareholder letter credited product quality, a point-of-sale and kiosk overhaul, and the owner-operator model for 10.2% annual same-store sales growth — without mentioning Bitcoin. **The disclosure gap** The missing numbers are Bitcoin order count, share of total transactions, Bitcoin sales value, and actual aggregate fee savings. Without them, there is no way to separate Bitcoin's effect from the pull of the campaign itself, price changes, promotions, menu updates, or shifts in the restaurant mix. The company's Bitcoin payment terms show menu prices remain denominated in US dollars, checkout uses a third-party Bitcoin payment provider, and Steak 'n Shake adds no Bitcoin payment fee — though customers may still face wallet, network, conversion, or exchange-rate costs. If Steak 'n Shake wants other Main Street merchants to treat its strategy as a growth model, the next disclosure needs to connect adoption to outcomes. Store and cohort comparisons would show whether locations with more Bitcoin activity performed differently. Repeat behavior would distinguish one-time curiosity from durable use. For now, Steak 'n Shake has reported strong same-store sales growth and described a per-transaction cost advantage for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin transactions materially helped July growth, sharing those numbers would be the next logical step for the company, which is clearly bullish on Bitcoin. The question for the broader market is whether the PR value of associating with Bitcoin now outweighs the actual transactional utility — a dynamic that could influence how other retail chains approach crypto payments. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 16 2026, 20:57
S&P 500 rangebound for 6 weeks as structural shifts build beneath surface
The S&P 500 has traded in a range of less than 3 percent for six weeks, the narrowest stretch since late 2024, as a rotation out of mega-cap technology stocks into lagging sectors reshapes the market's internal structure. "The market is compressing like a coiled spring — the longer this range holds, the sharper the eventual move," said Priya Mehta, equity market structure analyst at Edgen. "What looks like calm on the surface is actually aggressive repositioning beneath it." The S&P 500 closed near 5,580 on Wednesday, little changed from mid-June levels, while the Nasdaq Composite has slipped 2.3 percent over the same period as semiconductor stocks extended losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, by contrast, has gained 1.8 percent, reflecting a rotation out of growth and into value. The Cboe Volatility Index has held near 15, below its one-year average of 18, but options positioning suggests traders are hedging for a move of at least 4 percent in either direction within the next 30 days. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has oscillated between 4.15 percent and 4.35 percent during the rangebound period, offering no clear directional signal for equities. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has edged lower by 0.6 percent, providing modest support for multinational earnings. West Texas Intermediate crude has held near $78 a barrel, while gold has risen 3.2 percent to $2,410 an ounce as investors rotated into haven assets. **Sector Rotation Accelerates Beneath the Surface** The technology sector, which accounted for more than 40 percent of the S&P 500's year-to-date gains through May, has given back 2.8 percent over the past six weeks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has fallen 5.1 percent in that span, with chipmakers extending losses as export control concerns and softening demand weighed on the group. Meanwhile, financials have gained 3.4 percent, utilities have added 2.9 percent, and energy stocks have risen 2.1 percent, tracking higher oil prices. The equal-weight S&P 500 has outperformed the market-cap-weighted version by 1.7 percentage points over the period, a sign that breadth is improving even as the headline index stalls. **What's at Stake for the Next Move** The compression sets up a binary outcome. A break above 5,650 — the upper end of the six-week range — would likely trigger short covering and momentum buying, pushing the index toward 5,750. A break below 5,480 would expose the 200-day moving average near 5,380 and could accelerate selling as trend-following strategies flip bearish. The next catalyst comes July 31, when the Federal Reserve delivers its rate decision. Markets are pricing in a 68 percent probability of a quarter-point cut, according to CME FedWatch data. A cut — or a signal that one is coming in September — could provide the trigger for a breakout. A hawkish hold would risk breaking the range to the downside. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 16 2026, 20:32
New Harbor's Llodra warns 60/40 portfolio faces dangerous setup
**The traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio faces a setup more dangerous than at any point in recent history, with stocks near record highs and bonds delivering roughly flat returns over five years, according to New Harbor Financial's John Llodra.** The 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolio faces one of its most dangerous setups in history, with the S&P 500 near record highs and bonds flat over five years, John Llodra of New Harbor Financial said. "I think we're in one of the most dangerous times in history to be taking that kind of approach," Llodra said on Adam Taggart's Thoughtful Money channel, referring to passive indexing across equities and fixed income. The iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF trades near $98 and has delivered roughly flat annualized returns over the past five years and about 1.5 percent annually over the past decade on a total-return basis. The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.58 percent, well above post-financial-crisis levels, thinning the diversification cushion that defined the traditional portfolio. Llodra cited the dot-com crash, which lasted two years, and the Global Financial Crisis, which ran 15 months, as drawdowns short enough to feel survivable yet long enough to wipe out a full decade of real 60/40 returns. For investors within a decade of retirement, a lost decade absorbed unprepared could delay retirement indefinitely or force some to unretire, Taggart said. Llodra argued that the price paid at today's index levels, combined with mediocre bond math and softening consumer data, sets a low bar for real returns over the next 10 years. **The Broken Math of the 60/40 Portfolio** The bond side of the portfolio is already testing investors. AGG has returned negative 0.72 percent over the past five years on a price basis, while the S&P 500 sits near all-time highs. That divergence exposes a core problem: the diversification cushion that made the 60/40 work for decades has thinned considerably with the 10-year yield at 4.58 percent. Llodra pointed to a chart of real, inflation-adjusted returns to argue that brief episodes do not mean they are not hugely damaging. The dot-com crash wiped out a full decade of real 60/40 returns in two years. The Global Financial Crisis did similar damage in 15 months. **Why a Lost Decade Rarely Feels Like One** Llodra warned that bear markets seldom fall in a straight line. "They oftentimes are huge declines followed by blistering rallies followed by another decline," he said, describing the whipsaw pattern that trains passive investors to buy every dip until the final leg down. The March 2026 VIX spike to 35.3, followed by the current retreat to 15.70, is a small-scale example of that volatility clustering. The macro backdrop offers mixed signals. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 44.8 in May 2026, a level historically associated with recessionary periods. Real GDP growth slowed to 0.5 percent annualized in Q4 2025 before rebounding to 2.1 percent in Q1 2026, while core PCE inflation remains elevated near the upper end of its trailing 12-month range. Two indicators push back against a recession call. The 10-year and 2-year Treasury spread has returned to positive territory at roughly 42 basis points, while the Sahm Rule recession indicator stands at 0.07, well below its 0.50 recession threshold. Labor markets are not signaling an imminent downturn, but the divergence between weak sentiment and elevated asset valuations creates an unusual macro backdrop. Host Adam Taggart framed the human stakes bluntly, noting that most of his audience is 45 or older. "The time to prepare for this stuff is now while the sun is still shining and you haven't taken the losses that this type of lost decade could bring to you," he said. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.