PBOC nudges yuan fixing to 6.7906 as economic headwinds deepen

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[1] PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7906 vs. 6.7933 previous (https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pboc-sets-usd-c ...)[2] China’s crisis deepens: 48 million unemployed (https://www.dailymirror.lk/international/Chin ...)[3] Ukraine’s attack being repelled in Sevastopol, four drones shot down (https://tass.com/politics/2163869 ...)[4] EU may allow Greece to continue transporting Russian LNG — FT (https://tass.com/world/2163863 ...)[5] FACTBOX: Latest update on Russia's strikes on Ukrainian ports (https://tass.com/defense/2163377 ...)

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Jul 23 2026, 03:11

Gold bounces to $4,072 as Iran escalation reignites safe-haven bid

Gold bounced to $4,072 an ounce Tuesday, reclaiming the $4,000 handle as a tenth consecutive day of US strikes on Iran and a Houthi maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia pumped a fresh safe-haven premium into the metal. "The Iran escalation is rebuilding the exact fear premium that drained out during the early-July ceasefire and helped trigger the crash," according to an Investing.com analysis published Tuesday. "The metal is trapped between a structural floor from central-bank buying near 1,000 tonnes annually and a ceiling from real yields pushing toward 4.9%." The bounce carried bullion to an intraday high of $4,084.13 after testing $3,999.83 at the lows, a range that captured the tug-of-war between geopolitical fear and rising yields. The 30-year Treasury yield is pushing toward 4.902% and the 10-year sits at 4.59%, while the dollar firmed on safe-haven flows that also supported gold — a dynamic that limited Tuesday's advance. Gold futures tracked the move, printing $4,070.40, up 1.36%. The $4,000 level now decides the next leg. Hold above it, and the base builds toward a run at the $4,205 pivot. Lose it, and the $3,942 nine-month low comes back into play. The July 29 Federal Reserve meeting, where markets price an 85.6% probability of rates held at 3.50%-3.75%, is the event that will determine whether the safe-haven bid can break the yield wall. ## The $1,660 Crash That Reset the Market Gold printed an all-time high of $5,602.225 on Jan. 29, the culmination of a historic run. From that peak, the metal cratered 27.7% to an eight-month low of $3,942, delivering the worst quarter for gold in 13 years. A $1,660 drop from the January peak erased more than a year of gains and left the metal down 7.27% year to date, even as it holds a 17.23% gain measured against a year ago. The drivers of the crash were mutually reinforcing. Real yields ground higher as the Fed held rates elevated and inflation expectations moderated, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal. The dollar firmed. And critically, the early-July US-Iran ceasefire drained the safe-haven premium that had inflated gold during the conflict's peak. When fear left the market, speculative length evaporated and the price fell through support after support. The 52-week range tells the story in two numbers: $3,268.12 at the bottom and $5,602.23 at the top. Gold has traveled the entire span within twelve months, a volatility profile that looks nothing like the slow-grinding store of value it is supposed to be. The reset flushed excess speculation, which is constructive — a market that has already purged its weak hands has less downside fuel. But the same forces that drove the crash, elevated yields and a firm dollar, remain in place. The ETF exodus deepened the selloff. Physically-backed funds registered net outflows of $8.9 billion in June alongside a 74-tonne decline in holdings, dragging total holdings down to near 4,047 tonnes. That mechanical selling compounded the crash from $5,602, turning a correction into a rout as ETF liquidations fed on themselves. Central banks were buying through the crash — China has increased its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months — but the paper market was in full retreat. ## The Iran Escalation and the Yield Wall The single force driving Tuesday's bounce is the return of geopolitical fear. US strikes on Iran entered a tenth consecutive day, and the President warned Iran would be held responsible for the deaths of three US service members. Iran-backed Houthi militants announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, threatening energy shipments through the Red Sea and opening a new front that endangers global trade. Crude touched $90 a barrel on the escalation, feeding inflation fears that cut both ways for gold — supporting it as a hedge while also supporting the dollar and yields that cap it. If the Iran war is gold's tailwind, rising real yields are its immovable headwind. The 30-year Treasury yield pushing toward 4.902% means the opportunity cost of parking capital in bullion is punishing. A slightly stronger dollar compounds the problem, making the metal more expensive for foreign buyers. The flow evidence confirms the dynamic: a stronger dollar, still-elevated yields, and lingering geopolitical worries helped steer flows into cash and short-term bonds, limiting gold's upside. The desk is choosing yielding safe havens over the non-yielding metal. ## The Fed Decision That Breaks the Trap Everything converges on the July 29 Federal Reserve meeting, and the setup is not favorable for gold. The market assigns an 85.6% probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, a near-lock that keeps borrowing costs elevated and the opportunity cost of holding gold high. The tail risk is asymmetric: with inflation fears reignited by the oil spike, the small probability of a surprise move leans toward tightening, which would be outright bearish for bullion. The last time gold faced a comparable setup — a 27%-plus drawdown from a record high with real yields above 4.5% — was in 2013, when the metal fell 28% over the year as the Fed prepared to taper. The difference this time is central-bank buying. Sovereign accumulation running near 1,000 tonnes annually, led by China's 20-month consecutive buying streak, provides a structural floor that did not exist in 2013. That floor is why gold bounced off $3,942 rather than cratering through it. The best realistic outcome for gold from July 29 is a dovish hold — a pause paired with language acknowledging growth risks and opening the door to future cuts. That would pull real yields lower at the margin and let the safe-haven bid run. The worst outcome is a hawkish hold that emphasizes the inflation threat from oil and keeps the door to hikes ajar, which would send yields higher and gold lower. The metal is waiting on the Fed, and the odds favor the hawks. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*

Jul 23 2026, 03:08

Oatly jumps 19% as Q2 revenue beats, lifts 2026 sales outlook

Oatly Group AB reported Q2 revenue of $240.1 million, up 15%, and raised its full-year sales growth outlook. "Our second quarter results reflect the disciplined execution of our strategy including improvements to the mix of channels, customers, and products," Chief Executive Officer Jean-Christophe Flatin said. Revenue climbed 15.2% to $240.1 million from $208.4 million a year earlier, or 12.7% on a constant-currency basis. Gross profit rose 20% to $81.4 million, with margin expanding 143 basis points to 33.9%. The net loss narrowed to $31.3 million from $55.9 million. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $0.4 million, compared with a loss of $3.6 million in the year-ago period. The Swedish oat-drink maker now expects constant-currency revenue growth of 8% to 10% for 2026, up from a prior forecast of 3% to 5%. Management maintained its adjusted EBITDA target of $25 million to $35 million, citing higher costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East. Europe and International, Oatly's largest segment, posted revenue of $143.1 million, up 21% as reported and 18% in constant currency, driven by 16.9% volume growth in Barista products. North America revenue rose 5.9% to $66.9 million, with retail channel gains lifting volume 1.9%. Greater China revenue increased 11.6% to $30.1 million, though foodservice sales declined amid heightened competition. Chief Operating Officer Daniel Ordonez said oat milk sales are growing faster than other plant-based milks and Oatly is gaining market share. New flavors and beverage formats are attracting younger consumers through live events and digital marketing, he said. The guidance raise signals management expects demand momentum to continue across its core markets. Investors will watch the Q3 earnings report for further margin progression and an update on the strategic review of Oatly's Greater China business, which the company expects to complete within 2026. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Jul 23 2026, 03:01

CLSA backs Tencent at HKD740 despite US AI scrutiny fears

**Washington's threat to sanction Chinese AI companies over intellectual property theft has weighed on Tencent shares, though CLSA sees the selloff as a buying opportunity.** Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) rose 1.5% after dropping the prior session as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatened sanctions against Chinese AI companies over intellectual property theft. The stock recovered some ground even as Bessent said the US would closely scrutinize open-source AI models from China. "We've seen a lot of talk about open source models coming and threatening the large language models in the US," Bessent said in a Fox Business interview. "This administration supports open source models, but what we do not support is IP theft. If we see, especially, that overseas models are stealing from our great companies, we have the ability to sanction them." CLSA reiterated its High Conviction Outperform rating on Tencent with a target price of HK$740, arguing the company's proprietary AI models have moved beyond the distillation techniques drawing US scrutiny. The broker noted Tencent's Hy3 model, with 295 billion parameters, outperforms rival GLM 5.1 at half the model size and cost. Tencent and Alibaba Group (9988.HK) remain core holdings for most global funds, CLSA said, though recent capital rotation into memory and hardware stocks may pressure share prices near term. The US and China are scheduled to hold their first bilateral AI talks in September, with Bessent expected to lead the US delegation. The discussions come as Chinese President Xi Jinping last week called for open-source AI cooperation, pushing back against what Beijing views as Washington's overextension of national security concerns in the technology sector. Bessent said watermarks of American large language models had been found on many Chinese AI offerings, adding that the administration would investigate in the coming days or weeks. The comments follow accusations by Anthropic and OpenAI that Chinese AI labs including DeepSeek and Moonshot used unauthorized distillation to copy US capabilities. Hugging Face Chief Executive Clem Delangue has pushed back, saying distillation is common practice globally and that Chinese research teams have produced strong models through open collaboration. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.