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Edgen Stock·Jul 22 2026, 13:11
Panama is considering creating a state-owned mining company to partner with First Quantum Minerals Ltd. on reopening the Cobre Panama copper mine, one of the world's largest, two people familiar with the matter said. "It is clear that the government wants to open the mine with First Quantum, but it still fears social unrest," said a person who previously advised the Panamanian government on the mine, speaking on condition of anonymity. The mine's 2023 shutdown after Panama's Supreme Court ruled First Quantum's 20-year contract unconstitutional wiped out 4.5% of the country's gross domestic product, according to International Monetary Fund data, removed more than 1% of global copper production and cut 40% of First Quantum's revenue. President Jose Mulino, elected in 2024 after public unrest over the mine, now faces unemployment near 10% and copper prices near record levels, making reopening more attractive. Under one proposal, First Quantum would hold a 60% to 65% stake in the mine, with Panama owning 35% to 40%, one of the sources said. The Canadian miner would receive a larger share reflecting its prior investment. A state-owned entity could circumvent a 2023 Panamanian law banning new mining concessions, as the law is ambiguous regarding concessions granted to a state entity, according to a person familiar with Panama's legal framework. A separate leasing option would see First Quantum pay royalties and taxes to the government. **Supply-Side Impact of a Cobre Panama Restart** Cobre Panama produced approximately 350,000 tonnes of copper annually before its closure, equivalent to more than 1% of global mined supply. A restart would add meaningful tonnage to a market the International Copper Study Group has described as structurally undersupplied, with deficits projected through the decade. The mine's potential return compares to other major supply additions such as Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produced 394,000 tonnes in 2024. Public-private mining ventures are becoming more common in resource-rich nations seeking greater control over strategic minerals. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, has pursued similar models through Codelco partnerships, while Zambia has explored state participation in its copper sector. **Decision Timeline and Arbitration Suspension** Commerce and Industry Minister Julio Molto said in July the government will decide by the end of 2026 and that Panama will maintain "complete sovereignty" over the mine. First Quantum has suspended a $20 billion arbitration claim against Panama over the mine's closure, signaling a thaw in relations. The government has already allowed the company to sell remaining copper concentrate, restart the mine's power plant and complete an environmental audit that scored 88% compliance. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**Apple is preparing the broadest Mac product refresh in its history, spanning every model from the MacBook Air to the Mac Studio across two product cycles starting this fall.** Apple's plan to equip its entire Mac lineup with M6 chips and OLED displays across two product cycles starting this fall could drive the company's first major upgrade wave since the Apple Silicon transition, analysts said. "This is a full-stack reset — every Mac gets a new chip, and the high-end models get a display technology that Apple has reserved for iPhones and iPads," said an analyst familiar with the company's supply chain. "The OLED transition alone could lift Mac average selling prices by 15 percent to 20 percent." The entry-level 14-inch MacBook Pro and the iMac will receive the M6 chip in the first wave, expected in fall 2026, according to people familiar with the plans. A second wave in 2027 will bring redesigned high-end 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro models with OLED touchscreens — a first for the Mac line. Apple also plans to update the MacBook Air, Mac mini, and Mac Studio with upgraded processors, though memory chip supply constraints could push some of those releases into early 2027. Apple's Mac business generated $30 billion in fiscal 2025, and a full product cycle refresh could add 10 percent to 15 percent to annual revenue if the upgrade cycle materializes as expected. Suppliers of OLED panels and advanced memory chips stand to benefit, though any supply constraints could shift the timeline. **M6 Chip Marks a New Silicon Era** The M6 chip represents Apple's third generation of custom silicon built on an advanced process node, following the M4 family that debuted in 2024. While Apple has not disclosed M6 specifications, the chip is expected to deliver meaningful performance gains over the M4 Pro and M4 Max, which offer up to 16 CPU cores and 40 GPU cores. The current M4 Max delivers 16.8 trillion operations per second for neural network tasks, according to Apple's published specifications, and the M6 is expected to widen that gap significantly as Apple pushes deeper into on-device AI workloads. The transition to OLED displays on the high-end MacBook Pro models mirrors Apple's strategy with the iPhone and iPad Pro, where the technology improved contrast ratios and power efficiency while adding roughly $100 to $200 to the bill of materials per unit, according to supply chain estimates. For Apple, which shipped about 24 million Macs in fiscal 2025, the OLED upgrade on premium models could add $2 billion to $3 billion in incremental revenue if buyers opt for the higher-priced configurations. **OLED Transition Reshapes the Mac Lineup** The shift to OLED on the 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pro marks the most significant display upgrade since Apple introduced Retina screens in 2012. Current MacBook Pro models use mini-LED backlighting, which offers high brightness but suffers from blooming effects in high-contrast scenes. OLED eliminates blooming entirely and enables thinner designs, though it adds cost. The redesigned models are expected to feature a new form factor with thinner bezels and a potential touch-capable interface, according to the report. The OLED transition also creates a clearer differentiation between the MacBook Air and MacBook Pro lines. The Air, which uses standard LCD panels, will remain the entry-level option, while the Pro line with OLED targets creative professionals willing to pay a premium. Apple's Mac ASP has risen steadily from $1,200 in 2020 to roughly $1,450 in fiscal 2025, and the OLED upgrade could push that figure past $1,600. **Supply Chain Risks and Competitive Dynamics** Memory chip supply constraints pose the primary risk to Apple's timeline. The company relies on Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. for DRAM and NAND flash used in its Mac lineup, and both suppliers are prioritizing high-bandwidth memory for AI data centers over consumer-grade chips. If the constraint persists into 2027, Apple may need to stagger the MacBook Air and Mac Studio updates, the report said. On the competitive front, the M6-powered Macs will face a PC market where Qualcomm Inc.'s Snapdragon X Elite chips and Intel Corp.'s Lunar Lake processors are gaining traction in the Windows ecosystem. Qualcomm's chips, built on a 4nm process, have narrowed the performance-per-watt gap with Apple Silicon, though Apple's vertical integration — controlling both chip design and operating system — remains a structural advantage that PC rivals cannot replicate. **Investment Impact** Apple shares trade at about 32 times forward earnings, a premium to the S&P 500's 22 times, reflecting investor expectations for a product-driven growth cycle. The Mac refresh, combined with Apple's push into AI services, could support revenue acceleration through fiscal 2027. Suppliers including Samsung, LG Display Co. for OLED panels, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which fabricates Apple's M-series chips on its 3nm and future 2nm nodes, are positioned to capture upside from the cycle. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Moody's Corp reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.68, beating the $4.24 consensus, as revenue jumped 15% on higher debt issuance. "The results primarily benefited from an improvement in revenues," the company said, citing steady demand for analytics and strong performance at its Moody's Investors Service division. Revenue reached $2.19 billion, surpassing the $2.09 billion consensus estimate by 4.9%. MIS revenue surged 25% to $1.3 billion, with broad-based gains across corporate finance, structured finance, financial institutions, and public finance. Moody's Analytics revenue rose 4% to $925 million, led by 9% growth in data and information. | Metric | Actual | Consensus | Beat/Miss | |--------|--------|-----------|-----------| | Revenue | $2.19B | $2.09B | +4.9% | | EPS | $4.68 | $4.24 | +10.4% | | MIS Revenue | $1.3B | $1.20B | +8.3% | Adjusted operating income climbed 25% to $1.21 billion, with the adjusted operating margin expanding to 55.3% from 50.9% a year earlier. Total expenses increased 5% to $1.14 billion, reflecting costs tied to acquisitions and restructuring. Net income attributable to Moody's was $878 million, or $5.03 per share, up from $578 million a year ago. The company narrowed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $16.50-$17.00 from $16.40-$17.00 and raised its share repurchase target to $3 billion for 2026. Moody's expects revenue growth in the high-single-digit percent range with operating expenses rising in the mid-single digits. Shares fell about 2% in pre-market trading on broader market weakness despite the beat. The guidance raise signals management expects sustained strength in capital markets activity. Investors will watch the Q3 earnings call for updates on issuance trends and margin trajectory. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
