

**Kevin Warsh kept borrowing costs unchanged but offered markets no roadmap for how the Fed will finally tame inflation.** The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent for a fifth straight meeting Wednesday, with Chair Kevin Warsh declaring the central bank "will not waver" on restoring price stability after more than five years of above-target inflation. "We have begun a new chapter, and we understand that the five-plus years of inflation above target cannot be cured in nine weeks, or by a single month of modest price decreases," Warsh told reporters. "This Fed will not waver. Our credibility rests on performing our duties and delivering on our responsibilities." The 10-3 vote masked deepening divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee. Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed and Lorie Logan of the Dallas Fed dissented for a third straight meeting, each preferring a quarter-point increase. The same three officials dissented at Jerome Powell's final meeting in April, then in favor of removing the implied promise of lower rates. Overnight index swaps had priced roughly a 35 percent probability of a hike heading into the decision, while CME FedWatch data shows 76 percent of traders now expect a rate increase by the September meeting. By abandoning forward guidance — a hallmark of his predecessors — Warsh has left markets to price policy paths without central bank cues. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swung 744 points lower before paring losses to close down 542 points, or 1 percent. The S&P 500 reversed an initial decline to gain 0.2 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5 percent. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed 4 basis points to 4.65 percent, extending a move higher that Warsh said he welcomed. Warsh said the Fed under his watch is "not in the forecasting business" and will not provide hints about the future path of rates, a sharp break from the communication strategy employed by Powell and Janet Yellen. "We're trying not to interfere with that market signal," he said. "Market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee." The new chair's approach has injected a degree of unpredictability into Fed meetings not seen in years. Bank of America strategists found the central bank has never delivered a rate hike with market-implied odds below 60 percent since at least 1994 — yet Warsh came within three votes of doing so with swaps pricing at roughly 35 percent. Citadel Securities and PGIM had assigned a higher probability of a hike this week, betting Warsh would use the opportunity to establish his inflation-fighting credibility. **Rate Differentials Widen as AI Investment Complicates the Outlook** Warsh acknowledged that the surge in artificial intelligence-related capital expenditure is making it harder for the Fed to judge the balance between supply and demand. Data center construction is lifting wages for construction workers, adding to broader price pressures even as productivity growth remains strong. "My lens is broader than PCE," Warsh said, referring to the personal consumption expenditures price index that serves as the Fed's official inflation benchmark. The last time the Fed faced this level of internal dissent over the policy path was in 2023, when a divided committee ultimately delivered 11 rate hikes before pausing. Since then, the fed funds rate has remained unchanged for five consecutive meetings — the longest hold since the tightening cycle ended — while inflation has stayed stubbornly above the 2 percent target. Warsh said he will check in with the five policy task forces he created last month over the coming weeks, and their findings may inform his keynote address at the Jackson Hole symposium later this month. That speech, he said, remains "a blank piece of paper." For now, the Fed's next policy decision on Sept. 16 looms as a critical test. If oil prices — which jumped more than 6 percent Wednesday after airstrikes resumed in the Middle East — remain elevated, the case for a hike will strengthen. "The bottom line, from a market point of view, is if oil prices remain elevated in September, the Fed will conclude the oil shock has lasted long enough to demand a rate hike, or hikes," said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Robinhood reported record Q2 revenue of $1.31B, beating estimates, as event contracts surged more than 10x to $156M. "The business is firing on all cylinders. We delivered record revenues and drove new highs across equity, option, and event contract volumes," Shiv Verma, chief financial officer of Robinhood, said. Transaction-based revenue rose 44% to $776M. Options contributed $342M, up 29%, while equities revenue nearly doubled to $129M. Crypto revenue slid to $100M, down 38% from a year earlier, though it topped the $86.6 million analyst consensus. Adjusted EBITDA reached $741M, exceeding the $628.9 million estimate. GAAP diluted EPS of $0.62 included $0.14 of gains tied to the deconsolidation of Robinhood Ventures Fund I; adjusted EPS was $0.48, above the $0.43 consensus. | Metric | Actual | Consensus | Beat/Miss | |--------|--------|-----------|-----------| | Revenue | $1.31B | $1.28B | +2.3% | | Adj. EBITDA | $741M | $628.9M | +17.8% | | Crypto Revenue | $100M | $86.6M | +15.5% | | Adj. EPS | $0.48 | $0.43 | +$0.05 | The results show Robinhood's transformation from a crypto-trading story into a multi-product platform. Crypto now supplies less than 8% of total net revenue, down from being a headline growth driver two years ago. The company lowered its 2026 adjusted operating expense outlook to a range of $2.675B to $2.775B, below the $2.95 billion analysts had expected. Funded customers reached 28.4 million, and Robinhood Gold subscribers hit a record 4.8 million. Net deposits totaled $21.7 billion, up from $17.7 billion a year ago. Platform assets grew to $369 billion from $307 billion. The Gold Card crossed 1 million cardholders with $17 billion in annualized purchase volume. Robinhood is expanding its crypto footprint despite the revenue decline. The quarter brought the public mainnet launch of Robinhood Chain, an Ethereum Layer 2 for tokenized real-world assets. The company debuted Robinhood Earn, its first onchain lending product, rolled out stock tokens across more than 120 countries, and closed the WonderFi acquisition in Canada. Perpetual futures went live in the European Union, and the company flagged plans for a crypto offering in the United Kingdom. Robinhood also launched Rothera, a CFTC-licensed prediction markets exchange run as a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. The stock fell 3.15% to $89.84 in regular trading and slipped further to $87.00 after hours, even as the company beat on every major metric. The muted reaction may reflect the $0.14 per share of one-time gains in reported EPS. Coinbase and Strategy are scheduled to report results Thursday, offering a broader read on crypto-sector earnings. The guidance cut on expenses suggests management expects operating leverage to improve even as crypto revenue remains under pressure. Investors will watch the Q3 earnings call for updates on Robinhood Chain adoption and whether event contract volumes can sustain their growth trajectory. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

The Fed's decision to scrap forward guidance after Wednesday's rate decision has left bond traders without directional cues, pushing 10-year Treasury yields through a 15-basis-point range in a single session. "The market can find almost no clues to go on," Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said on Bloomberg Television. "What today's decision is based on is also a bit difficult to fathom." The yield on the 10-year note swung more than 15 basis points Wednesday, while the 2-year yield moved in a similarly wide band. The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks Treasury volatility, climbed to its highest level since the regional banking crisis of March 2023. The fed funds rate has been held at 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent since July 2023, and OIS markets now price a 62 percent probability of a hold at the next meeting in September, according to CME FedWatch data. The loss of the Fed's communication anchor threatens to magnify rate-sensitive asset swings across equities, credit and currencies. With no forward guidance to anchor expectations, each data release — from next week's nonfarm payrolls to the August CPI print on Sept. 11 — carries outsized potential to jolt markets. The last time the Fed used similarly opaque language was in the months before the 2019 rate-cutting cycle, when then-Chair Jerome Powell described the policy stance as "mid-cycle adjustment." That period saw the 10-year yield fall more than 100 basis points over three months as markets struggled to interpret the Fed's intent. For bond investors, the implications extend beyond day-to-day trading. The "yo-yo" pattern Slok describes — yields snapping back and forth without a clear trend — raises the cost of hedging and forces portfolio managers to maintain wider risk buffers. The MOVE Index's elevation above 130 suggests options premiums on Treasuries are pricing in continued turbulence through the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting. ## Rate Differentials Widen as Global Peers Maintain Guidance The Fed's communication void contrasts with other major central banks. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England have maintained forward guidance frameworks, creating a divergence in rate expectations that has widened the US-German 10-year yield spread to 185 basis points. That gap, near its widest since 2023, has supported the dollar against the euro and the pound, adding another layer of complexity for multinational corporations managing FX exposure. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.