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Lemonade revenue jumps 79% as path to profitability narrows
Edgen Stock·Jul 29 2026, 13:26Share to
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[1] Lemonade Q2 Earnings Call Highlights (https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/lem ...)[2] Lemonade (LMND) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/arti ...)[3] Earnings Calendar and Analysis for This Week (July 27-31) (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/arti ...)[4] Mondelēz International Reports Q2 2026 Results (https://ir.mondelezinternational.com/news-rel ...)
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Jul 29 2026, 14:47
US Q2 GDP seen at 2.8% as Iran war clouds inflation outlook
**The US economy likely expanded at a solid 2.8% annualized rate in the second quarter, but the headline figure masks a surge in inflation tied to the Iran conflict that could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy path.** The Commerce Department's advance GDP report, due for release Tuesday, is expected to show the economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the three months through June, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would mark a deceleration from the 3.4% rate in the first quarter but still represent above-trend growth for the world's largest economy. "The underlying composition matters more than the top-line number this quarter because the Iran-related energy shock is distorting both growth and inflation channels," said James Okafor, macro analyst at Edgen. "The Fed is looking at a situation where the economy is running hot while supply-side disruptions from the conflict push prices higher — the worst possible combination for rate-setters." The GDP report arrives against a backdrop of elevated geopolitical risk. Oil prices have climbed more than 15% since the start of the second quarter after Iran-linked disruptions to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about a fifth of global petroleum consumption. The energy price spike has fed through to broader price measures, with the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — expected to show core inflation running near 3.5% in the second quarter, well above the central bank's 2% target. The cross-currents create a dilemma for Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues. Strong GDP growth argues against rate cuts, while the conflict-driven inflation spike — unlike demand-pull inflation — cannot be addressed by tightening monetary policy without risking unnecessary damage to the labor market. The fed funds rate has sat at 5.25% to 5.5% since July 2023, and OIS markets currently price less than a 40% probability of a cut at the September meeting, down from about 65% before the Iran escalation began in April. Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of US economic activity, likely remained the primary growth engine in the second quarter, supported by a still-tight labor market. Nonfarm payrolls averaged 218,000 per month over the three months through May, above the 150,000 to 200,000 range that many economists estimate as the breakeven rate for stable unemployment. Business investment in structures and equipment also contributed, though residential investment likely pulled back as mortgage rates hovered near 7%. The GDP report's price indexes will receive as much scrutiny as the growth figure. The headline PCE deflator for the quarter is expected to show an annualized increase of around 3.8%, while the core measure — excluding food and energy — may come in near 3.5%. Both would represent an acceleration from the first quarter's 3.4% and 3.2% readings, respectively, driven almost entirely by the energy channel. The last time the US faced a comparable combination of above-trend growth and conflict-driven inflation was during the 1990-1991 Gulf War, when oil prices doubled and the economy slipped into recession shortly after. The current situation differs in that the labor market is significantly tighter and household balance sheets are stronger, but the stagflationary undertones are drawing comparisons among some economists. Looking ahead, the trajectory of both growth and inflation will depend heavily on the duration and intensity of the Iran conflict. If shipping disruptions persist into the third quarter, the energy-driven inflation impulse could keep the Fed on hold through year-end. A de-escalation, by contrast, would likely see inflation recede quickly as oil prices normalize, potentially opening the door for rate cuts in the fourth quarter. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 29 2026, 14:39
VIX opens with 6.69% gap lower as volatility expectations ease
The VIX fell 6.69% to open at 18.27 on July 29, extending a decline in Wall Street's primary fear gauge. The opening gap in the CBOE Volatility Index signaled a sharp reduction in expected equity market turbulence. Traders pointed to easing macro concerns and a rally in U.S. equity futures as the primary drivers behind the move. The VIX traded between 18.05 and 19.82 during the session before closing at 19.58, recovering some of the early losses. A reading below 20 typically indicates moderate volatility expectations, with the index now sitting near the lower end of its recent range. The session range of nearly 1.8 points reflected intraday uncertainty even as the overall direction remained lower. The decline suggests options traders are pricing in a calmer outlook for U.S. equities, though the VIX remains above the 15 threshold that would signal market complacency. The direction of volatility in the coming weeks will depend on incoming economic data and central bank policy signals. A sustained move below 18 would mark the lowest volatility regime since early July, potentially fueling further equity inflows. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 29 2026, 14:32
X settles 2-year advertiser lawsuit, clearing path to ad recovery
**Elon Musk's X resolved its long-running legal battle with advertisers, removing a key obstacle to rebuilding the platform's ad business.** Elon Musk's X reached a settlement with advertisers on July 29, ending a 2-year legal dispute that had cast uncertainty over the platform's ability to restore its ad revenue stream. The settlement, first reported by the Financial Times, resolves claims that major brands and their agencies coordinated a pullback in ad spending on X following Musk's $44 billion acquisition in October 2022. Terms were not disclosed. The lawsuit, filed in 2024, alleged that advertisers including some of the world's largest consumer brands violated antitrust laws by collectively reducing their spending on the platform. X had argued the coordinated pullback cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue. The case had been closely watched as a bellwether for platform-advertiser relations in the social media industry. For X, the settlement removes a legal overhang that had complicated efforts to rebuild advertiser relationships. The platform's ad revenue has fallen sharply since Musk's takeover, with many brands reducing spending amid concerns about content moderation and brand safety. A resolution could help X stabilize its core business and support its valuation, which has declined significantly from the $44 billion purchase price. The legal battle began after Musk accused advertisers of using their market power to pressure X into maintaining certain content policies. The World Federation of Advertisers and several major holding companies were named in the suit, which sought damages for what X described as an unlawful boycott. Advertisers had argued their spending decisions were independent business choices, not coordinated action. The settlement comes as X has been working to diversify its revenue beyond advertising, introducing subscription products including X Premium and exploring payments and AI services through Musk's xAI venture. Still, advertising remains the platform's primary revenue source, and restoring brand confidence is critical to its financial outlook. X's ad revenue was estimated at roughly $2.5 billion in 2025, down from more than $4 billion before Musk's takeover, according to industry estimates. For Musk, the resolution removes one of several legal distractions facing his companies. The Tesla and SpaceX chief executive has been involved in multiple lawsuits related to his acquisition of X, his compensation at Tesla, and his public statements. A settlement could also improve X's standing with regulators examining platform accountability and advertiser practices, including the Federal Trade Commission and the European Commission. The case had been scheduled for trial later this year. With the settlement, both sides avoid a potentially lengthy and public courtroom battle that could have revealed internal communications about advertiser strategies on social media platforms. The resolution also spares advertisers the risk of damaging disclosures about how brands decide where to place their marketing budgets. The broader implications extend beyond X. The case tested whether advertisers could be held liable under antitrust law for collectively reducing spending on a platform over content concerns. A trial could have set a precedent for how brands navigate content moderation disputes across social media. With the settlement, that question remains unresolved, leaving both platforms and advertisers in a state of legal uncertainty about the boundaries of coordinated action. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.