Russia's Kyiv barrage kills 9, destroys first US-owned drone plant

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[1] Russia launches massive attack on Ukraine, destroying an American company's drone factory! Russian side: using land-based, sea-based long-range precision weapons and drones! Trump: Has not yet agreed to authorize Ukraine to produce "Patriot" missiles (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778492 ...)[2] Photos show Russian missile and drone attack on Ukrainian capital Kyiv (https://www.chron.com/news/world/article/phot ...)[3] Russia hits Ukrainian capital with ballistic missiles and drones, killing at least 9 (https://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/world ...)[4] Russian missile strike on Kyiv kills nine, leaves many injured - UPDATED - 1 (https://en.apa.az/europe/russian-missile-stri ...)

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Aug 01 2026, 11:47

Fertilizer stocks rally 40% on Hormuz closure as China risk looms

Nitrogen fertilizer prices rose 40-50% and phosphate 20-30% after Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending fertilizer stocks higher as investors bet on scarcity. "The Middle East is so central. Twenty percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz," Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, said. "It turns out it's not just an energy crisis — it also involves helium, fertilizer, the products that will not be made because of the crisis, and agriculture." About 30% of global fertilizer trade transits the strait, including close to 40% of urea, 30% of ammonia, 26% of diammonium phosphate, 13% of monoammonium phosphate and up to 50% of sulfur, according to the American Enterprise Institute. Sulfuric acid is essential for making phosphoric acid, the key component of phosphate fertilizers, while ammonia feeds nitrogen fertilizer production. The overlooked risk is China. Beijing cut crude imports by about 5 million barrels a day, drawing on an estimated 1.5 billion to 2 billion barrels of strategic stocks, Yergin said. A similar pullback in fertilizer demand would blunt the price gains that have lifted fertilizer producers. ## China's Demand Cut Is the Swing Factor China's crude demand ran around 16 million to 17 million barrels a day before the war, with imports near 12 million barrels daily. The reduction relieved pressure that might otherwise have pushed oil to $150-$200 a barrel, Yergin said. Fertilizer demand tracks the same agricultural cycle, and a Chinese slowdown would ripple through urea and phosphate markets that depend on Asian buyers. ## Supply Shock Hits Farmers From Nigeria to the US The price surge is already squeezing food systems. Nigeria, which imports refined fuel, potash and phosphate, faces rising transport and production costs that threaten to reverse recent declines in food inflation, according to AEI. In the United States, about 70% of the cost of food on the table is energy costs, from fertilizer to diesel to transport, Yergin said. Brent crude peaked above $138 a barrel after tanker traffic through Hormuz fell 70%, before settling near $100. The International Energy Agency coordinated a 400-million-barrel emergency release in March, the largest in its history, but it failed to keep prices below $100 because the physical supply gap was too large. Fertilizer producers have captured the windfall. Exxon Mobil's second-quarter profit doubled to $14.53 billion on record diesel production, while Chevron's nearly quadrupled to $12.07 billion. Six of Europe's largest oil companies posted combined first-quarter profits of $22 billion, up more than 40% from a year earlier. The next catalyst is the northern hemisphere planting season, when fertilizer demand peaks. If China's import cuts persist, the supply shock that lifted fertilizer stocks could reverse as demand falters. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Aug 01 2026, 11:18

OPEC+ to lift quotas 188,000 bpd as Iran war blocks exports

OPEC+ ministers meet Sunday to approve a sixth consecutive monthly output increase of about 188,000 barrels per day, but export bottlenecks from the Iran war mean the extra barrels may never reach buyers. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman are expected to raise their combined September target when the group convenes on Aug. 2, according to sources familiar with the discussions. The International Energy Agency projects a substantial crude surplus if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, but the agency's outlook assumes shipping lanes reopen — a scenario that remains uncertain as the conflict continues to spread. The IEA's baseline forecast does not account for the possibility that damaged Middle East infrastructure stays offline into 2027. The September increase would complete the return of a 1.65-million-bpd voluntary cut agreed in 2023, adjusted for the UAE's departure from OPEC in May. Another 2 million bpd of group-wide cuts remain in place through the end of 2026. Strait of Hormuz transits have fallen to about 10 per day from roughly 150 before the conflict, according to the Strait of Hormuz tracker, cutting off about one-third of global seaborne crude flows. The disconnect between announced targets and actual supply has widened as the conflict has spread. Iraq remains limited by export bottlenecks. Kazakhstan has reduced production after attacks disrupted Black Sea loadings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal. Russia is dealing with refinery and terminal outages. The Iran war has reduced exports from several Middle Eastern members and cut deeply into the group's effective spare capacity. **Quotas vs. barrels** The gap between what OPEC+ announces and what it actually ships has become the central tension in the oil market. The group has spent months raising targets while actual output fell. The increases gave members permission to restore supply whenever wells, pipelines, ports and shipping lanes allowed it — but permission was the easy part. The damage extends beyond crude. Roughly 6 million tons of Middle East polyethylene capacity, or 20 to 25 percent of regional supply, sustained damage from the conflict and will not restart until at least 2027, according to LyondellBasell's second-quarter earnings call. That compounds the supply problem for refined products and petrochemicals even after shipping lanes reopen. The Red Sea has emerged as a second front. Yemen's Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles at the Saudi oil tanker NCC Ghazal, declaring a blockade on Saudi ships in retaliation for Riyadh's blockade of Yemen. Tankers scheduled to load at the CPC terminal in the Black Sea also headed away from the region after a vessel was hit during loading, according to ICIS data. The market impact has been broad. Canada's goods trade surplus jumped 55 percent to a 15-month high of C$2.72 billion in April as crude prices pushed up by the Iran war lifted energy exports 9.7 percent, Statistics Canada reported. Energy products now account for a growing share of Canadian exports, with crude oil shipments rising 7 percent in April alone. The last time OPEC+ faced a similar gap between quotas and actual output was during the 2020 pandemic, when compliance rates collapsed and the group spent months rebuilding credibility. This time, the gap is driven by war rather than demand destruction, making the path to normalization harder to predict. For oil markets, the practical effect is that Brent crude prices are likely to remain elevated even as the group formally increases supply. The widening gap between announced quotas and actual exports means the market will continue to price in a risk premium until shipping lanes reopen and damaged infrastructure is repaired. OPEC+ will need to decide in the coming months whether to extend the pause on quota increases through year-end or begin the harder conversation about 2027 baselines, when new production capacity assessments take effect. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Aug 01 2026, 10:50

Rocket Lab's $8B Iridium Deal Paves Path to 2027 Profitability

Rocket Lab's $8 billion acquisition of Iridium Communications is projected to make the combined company profitable in 2027, with analysts forecasting $137 million in net income and $425 million in free cash flow. The deal, announced June 29, values Iridium at $54 per share — a 14 percent premium to its current trading price — with half paid in cash and half in stock via a collar-protected exchange ratio. "The Iridium acquisition is a significant accelerant for Rocket Lab's push into higher-value space applications," said Trevor Walsh, analyst at Citizens, which raised its price target to $130. Over the last 12 months, Rocket Lab posted $183 million in GAAP losses and burned $316 million in free cash flow, while Iridium earned $93 million and generated $288 million in positive free cash flow. The combined entity would generate per-share earnings of approximately $0.20, marking the first GAAP profit in Rocket Lab's history. The transaction, expected to close mid-2027, transforms Rocket Lab from a pure launch provider into a vertically integrated space company operating its own satellite constellation — a direct challenge to SpaceX's Starlink dominance. ## Combined 2027 Earnings Projected at $137 Million According to S&P Global Market Intelligence consensus estimates, Rocket Lab's GAAP losses are projected to shrink to $24 million in 2027, with free cash flow turning positive at $44 million. Iridium is forecast to earn $161 million in 2027, up 56 percent year over year, and generate $381 million in free cash flow, up 32 percent. Combined, that implies $137 million in net income and $425 million in free cash flow. Rocket Lab will issue approximately 74.1 million new shares for the stock portion of the deal, bringing its total share count from 598.2 million to roughly 672.3 million. At the current price of $64.95, the company's market capitalization stands at $39 billion, down nearly 60 percent from its 52-week high of $151. Wall Street remains bullish despite the drawdown. Bank of America raised its target to $115 after the U.S. Space Force contract award, Roth Capital and Citizens both moved to $130, and New Street Research initiated coverage with a Street-high $150 target. The average analyst price target sits at approximately $114, implying upside of roughly 79 percent from current levels. ## Iridium's 66-Satellite Network Opens New Markets The acquisition gives Rocket Lab more than just financial lift. Iridium operates a constellation of 66 low-Earth-orbit satellites providing direct-to-device communications, positioning, navigation and timing services, and Internet of Things connectivity — markets where SpaceX has limited presence. Rocket Lab CEO Peter Beck has long sought a "Starlink-like" business to complement the launch side. The Iridium deal delivers that, creating a fully vertically integrated space company that builds satellite components, assembles satellites, launches them on its Electron and upcoming Neutron rockets, and operates them as a commercial service. The Neutron rocket, targeted for first flight in the fourth quarter of 2026, already has five commercial missions booked despite not having flown. Rocket Lab closed 2025 with $602 million in revenue and entered the first quarter of 2026 with a backlog exceeding $2 billion. The stock's recent volatility stems largely from the deal's collar mechanism, which has created uncertainty around dilution and financing as Rocket Lab's share price fell. With annualized volatility approaching 98 percent, the market has struggled to price the transaction. But the underlying fundamentals — a record $266 million U.S. Space Force contract, a $2 billion backlog, and an acquisition that should be accretive — suggest the current discount may be more about deal mechanics than business health. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.