

The U.S.-Iran war has eroded Qatar and the UAE's reputation as reliable LNG suppliers, giving buyers leverage to demand lower prices and stronger supply guarantees in contract negotiations, according to buyers, traders and industry executives. "Anyone entering into new contracts in the Gulf region will also have to take into account potential insurance costs, which are set to increase," Nicola Monti, chief executive of Italy's Edison, said. Edison has a long-term contract for 6.4 billion cubic meters of Qatari gas a year — about 10 percent of Italy's annual demand — and has had deliveries cancelled from April until early September under force majeure. Pre-war long-term LNG contracts from Qatar and the UAE were typically priced at 12.6 percent to 12.7 percent of the Brent crude price, but some deals signed since the conflict began have been concluded closer to 12.3 percent, one industry source said. The Platts Japan Korea Marker, the benchmark for spot LNG cargoes delivered to Asia, has surged to $21.35 per million British thermal units from about $15 at the start of May, after briefly touching $25, its highest since December 2022. Brent crude has risen to more than $93 a barrel from less than $72 before the war. The shift in bargaining power carries billions of dollars in implications. Qatar and the UAE account for about one-fifth of global LNG export capacity, all of which depends on the Strait of Hormuz. With Iranian strikes having damaged Ras Laffan LNG Trains 4 and 6 — sidelining about 12.8 million tonnes per year of capacity for three to five years — and only 26 LNG cargoes having left the Gulf since Feb. 28 compared with the usual 90 to 100 per month, buyers are seeking alternative supply arrangements that could reshape long-term contracting dynamics. The U.S. has spent $37.5 billion on the war so far, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth estimated. **Asian Buyers Seek Guarantees as Supply Diversification Accelerates** Six Asia-based traders said future talks would focus on reducing prices but also raising the security and diversification of supply. Buyers want Qatar and the UAE to provide guarantees of replacement cargoes if exports through Hormuz are disrupted — for example from Qatar's Golden Pass LNG terminal in the United States. India, which sourced almost 60 percent of its LNG imports from the UAE and Qatar before the war, has shifted to shorter-term procurement, with tenders now seeking cargoes 15 to 20 days forward versus more than 25 days previously, according to S&P Global. Asian buyers accounted for nearly 90 percent of LNG shipments that transited the strait last year. **Global LNG Growth Outlook Dims** Before the war, global LNG supply was projected to grow about 11 percent year-on-year in 2026. The lost Qatar and UAE capacity offsets nearly all of that expected growth, with S&P Global now estimating just 1 percent year-on-year expansion. European gas storage is less than 54 percent full compared with 64 percent at the same point last year, while the Dutch natural gas benchmark briefly rose above 60 euros a megawatt hour. Pakistan's LNG imports have dropped 75 percent, South Korea's are down about 10 percent and China's have fallen 8 percent, with gas-to-coal switching underway in all three markets. South Korean regulators have removed caps on coal-fired power generation to allow for more switching away from natural gas. The disruption extends beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have threatened to target Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, putting another trade chokepoint — the Bab el-Mandeb strait — at risk. That waterway normally handles about 7 percent of global oil output. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, global LNG trade might contract for both 2026 and 2027, which would be the first contraction in a decade of strong growth, Shell has suggested. Buyers are increasingly looking to diversify away from Qatar and the UAE, with U.S. Gulf Coast LNG projects emerging as alternative suppliers. U.S. LNG exports are projected to reach 120 million tonnes per year in 2026, with annual export revenues exceeding $60 billion. "For the next wave of energy contracting, we might expect security of supply to jump right to the top of buyers' and policymakers' concerns," James Taverner, executive director of global gas and LNG research at S&P Global, said. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Citi initiated a 30-day positive catalyst watch on Horizon Robotics after the company deepened its autonomous driving partnership with Volkswagen Group. The cooperation will contribute approximately RMB 3 billion in licensing revenue over three years, equivalent to 10-12 percent upside potential for gross profit margin, Citi analysts said. Citi maintained a Buy/High Risk rating with a HKD 12.3 price target, implying about 159 percent upside from the current price of HKD 4.75. CARIZON, the joint venture between Volkswagen and Horizon Robotics, will adopt the company's AI foundation large model licensing model to develop a unified autonomous driving technology platform. The partnership positions Horizon Robotics as a key autonomous driving supplier to one of the world's largest automakers. The broker also expects BYD's "God's Eye" solution to drive market share growth, with competitiveness expected to improve in the second half of 2026. The 30-day catalyst watch is based on the view that the cooperation news will help improve market sentiment, Citi said. Short selling data as of July 23 showed short selling of HKD 188.1 million, representing 33.1 percent of turnover. The RMB 3 billion licensing revenue estimate assumes other conditions remain unchanged, the analysts noted. The gross margin upside of 10-12 percentage points reflects the high-margin nature of the licensing model versus hardware sales. Horizon Robotics, which listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in October 2024, has been expanding partnerships with global automakers beyond its traditional Chinese customer base. The deepened VW cooperation follows the establishment of CARIZON in 2023 as a joint venture focused on autonomous driving solutions for the Chinese market. The Citi call signals growing institutional confidence in Horizon Robotics' licensing revenue model. Investors will watch for further partnership announcements and the ramp-up of BYD's "God's Eye" adoption as the next catalysts. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

**China has resumed issuing robotaxi licenses after a three-month freeze triggered by a Baidu autonomous vehicle outage in Wuhan, clearing the path for companies including Momenta and Baidu to restart operations.** Chinese regulators resumed issuing robotaxi permits after a three-month suspension, allowing Momenta to restart trials in Shenzhen and showing that Baidu's Apollo Go operations in Wuhan may also recover. "The resumption is occurring gradually in some cities following the completion of an industry-wide review in late June," people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, declining to be identified as they were not authorized to speak to media. Regulators suspended new autonomous driving permits in April after more than 100 Baidu robotaxis suffered a system malfunction on roads in Wuhan on March 31, stranding passengers and causing traffic disruptions. The incident triggered a full safety review across the industry that concluded in late June. The freeze had stalled China's fast-growing robotaxi sector, where companies including Baidu, Pony.ai, WeRide and Momenta had been racing to expand commercial operations. The resumption allows these companies to return to their growth trajectories, with Shenzhen becoming a key testbed after amending its intelligent connected vehicle regulation to explore opening the entire city to robotaxis. Momenta announced on July 21 that it received a permit for intelligent connected vehicle road testing in Shenzhen, making the southern tech hub its fourth core city in China after Shanghai, Suzhou and Wuxi. The company was among the first to receive a permit under the resumed licensing regime, according to the Bloomberg report. Baidu's operations in Wuhan, the central Chinese megacity that had become the company's flagship robotaxi market, are also showing signs of recovery. Since early July, local residents have posted videos and photos on Chinese social media showing Apollo Go vehicles back on the streets, some with safety drivers inside. Hundreds of Baidu's robotaxis had been pulled from service because of the safety review. The March 31 incident involved dozens of Apollo Go robotaxis stalling on Wuhan roads, with some passengers stranded on a busy elevated road. Wuhan traffic police said at the time that a preliminary investigation showed the incident was caused by a system malfunction. Some local media reports cited industry insiders as saying the vehicles likely stalled after encountering unexpected situations that triggered a safety self-check mechanism. Shares of Chinese autonomous driving companies rose on the news. Baidu's Hong Kong-listed stock (9888.HK) gained 2.6%, Pony.ai (2026.HK) climbed 3.3%, and WeRide (800.HK) added 0.3% on July 23. Momenta (6880.HK) also traded higher after announcing its Shenzhen permit earlier in the week. The regulatory green light removes a key overhang for the sector. Before the freeze, China had been among the most aggressive markets globally for robotaxi deployment, with Baidu's Apollo Go operating the country's largest autonomous ride-hailing fleet. The resumption suggests regulators are satisfied with the industry's safety protocols after the review, though the gradual pace of license issuance indicates continued caution. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.