
Bank of America raised its Q2 earnings estimate for Alphabet to $8.38 a share, nearly three times the Street consensus of $2.90. "Alphabet is set to post a blockbuster second quarter driven by surging Cloud growth and a sharp jump in the value of its Anthropic stake," the Bank of America analyst team said in a note dated July 16. The bank projects second-quarter revenue of $102.1 billion, above the $101 billion consensus. Google Cloud revenue has emerged as the primary growth engine, with the segment backlog swelling to more than $460 billion in contracted forward revenue. Alphabet's stake in AI startup Anthropic has also appreciated sharply, adding a non-operating tailwind to the quarter. The estimate revision positions Alphabet for its fifth consecutive EPS beat. Shares traded at $370.92 as of July 15, and the BofA Buy rating implies the stock has room to run as Cloud monetization and AI adoption accelerate through the second half of 2026. The $8.38 EPS projection represents a roughly 189% premium to the $2.90 consensus, reflecting BofA's conviction that Cloud revenue is compounding faster than the broader business. Google Cloud generated $20 billion in Q1 2026, up 63% year over year, and the segment's contracted backlog nearly doubled quarter over quarter. Alphabet guided 2026 capital expenditure to $175 billion to $185 billion, a level that compressed Q1 free cash flow to $10.12 billion, down 46.63% year over year. The heavy spending shows management is betting that AI infrastructure investment will pay off through Cloud contract wins and Gemini monetization across Search and YouTube. The BofA call is among the most bullish on the Street. Analyst consensus on Alphabet stands at $431.72, with 89% of covering analysts rating the stock a Buy and zero Sell ratings among 64 analysts tracked. The estimate raise shows BofA expects Alphabet's AI investments to translate into accelerating earnings power. Investors will watch the Q2 earnings report, expected in late July, for Cloud segment margins and updated capital spending plans. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

The selloff in pre-revenue nuclear stocks is widening, with Oklo leading a 28% monthly decline that has erased nearly half the company's year-to-date value. Oklo Inc. shares fell 9.6% to $41.31 on Thursday, extending a month-long slide that has wiped 28% from the stock and 42% year to date, as investors rotate out of speculative nuclear developers. "The market is drawing a sharp line between pre-revenue reactor developers and profitable nuclear utilities," said Omar Tariq, energy analyst at Edgen. "Oklo and NuScale trade on milestones and sentiment, not earnings — and sentiment has shifted." NuScale Power Corp. has dropped 23% over the same period, while Uranium Energy Corp. fell 18% in the past month and another 5% Thursday to $9.56. The VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF, which counts Oklo as its second-largest holding at 6.37% behind Cameco Corp.'s 23.46% weighting, declined 16% for the month and 4.4% on the day to $39.10. The divergence tells the story: Constellation Energy Corp., which trades at 22 times earnings with $11.51 in EPS, fell just 2% over the past month. Vistra Corp. gained 5%. Oklo holds $275 million in cash but posted a $73.6 million net loss in fiscal 2024 and targets first commercial power no earlier than late 2027 — a timeline that leaves the stock exposed to sentiment swings with no revenue to anchor valuation. **Why Pre-Revenue Names Are Getting Hit Hardest** Oklo's slide has no single confirmed catalyst. The selloff reflects a broader de-rating of high-beta nuclear names as investors weigh missed milestone deadlines, regulatory uncertainty around NRC licensing, and insider selling — though those sales are frequently routine 10b5-1 plan transactions and not necessarily directional signals. The company's bull case rests on a 12-gigawatt agreement with Switch and a $25 million pre-payment from Equinix Inc., signaling data-center demand for nuclear-powered AI infrastructure. But with zero revenue and a consensus analyst price target of $86.95 — more than double the current $41 stock price — the gap between narrative and financial reality has widened. **Profitable Utilities Hold Their Ground** The contrast with Constellation and Vistra highlights the market's preference for cash flow over promises. Constellation reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $11 to $12, while Vistra reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and was recently upgraded to investment grade by Fitch Ratings. For investors seeking nuclear exposure without single-stock risk, the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF offers a diversified basket. But its 16% monthly decline shows that even broad-based funds are not immune to the sector's rotation. The nuclear trade is splitting into two distinct narratives. Profitable utilities with real earnings and hyperscaler power-purchase agreements are holding value. Pre-revenue developers like Oklo and NuScale remain high-conviction bets on a 2027-2028 payoff timeline — but with no earnings to absorb shocks, position sizing matters. The next catalyst for Oklo will be its NRC licensing update, which could either restore confidence or deepen the selloff. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Middle East oil producers are spending tens of billions of dollars on pipeline and port projects that could divert more than 60% of Persian Gulf crude exports away from the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2028. Oil producers across the Persian Gulf are accelerating seven pipeline projects and a new deepwater port to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to cut Tehran's leverage over a waterway that once carried 20% of the world's crude. "Right now, too much of the world's energy still moves through too few choke points. That is exactly why the UAE made the decision more than a decade ago to invest in infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz," Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, told the Atlantic Council in May. The UAE's West-East Pipeline is about 50% complete, with Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed ordering its completion by 2027. The 252-mile conduit will run parallel to the existing Fujairah pipeline and double the country's overland capacity to 3.6 million barrels a day. Iraq began construction in May on the 435-mile Basra-Haditha pipeline, allocating about $1.5 billion to carry 2.5 million barrels per day to connections with Jordan, Syria and Turkey. Saudi Arabia is in preliminary talks with neighbors to expand its East-West Petroline to 9 million barrels per day, according to people familiar with the matter. The infrastructure push reflects a strategic conviction that the decades-old assumption Gulf oil must pass through Hormuz is no longer acceptable. Before the US and Israel started the war on Feb. 28, about 20 million barrels of crude moved through the strait each day. Goldman Sachs estimates the new routes could reduce that to between 7 million and 9 million barrels, with more than 45% of Gulf exports bypassing the chokepoint by end-2027 and above 60% by end-2028. **Existing pipelines already at capacity** Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, stretching 1,200 kilometers from Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, is already operating at its full capacity of roughly 7 million barrels per day. The UAE's Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which carries as much as 1.8 million barrels per day from Habshan to Fujairah outside the strait, is also maxed out. Together, these existing routes provide about 8 million to 9 million barrels per day of bypass capacity — far short of the 17 million to 21 million barrels that typically transited through Hormuz before the conflict. The new projects represent more than engineering upgrades, according to Wall Street analysts. They amount to a strategic redesign of the region's energy export network intended to reduce the market disruption that occurs whenever tensions with Iran escalate. **Port plans and the Malacca risk** The UAE is also planning a new port and container terminal on the Arabian Sea side of the strait to allow more goods into the region without transiting the waterway, the Financial Times reported. The facility would rival the country's flagship Jebel Ali hub and further reduce dependence on the strait. The push comes as Iran has threatened to impose tolls on the strait that could cost tens of billions of dollars, and in some cases is extracting millions of dollars in protection money per oil tanker. Tehran struck three commercial vessels in the strait on Tuesday that were using an alternative route near Oman's coast, according to reports. The precedent has energy investors watching another critical maritime checkpoint: the Strait of Malacca. More than 94,000 vessels traverse the 900-kilometer waterway annually, moving up to 30% of globally traded goods and nearly half of the world's seaborne oil. If transit fees are normalized in the Middle East, states surrounding Malacca may see an opportunity to follow suit, analysts warn. **Limits of the bypass strategy** Despite the acceleration, the Middle East will not be able to completely eliminate Iran's leverage. Some of the new pipeline routes depend on stability in the Red Sea, which has been threatened in recent weeks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen who have warned of attacking the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Cross-border agreements and security guarantees remain difficult to secure, and the projects require tens of billions of dollars in investment. "The last time a comparable infrastructure shift was attempted in the region, political disputes delayed the Iraq-Turkey pipeline for years," said Alexandra Paulus, an analyst at Goldman Sachs. The bank has identified seven major pipeline projects that are planned, under construction or being expanded across the Gulf. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.