

Kaiser Aluminum reported Q2 EPS of $5.53, more than doubling the $2.72 consensus, on revenue of $1.26 billion. The company did not provide a management commentary or analyst quote in its initial release. The results were published after the market close on July 22. | Metric | Actual | Consensus | Beat/Miss | |--------|--------|-----------|-----------| | Revenue | $1.26B | $1.14B | +10.2% | | EPS | $5.53 | $2.72 | +$2.81 | The EPS beat of $2.81 per share represents a 104% upside versus the average analyst estimate, while revenue exceeded forecasts by approximately $116 million. The company has not yet disclosed segment-level breakdowns or updated guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2026. A year-over-year comparison was not immediately available from the release. Kaiser Aluminum, based in Franklin, Tennessee, produces fabricated aluminum products for aerospace, automotive, and general industrial applications. The company operates through three segments: aerospace and high-strength products, automotive extruded products, and general engineered products. It competes with Alcoa Corp. and Century Aluminum Co. in the specialty metals space. Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange have fluctuated this year, influenced by global demand from the aerospace sector and automotive supply chains. The aerospace industry, a key customer for Kaiser's high-strength aluminum plate and sheet products, has seen sustained production rates from Boeing and Airbus. On the automotive side, demand for lightweight aluminum components has grown as automakers push for improved fuel efficiency and electric vehicle range. The magnitude of the earnings beat suggests stronger-than-expected operational performance across Kaiser's end markets. An EPS surprise of this size typically triggers multiple upward estimate revisions from Wall Street analysts in the following weeks. The company's operating leverage appears to have benefited from higher volumes and favorable product mix in its aerospace and automotive segments. The revenue beat of 10.2% indicates that demand exceeded expectations across multiple product lines. The strong quarter puts Kaiser Aluminum in line for potential upward revisions from sell-side analysts covering the specialty metals sector. Investors will watch the earnings call for details on demand trends across its end markets and any updates to full-year 2026 guidance. The company's next key event is the earnings call, where management is expected to discuss the drivers behind the substantial beat and provide forward-looking commentary. Kaiser shares have historically gained in the session following a beat of this magnitude. The Q2 results set a high bar for the second half of fiscal 2026, and the market will be watching closely for any signs of sustained momentum. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

**Gold's 28% slide from its January record accelerated as $100 Brent crude and a 4.70% 10-year yield pushed September rate-hike odds to 80%.** Gold traded near $4,000 an ounce on July 23, down 28% from its January record, as Brent crude breached $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.70%. JPMorgan cut its fourth-quarter gold forecast to $4,500 an ounce from $6,000 on July 3, with analysts at the bank seeing Q3 averaging $4,300, according to a research note. Markets now price an 80% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting, according to CME FedWatch data, as the inflationary shock from $100 oil pushes the central bank toward tightening. The 10-year yield settled above 4.70%, while the US Dollar Index climbed to a 13-month high. Gold has spent 31 consecutive trading days below its 200-day moving average, the longest such streak since 2022, with a death cross active since the 50-day average crossed below the 200-day line. The $4,000 level represents a critical technical threshold. A sustained break below it could trigger selling toward the low $3,000s, while a recovery above the 200-day moving average near $4,400 would signal a potential reversal. The September Fed meeting and upcoming inflation data will determine the next direction. **$100 Brent Reshapes the Macro Backdrop** The US-Iran conflict that escalated in late February sent oil prices up roughly 30%, with Brent crude crossing $100 a barrel on July 23. The inflationary impulse from higher energy costs pushed markets to price out Fed rate cuts and price in hikes, inverting the typical safe-haven logic that would normally benefit gold during geopolitical stress. The 10-year real yield climbed above 4.50%, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. **Fund Managers Flip on Valuation** The Bank of America July Global Fund Manager Survey showed a net 6% of 181 institutional managers now call gold undervalued, the first negative overvaluation reading since March 2023. The last time sentiment flipped this way, gold traded below $2,000 before rallying to $5,598 in January 2026. Average cash levels dropped to 3.6% of assets, triggering a contrarian sell signal under BofA's Cash Rule for risk assets. **What Banks Now Forecast** JPMorgan cut its Q4 2026 gold forecast to $4,500 an ounce from $6,000 on July 3, seeing Q3 averaging $4,300. Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end target to $4,900 from $5,400 in June, warning that an actual Fed hike could push prices to $4,400. ING trimmed its Q3 and Q4 forecasts to $4,300 and $4,600 respectively, citing a stronger dollar and softer demand. All three banks maintained a bullish long-term view, pointing to central-bank buying of roughly 60 tonnes a month as a structural floor. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Dow Inc. reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $1.44 per share, beating the $1.25 consensus estimate by 15% as higher pricing and internal cost-cutting initiatives drove a sharp profit rebound. Management attributed the outperformance to supportive market conditions and stronger-than-expected results from the company's self-help programs, according to the earnings release. The materials science company generated $12.09 billion in revenue, up 19.7% from a year earlier and ahead of the $11.6 billion analysts had forecast. Adjusted earnings reversed a loss of 42 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. On a GAAP basis, net income reached $802 million, or 99 cents per share, compared with a loss of $801 million a year earlier. Operating EBITDA surged to $2.3 billion from $703 million, driven by margin expansion across all three business segments. Operating cash flow from continuing operations totaled $1.3 billion, reversing a use of $470 million in the prior-year period. Local prices rose 20% year over year, led by higher polyethylene prices across regions, while volumes declined 1% as planned maintenance weighed on the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment. That unit posted sales of $6.4 billion, up 27%, though volumes fell 4%. Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure revenue increased 14% to $3.2 billion, with 15% higher pricing offsetting a 2% volume decline tied to lower polyurethane demand and Middle East-related disruptions. Performance Materials & Coatings sales grew 11% to $2.4 billion, supported by a 6% volume gain driven by downstream silicones and consumer applications. The company achieved more than $300 million in quarterly benefits from its self-help initiatives and completed its $1 billion 2025 cost-savings program. Dow raised its 2026 self-help target to more than $1.3 billion, up $200 million from its prior outlook, and remains on track for $2 billion in cumulative savings by 2027 under its Transform to Outperform program. About 55% of planned workforce reductions are complete, expected to generate more than $200 million in EBITDA benefits in the second half of 2026. For the third quarter, Dow expects EBITDA of about $1 billion, reflecting normalized seasonal demand and lower polyethylene pricing after June settlements. The company anticipates roughly $130 million in sequential benefits from self-help initiatives, including early gains from the Barry siloxanes unit shutdown, which should offset higher maintenance costs. Shares rose 2.5% to $32.03 on Thursday and have gained about 33.7% year to date, outpacing the S&P 500's 9.6% advance. The guidance raise signals management expects continued momentum from cost actions and pricing power. Investors will watch the Q3 earnings call for updates on segment margins and the pace of the Transform to Outperform program. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.