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SpaceX eyes billions in Pentagon AI computing deal, disrupting cloud market
Edgen Stock·Jul 17 2026, 22:09Share to
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[1] SpaceX身陷股价破发泥潭之际，向五角大楼兜售数十亿美元AI算力 (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777265 ...)[2] SpaceX stock sees brief Pentagon AI bump, while CoreWeave slides on pricing threat (https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/artic ...)[3] Musk's SpaceX in talks to supply the Pentagon with computing power, WSJ reports (https://www.aol.com/articles/musks-spacex-tal ...)[4] SpaceX in Talks to Provide Computing Power for Pentagon’s AI Push (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/spa ...)[5] SpaceX reportedly in talks to supply Pentagon with AI computing power worth billions (https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/cloud-co ...)
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Jul 17 2026, 22:09
Gold sentiment turns bearish as 79% of analysts predict further losses
Gold closed at $4,015.83 an ounce, down 1.8% for the week, after repeatedly testing the $4,000 support level. "Gold has failed to inspire and looks poised to challenge the year's low near $3,943," Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex, said. The metal opened the week at $4,108.18 an ounce before sliding to a weekly low of $3,959.37 on Friday. A brief rally to $4,122.63 on Monday faded after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data — up 0.2% in June — reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain restrictive policy. June CPI cooled to 3.5%, but the data failed to provide sustained support. A sustained break below $4,000 could trigger further selling toward $3,600, according to Bank of America technical analysts, while the seasonal pattern suggests gold typically bottoms in early August before resuming its uptrend. **Wall Street Turns Bearish** The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street overwhelmingly bearish on gold's near-term prospects. Of 14 analysts, 11 — or 79% — predicted further price declines, while one expected gains and two saw sideways trading. Main Street sentiment remained divided, with 40% of 169 retail investors looking for higher prices, 36% expecting declines, and 24% forecasting consolidation. "Unlikely to see a breakout to the upside until the sentiment clearly changes to a 'no-hikes' Federal Reserve," Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, said. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said he expects gold to decline toward $3,300 by September, citing a continuing downward trend that began with January's peaks. CPM Group issued a sell recommendation at $3,980 an ounce with a target of $3,820 and a stop loss at $4,090. **Oversold Signals Point to Potential Rebound** Despite the bearish sentiment, several indicators suggest the selloff may be reaching exhaustion. Paul Wong, managing partner at Sprott Inc., said gold is trading at minus two to three standard deviations oversold across multiple internal measures. "It means that it's harder and harder to push down the price of gold," Wong said. "The bulk of the selling is probably done." Jesse Colombo, independent precious metals analyst, noted that a triangle pattern has formed on the daily gold chart, with multiple failed attempts to push gold below $3,960. "That's a sign that buyers are coming in at these levels," Colombo said. "My hope is that the selloff is reaching exhaustion." Bank of America technical analyst Paul Ciana said gold's current correction remains disproportionately short relative to the preceding 121-week advance. While prices could test $3,600, he recommended investors consider averaging down to build positions, with accumulation below $4,000 and more aggressive buying in the $3,700 to $3,600 area. The next major catalyst for gold will be the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision on Thursday, followed by July's S&P Global Flash PMI data on Friday. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 17 2026, 22:07
Refining margins hit $59 a barrel, sending energy stocks up 80%
**The WTI 3-2-1 crack spread has nearly tripled since January, rewarding refiners while keeping gasoline prices elevated for consumers.** US refining margins surged to a record $59 a barrel on the WTI 3-2-1 crack spread, nearly tripling since January as global fuel shortages and geopolitical disruptions boosted profits for the nation's largest refiners. "The magnitude of this margin expansion is unprecedented in modern refining history," said Omar Tariq, energy analyst at Edgen. "Refiners are capturing spreads that were unthinkable 18 months ago." Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, and HF Sinclair have each gained more than 80% in 2026, far outpacing the S&P 500's 11% advance. Phillips 66 has climbed over 54%. The rally reflects not rising crude prices but the widening gap between what refiners pay for oil and what they receive for gasoline and diesel. The record margins stem from a severe shortage of global refining capacity compounded by the Iran War, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, and reduced fuel exports. While lower crude prices typically squeeze producer profits, they can actually boost refiner margins if gasoline and diesel remain expensive — a dynamic that has caught many investors off guard. ## The Anatomy of a Record Crack Spread The 3-2-1 crack spread estimates the gross margin a refinery earns by converting three barrels of crude into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of distillate fuel. At $59 a barrel, the spread sits well above the historical range that refiners typically enjoy. Bloomberg data shows the metric has nearly tripled since the start of 2026. The expansion is unusual because crude oil prices have not been the driver. West Texas Intermediate crude has fluctuated this year, recently pulling back after a truce between the US and Iran was signed — an agreement President Donald Trump declared "over" on July 8. Yet gasoline and diesel prices have remained elevated, sustaining the profitability tailwind for refiners. ## Stock Market Winners and What Comes Next Marathon Petroleum continues generating substantial cash flow through its large refining network and MPLX midstream partnership. Valero remains one of North America's lowest-cost operators. Phillips 66 offers additional exposure through chemicals and midstream assets. All share one common tailwind: elevated refining margins. History suggests crack spreads rarely stay elevated forever. As fuel supplies increase, refinery utilization rises, or crude prices rebound faster than gasoline and diesel, margins tend to normalize. Reuters has noted that today's extraordinary profitability could prove temporary as crude markets rebalance following recent supply disruptions. For investors, the key takeaway is straightforward: watch the crack spread, not the headline oil price. As long as the WTI 3-2-1 remains well above historical norms, companies like Marathon Petroleum, Valero, HF Sinclair, and Phillips 66 should continue generating robust cash flow. The last time refining margins approached these levels was in mid-2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when the crack spread briefly touched $55 before normalizing over the following quarters. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 17 2026, 21:42
Penguin Solutions closes $750M oversubscribed convertible notes offering
Penguin Solutions Inc. raised $750 million in zero-coupon convertible notes due 2031 in an oversubscribed offering, extending debt maturities and cutting interest costs as the AI infrastructure company refinances its balance sheet. "Investor demand for our oversubscribed convertible notes offering allowed us to secure highly favorable economic terms for Penguin in a transaction that we believe reflect investors' confidence in our strategy," said Kash Shaikh, chief executive officer at Penguin Solutions. The notes carry a 0.00% coupon with a 50% conversion premium and mature Aug. 1, 2031. Initial purchasers fully exercised a $100 million option. Concurrently, Penguin exchanged about $135.5 million of its 2.00% notes due 2029 and $160 million of its 2.00% notes due 2030 for cash and common stock. Capped call transactions with financial institutions prevent net dilution until the share price exceeds about $175.05, or roughly 125% above the closing price at pricing. The refinancing reduces Penguin's cash interest expense and provides strategic flexibility to invest in its AI Factory Platform growth strategy, the company said. Net proceeds will fund the capped calls, the cash portion of the exchanges and repayment of borrowings under its existing credit agreement. Penguin shares traded at $77.21, up 20.4% over the past 30 days, though the stock pulled back about 7% from its peak after the initial announcement. The company's memory segment, which now accounts for more than half of total revenue, more than doubled year over year to $275 million in the fiscal third quarter. Overall revenue rose 48% from a year earlier. Penguin's integrated memory products address a key bottleneck in AI inference workloads, where data throughput and latency constraints are driving demand for its CXL memory solutions, according to the company. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.