

Morgan Stanley expects BYD Co. to report second-quarter net profit of RMB9 billion ($1.2 billion), a sharp rebound from the first quarter's low base that could restore investor confidence after a year of earnings adjustments. "BYD is poised for a strong recovery in 2Q results, rebuilding market confidence and supporting a valuation re-rating in the second half and into 2027," the broker said in a report. Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating on the Shenzhen-based automaker with an H-share target price of HKD121. The forecast implies vehicle sales of 1.1 million units for the quarter ended June, up 58% from the first quarter, underpinned by a 68% sequential jump in domestic deliveries and a 47% rise in overseas sales. Revenue is projected at RMB217 billion, up 45% quarter over quarter. For the full year, Morgan Stanley estimates BYD will sell 4.6 million vehicles, comprising 2.8 million domestic units and 1.8 million overseas units. Second-half sales are forecast at 2.8 million units, up 12% from a year earlier. The earnings recovery comes after a period of margin compression and competitive pressure in China's EV market. A strong 2Q print would signal that BYD's cost structure and pricing power remain intact despite intensifying competition from peers such as Geely and XPeng. The stock fell 3.4% on Thursday, with short selling accounting for 31.6% of turnover, reflecting lingering bearish positioning. A confirmed earnings beat could trigger a short squeeze and drive the stock toward Morgan Stanley's target, which implies roughly 20% upside from current levels. Investors will watch for BYD's official 2Q release, expected in late August, for actual margins and segment-level profitability. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.5% on Thursday as a selloff in semiconductor stocks erased gains from record TSMC earnings and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for higher interest rates.** The S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,533.77 and the Nasdaq dropped 1.5% to 25,881.95 as a selloff in chip stocks deepened, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index sliding 4.3%. "Hedge funds are taking profits after an extraordinary run in AI-related names," Goldman Sachs said in a note Wednesday, adding that aggregate net exposure to its broad AI basket had fallen to the lowest level this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 105.67 points, or 0.2%, to 52,552.97. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones 1,215 to 1,515 on the New York Stock Exchange. Chip companies Sandisk, Seagate, Micron, Intel and Advanced Micro Devices all lost ground. The selloff came even as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing posted its fifth consecutive quarter of record earnings, with profit jumping 77%. The combination of rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and the first explicit call for a rate hike from a Fed policymaker under Chairman Kevin Warsh is testing the durability of the AI trade that has powered much of this year's equity gains. The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 28-29, with futures markets pricing just a 10% probability of a move. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.2 basis points to 4.568%, while the WSJ Dollar Index gained 0.2%. Gold fell 1.4% to $3,985.60 a troy ounce, its lowest settlement in more than eight months, as higher real yields reduced the metal's appeal. Brent crude slipped 0.8% to $84.23 a barrel as the Wall Street Journal reported President Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations in Iran. Logan, a voting member of the FOMC, said in prepared remarks in Houston that "modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks" for the central bank's dual mandate. "The labor, consumption and financial data indicate that monetary policy is not restraining the economy," she said. The current policy rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. Retail sales rose 0.2% in June, slowing from a revised 1% gain in May, the Commerce Department said. The deceleration largely reflected lower gasoline prices during the Iran ceasefire, with spending at gas stations falling 5.3%. Excluding gas stations, retail spending rose 0.7%. UnitedHealth Group raised its earnings forecast, sending shares up 1.2%. GE Aerospace also lifted its outlook but said supply-chain constraints continue to cause production delays, sending its shares down 4.1%. Eli Lilly agreed to acquire psychedelic drug developer AtaiBeckley for an initial $2.8 billion, with contingent payments that could bring the total to $3.8 billion. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.55%, its highest level in nearly a year, according to Freddie Mac, as stubbornly high financing costs continued to weigh on the housing market. *This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*

**Microsoft spent more than $80 billion acquiring game studios to fuel its Game Pass subscription service. Now it's laying off 3,200 employees and divesting five studios.** Microsoft's acquisition spree, which brought Activision Blizzard and franchises including Call of Duty and Fallout under its roof, was designed to make Game Pass the dominant subscription service in gaming. Instead, the Xbox division is cutting about 3,200 jobs and shedding five studios, with Chief Executive Officer Asha Sharma calling for a business reset, the Wall Street Journal reported. "We need to reset the business," Sharma said, according to the Journal. The company spent more than $80 billion on studio acquisitions, including the $69 billion Activision Blizzard deal, the largest transaction in gaming history. The divestitures and layoffs affect studios across the Xbox portfolio, though Microsoft has not specified which teams are impacted. The restructuring highlights the challenge of making subscription economics work for blockbuster games that cost hundreds of millions of dollars to produce. Sony's PlayStation Plus and Nintendo's Switch Online face similar margin pressure, but Microsoft's $80 billion bet leaves it with the most to lose if the model fails to scale. The Game Pass model required Microsoft to maintain a steady pipeline of exclusive content to attract and retain subscribers. That logic drove the Activision Blizzard acquisition, which closed in October 2023 after a protracted regulatory battle. But producing or licensing enough high-quality titles to justify the monthly fee proved more expensive than anticipated, and subscriber growth has lagged internal projections, the Journal reported. For Microsoft, the Xbox reset comes as the company invests heavily in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure, areas where it sees clearer growth. The gaming division accounted for about 11 percent of Microsoft's total revenue in its most recent fiscal year, with lower margins than its cloud and productivity software businesses. Microsoft shares rose 1.4 percent on the day of the announcement. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.