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Stellantis confirms 2026 guidance as turnaround lifts North America revenue
Edgen Stock·Jul 30 2026, 07:21Share to
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[1] Stellantis Confirms Guidance as Turnaround Efforts Progress (https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/stellan ...)[2] Stellantis Swings to Profit on Robust North America Shipments (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026- ...)[3] Ford: Special Dividend Is Possible - Multi-Year Recovery Gaining Traction (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4926862-ford ...)[4] Hugo Boss falls 10% as 2026 forecasts point to challenging year ahead; European markets end higher (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/europ ...)[5] Piper Sandler turns heads with bold Rivian stock prediction (https://www.aol.com/articles/piper-sandler-tu ...)
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Jul 30 2026, 08:20
Goldman Sachs warns of $249 billion downside asymmetry in August
The S&P 500 faces a deeply asymmetric risk profile in August, with Goldman Sachs estimating $249 billion of potential systematic selling on further declines versus $23 billion of buying on rallies. "The market is still walking through the ruins of a significant momentum and positioning unwind," Gail Hafif, Brian Garrett and Lee Coppersmith of Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage and flow team wrote in a July 29 note. "Before any meaningful re-risking, we need to navigate the debris of the past several weeks." Global gross leverage across Goldman's prime book sits at the 93rd percentile on a five-year basis and the 65th percentile on a one-year basis, indicating that despite recent de-grossing, institutional positioning remains crowded. Information technology saw its largest single-day long liquidation since September 2024 last week, registering a Z-score of minus 3.6. Systematic strategies currently hold about $196.3 billion in US equity long positions, at the 48th percentile on a three-year lookback, while CTA positioning sits at the 44th percentile. Goldman's quant models show that if the S&P 500 — which has already breached the firm's short-term trigger level of 7,453 — continues to slide, the resulting sell program would be more than 10 times larger than the buy program in an upside scenario. The warning comes as the S&P 500 fell 1.5% on July 29, the Nasdaq 100 entered a technical correction down 11% from its record, and the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.21%, the highest since 2007. With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.5% to 3.75% in a 9-3 vote that included three dissents favoring a hike, and Brent crude jumping 6% to $88 a barrel on renewed US-Iran hostilities, the cross-currents are compressing the window for risk-taking. Goldman's team recommended three specific hedges: a reverse dispersion trade betting on rising correlation, three-month put options on the Russell 2000, and short-dated option protection on the GSXURFAV retail-favorite stock basket. **Fund Flows Signal a Buyer Strike** Passive equity funds have absorbed a record $742 billion year-to-date, while active funds have shed $83 billion, according to Goldman's flow data. July alone saw $34 billion pour into US equity funds, the third-largest July inflow in more than two decades. But the team expects that momentum to cool sharply in August, which historically ranks alongside May as one of the worst months for equity fund flows. "Rising geopolitical concerns, energy price pressure and monetary policy uncertainty are setting the stage for a temporary buyer strike in August," the note said. Mutual funds tend to hold elevated cash ahead of midterm elections and deploy only after results are known, while foreign investors typically trim US equity exposure in the month before voting. The Goldman portfolio strategy team noted that US stocks historically trade sideways before midterms and rally into year-end, with volatility beginning a gradual climb in late summer and accelerating sharply in the month before Election Day. **Buybacks Offer the Most Reliable Support** One structural tailwind stands out: corporate share repurchases. About 31% of S&P 500 constituents by count are currently in an open buyback window, a figure the firm expects to rise to roughly 53% by next week and above 90% by mid-August as companies emerge from earnings blackout periods. Goldman described buyback demand as "the most supportive and reliable flow for US equities in August," providing a steady bid as the market digests the aftereffects of the deleveraging. **Corr1 Risk Is Rising** The report flagged a growing risk of a correlation-1 event — a scenario in which individual stocks and the index decline in near-unison, rendering single-stock diversification useless. The one-month implied correlation for the S&P 500 has ticked higher during the recent selloff, and the historically wide spread between single-stock volatility and index volatility is narrowing as single-stock vol retreats from elevated levels. "With macro uncertainty persisting and the market purging momentum enthusiasm, the probability of a Corr1 event is rising and has entered the radar of market participants," the team wrote. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 30 2026, 08:17
China resists major stimulus as growth nears 5% target floor
**China's top leaders declined to announce fresh stimulus at a key July 30 Politburo meeting, opting instead for incremental measures even as economic growth slipped near the bottom of Beijing's annual target.** China's top leaders showed little appetite for major stimulus in the second half, pledging only "pragmatic and effective new policies" after growth slipped near the bottom of the government's 5% target, according to a Xinhua readout of the July 30 Politburo meeting. "The government will plan to roll out pragmatic and effective new policies in a timely manner," the readout said, stopping short of the large-scale fiscal or monetary measures some investors had anticipated. The cautious stance comes as China's economy confronts mounting headwinds. The light-vehicle market is expected to remain flat in 2026, while the property sector continues to weigh on household wealth and local government finances. The Politburo's language echoed previous meetings where Beijing opted for targeted support rather than broad-based stimulus, reflecting a persistent preference for supply-side measures over demand-side injections. The absence of major stimulus leaves China's economy to rely on existing policy tools and gradual adjustments, a strategy that may keep growth near the lower end of the 5% target range. With trade tensions escalating and domestic demand still fragile, the burden falls on sector-specific measures to sustain momentum through year-end. The Politburo's decision reflects a persistent tension within Beijing between supporting near-term growth and avoiding the long-term costs of debt-fueled stimulus. Professor Ning Zhu of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, author of "China's Guaranteed Bubble," has argued that implicit state guarantees in China's financial system create moral hazard, making policymakers cautious about large-scale interventions that could reignite speculative behavior. Matthew Klein, co-author of "Trade Wars Are Class Wars," has noted that China's trade surplus and capital controls give it policy flexibility, but structural challenges including an aging population and slowing productivity growth limit the effectiveness of stimulus alone. China's economic slowdown has broad cross-asset implications. The country accounts for more than half of global copper demand and is the world's largest importer of iron ore, meaning any sustained deceleration in growth directly pressures commodity prices. For emerging-market currencies, a weaker yuan — whether driven by policy choice or market forces — creates competitive headwinds for export-dependent economies across Southeast Asia and Latin America. The property sector remains the most significant domestic drag. Home prices in China's 70 major cities have declined for more than two years, eroding household wealth and depressing consumer confidence. Local government finances, heavily dependent on land sales, remain under strain, limiting the fiscal capacity of provincial authorities to support growth independently of Beijing. On the trade front, China's post-pandemic export boom has faded as global demand softens and trading partners push back against what they view as overcapacity in Chinese manufacturing. Germany has mapped China's economic weaknesses in preparation for potential trade disputes, while the U.S. maintains elevated tariffs on Chinese goods. These external pressures add to the case for domestic stimulus, yet Beijing has chosen restraint. The next major policy signal will come from the People's Bank of China, which may adjust the loan prime rate or reserve requirement ratio in the coming months if economic data continues to soften. Markets will also watch for any additional fiscal measures from the State Council in the lead-up to the third-quarter GDP release. For now, Beijing's message is clear: incremental support, not a stimulus bazooka. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 30 2026, 07:58
AB InBev beats Q2 estimates as global brands drive 5.6% revenue growth
Anheuser-Busch InBev reported second-quarter revenue of $16.66 billion, up 5.6% organically, as global megabrand momentum and World Cup activation drove forecast-beating results. "Our performance this quarter reflects the strength of the beer category and the consistent execution of our strategy," Chief Executive Officer Michel Doukeris said. Normalized EBITDA rose 5.8% to $5.94 billion, topping the 4.6% growth analysts had expected in a company-compiled consensus. Underlying profit reached $2.39 billion, up from $1.95 billion a year earlier, while underlying EPS climbed 23.4% to $1.21. Beer volumes grew 1.1%, marking a second consecutive quarter of expansion after years of declines. Shares of the Leuven-based brewer have gained about 22% this year. The company maintained its medium-term outlook for EBITDA growth of 4% to 8% in fiscal 2026, signaling confidence that consumer demand will hold despite an uneven global recovery. The beat was broad-based. In the US, revenue increased 2.7% as Michelob Ultra, Busch Light and Busch Light Apple were the top three volume share gainers in the industry, according to Circana data. The brewer's Beyond Beer portfolio — led by Cutwater spirits — grew revenue in the mid-seventies, with Cutwater alone posting triple-digit growth and becoming the No. 1 share-gaining brand in total spirits. Latin America delivered the strongest performance. Brazil beer volumes rose 5%, with EBITDA jumping 16.1% on 230 basis points of margin expansion. Colombia posted record-high second-quarter volumes, with revenue up by high teens. Mexico volumes grew slightly and outperformed the industry, with EBITDA rising by high single digits. Europe posted low-single-digit volume growth, with Corona leading at mid-teens volume gains. South Africa revenue rose by mid-single digits, though volumes declined slightly. The Asia Pacific region was the weak spot: China volumes fell 9.7% because of adverse weather and continued weakness in the on-premise channel, dragging EBITDA down 16.1%. Korea and India posted double-digit growth but could not offset China's drag. The company's digital ecosystem continued to scale. BEES Marketplace gross merchandise value from third-party products surged 50% to $1.2 billion. Direct-to-consumer platforms Zé Delivery, TaDa Delivery and PerfectDraft served 13 million active consumers and generated $165 million in revenue, up 12%. AB InBev completed $1.9 billion of its $6 billion share buyback program as of July 24. Net debt to normalized EBITDA improved to 2.86x from 3.27x a year earlier, moving closer to the company's optimal target of around 2x. The results show the brewer's ability to navigate a dynamic consumer environment through premiumization and digital monetization. Investors will watch the second-half trajectory for China, where management is focused on improving execution and expanding in-home channel presence to rebuild momentum. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.