Capital Economics sees S&P 500 at 8,250 before 20% AI unwind

source:

[1] Wall Street analysts warn the AI boom is on 'borrowed time' (https://finbold.com/wall-street-analysts-warn ...)[2] Wall Street analysts warns the AI boom is on 'borrowed time' (https://finbold.com/wall-street-analysts-warn ...)[3] Why AI Infrastructure Demand Still Exceeds Supply After the Stock Market Pullback (https://www.kucoin.com/blog/ai-infrastructure ...)[4] Second Quarter Earnings: A Rising AI Tide Lifts Many Sectors (https://seekingalpha.com/article/4945413-seco ...)[5] The Times & The Sunday Times Homepage (https://www.thetimes.com/ ...)

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Sep 13 2026, 10:12

L&G says Bessent can't control yields as deficit drives term premium

Matthew Rees, head of global bond strategies at Legal & General Asset Management, said there is "no way" for US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to control bond yields while the federal deficit keeps forcing new issuance into the market — a claim that puts the long end of the curve, not the Treasury Department, at the center of the rate outlook. "The deficit is the driver," Rees said in a CNBC interview, arguing that the supply of Treasuries needed to fund federal borrowing sets the yield path regardless of who runs the Treasury. He also flagged the likelihood of a credit or bond market event as a live risk. The claim lands on the most sensitive part of the curve. Long-dated yields are set by term premium — the extra compensation investors demand for holding duration — and that premium responds to how much paper the government must sell. When issuance rises faster than demand, the marginal buyer demands a higher yield, and no amount of guidance from the Treasury can substitute for that clearing price. The 10-year and 30-year yields, not the policy rate, are where that adjustment shows up. Rees's warning about a credit or bond market event is the second thread. A dislocation in credit markets typically begins with a sharp repricing of risk-free duration: when long yields jump, corporate spreads widen, refinancing costs climb, and the weakest borrowers lose access first. Rees did not specify a trigger or a timeline, and L&G did not disclose a target level for yields or a probability estimate for such an event. Positioning is the third pressure point. With fiscal uncertainty unresolved, investors have little basis for extending duration, which leaves flows concentrated in the front end and in cash-like instruments. That skew can amplify moves when supply lands: a market with fewer long-end buyers absorbs the same auction size at a higher yield. Specific flow data for the current period was not yet disclosed in the interview. The transmission chain runs from the long end outward. Higher term premium lifts mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and the discount rate applied to long-duration equities — growth and technology names and real estate are the most rate-sensitive. A genuine credit event would tighten financial conditions faster than any policy response, pushing investors toward the dollar and safe havens while pressuring risk assets, including crypto. The historical anchor is the 2023 episode, when the 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5 percent before the Treasury shifted its issuance mix toward shorter maturities and the move reversed. That precedent cuts both ways for Rees's argument: it shows the Treasury can influence the composition of supply, but it also shows the long end repriced on fiscal and demand concerns that the department did not control. What happens next depends on the auction calendar and the deficit trajectory. If long-end demand holds, term premium stays contained and the yield path is gradual. If it does not, the adjustment arrives through the market rather than through policy — which is precisely the mechanism Rees describes. The next quarterly refunding announcement and the accompanying auction sizes are the nearest scheduled tests of that demand. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sep 13 2026, 10:06

Fed hike odds hit 87.3% as Warsh projections decide the week

Traders have all but decided Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision for it. A quarter-point increase is now 87.3% priced in fed funds futures, a jump from 59.4% a week ago, and that near-certainty has shifted the entire equity trade onto Chair Kevin Warsh's new economic projections. "The hike is close to fully discounted, so the statement and the projections carry the information," said James Okafor, rates strategist covering the Federal Reserve. "Traders need to know whether the committee sees one move as enough or intends to follow the bond market higher." The current target range is 3.50% to 3.75%. A quarter-point increase would lift it to 3.75% to 4.00%. Friday's CPI report settled the argument over whether inflation still warrants attention: headline inflation held at 3.4% from a year earlier and core eased to 2.4%, but the 0.3% monthly gain in core prices was the largest since April — the same threshold Governor Christopher Waller had identified as sufficient to support another increase. The Fed has now missed its 2% target for more than five years. Equities finished last week lower across all three major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,573.29, down 1.57%. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 26,333.04, down 0.66%, and the S&P 500 finished at 7,656.98, down 0.80%. The Dow closed below its first weekly support at 53,143.20, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain above the levels buyers must defend. All three sit above rising 52-week moving averages, so the long-term trend is still up — Wednesday decides whether that holds. ## Oil above $100 complicates the inflation math West Texas Intermediate briefly traded above $100 a barrel and Brent approached $110 before both pulled back late in the week. A rate increase cannot produce more crude, but with services inflation firm and the labor market strong, policymakers have less room to dismiss another supply shock. A renewed push above $100 would keep inflation fears alive and make a dovish message from Warsh harder to defend; a further retreat would ease pressure on yields and let the market refocus on earnings. Earnings remain the bulls' case. S&P 500 profits rose 50% from a year earlier in the second quarter, and analysts project 27% growth for the third quarter. That support kept the Nasdaq and S&P 500 near their highs even as yields and oil climbed. The last time the Fed raised rates into comparable profit growth, in the tightening cycle that began in 2022, the S&P 500 fell 19% over the following nine months before recovering — a reminder that the level of rates matters less than the projected path. ## Retail sales arrive hours before the decision Wednesday's retail sales report lands at 12:30 GMT, roughly five and a half hours before the Fed's 18:00 GMT statement. Economists forecast a 0.8% monthly gain in headline sales and 0.5% in core, reversing prior declines of 0.6% and 0.3%. Strong spending would give policymakers another reason to hike and keep the door open to further moves. A weak print would complicate the decision, though probably not enough to stop an increase already 87.3% priced. The first move after the announcement is likely positioning noise. The lasting move should come from the projections and Warsh's 18:30 GMT press conference. A hike paired with a limited policy path would tell traders the Fed is making an adjustment rather than starting another 2022-style campaign, which could steady bonds and give growth stocks a chance to regain their bid. A steeper projected rate path would put long-duration technology shares and the broader market back under pressure. For the Dow, 53,143.20 is the first level buyers need to recover, with support at 51,542.06 and the 52-week moving average at 49,364.31. The Nasdaq must hold 25,650.43 against resistance at 26,875.52. The S&P 500 has a support zone at 7,565.31 to 7,527.28 and resistance at 7,816.70. If those levels hold and Warsh limits expectations for follow-up hikes, buyers can make another run at the highs. If the Fed signals several increases and crude turns higher again, sellers have the opening to extend September's correction. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sep 13 2026, 10:03

Houthis seize 3 Bab-el-Mandeb points as 129 Saudi strikes hit Yemen

Houthi forces took the Red Sea port of Mocha on Sept. 10, the government army's last major Bab-el-Mandeb outpost at Zubab on Sept. 11 and Perim Island, giving the militia artillery range over a waterway that carried roughly 12 percent of global seaborne oil before the current war. "The Houthis now hold enough ground that artillery alone can control this waterway," Li Zixin, an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, said in a CCTV commentary. "Houthi maritime restrictions on Saudi Arabia continue, and the kingdom's east-west pipeline has been shut by drone strikes." Saudi warplanes flew 129 sorties across seven Yemeni provinces in the 48 hours to Sept. 12, hitting Taiz, Marib, Hodeida, Al-Jawf, Saada, Al-Bayda and Hajjah, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said. Saudi Arabia's civil defense directorate said a Houthi strike on Tuwal district in Jizan province wounded two people and damaged buildings and vehicles, calling the targeting of civilian sites "a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law." The Saudi-led coalition separately accused the Houthis of missile and drone attacks on Abha, Khamis Mushait and Jazan. Brent crude has held a war-risk premium since the U.S.-Iran conflict began throttling Hormuz traffic, and the Bab-el-Mandeb seizure compounds it: with Hormuz constrained and the Saudi east-west pipeline offline, the kingdom's two export routes are simultaneously impaired. Red Sea war-risk insurance premiums and Cape of Good Hope rerouting costs rise with each escalation, extending voyage lengths and lifting freight rates for refiners in Europe and Asia. ## Washington declines to strike, and Riyadh's options narrow President Donald Trump said on Sept. 12 that Washington had spoken with the Houthis, who told U.S. officials they do not want war with America. The Houthis have not publicly confirmed the call. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman telephoned Trump twice on Sept. 10 to request U.S. airstrikes on Houthi targets, according to reports; Washington declined direct military action and offered intelligence and targeting support instead. The White House and Saudi officials have not publicly confirmed the calls. That restraint caps Riyadh's escalation ladder. Saudi Arabia can sustain airstrikes, but its ground partners are the weak link: the Yemeni government army lost Mocha, the Hanish islands and other positions within nine days, with some units withdrawing before contact. A full civil war restart is a real risk, and the Houthis are likely to convert battlefield gains into negotiating leverage rather than pursue total victory. Iran's position is deliberately narrow. President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sept. 12 in India that Iran and Saudi Arabia "are not in a state of war" and that regional states should build security together. Three days earlier, Reuters reported, Pakistan conveyed a Saudi warning to Tehran: restrain the Houthis or the conflict becomes a wider regional security crisis. A senior Iranian official confirmed the message and said Iran "cannot control the Houthis." ## The Mecca pact faces its first test That exchange matters because Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed a defense agreement in August treating an attack on one as an attack on all three. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said on Sept. 8 that any unprovoked attack on Yemen, or spillover from Yemen into Saudi territory, would trigger the pact. Israel's Jerusalem Post called it the first test of the Mecca defense alliance. Turkey's foreign ministry urged the Houthis to halt "aggressive actions immediately," while Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Qatar's foreign ministry condemned the strikes on Saudi energy sites. The historical template is the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais attack, when drones knocked out 5.7 million barrels a day of Saudi processing capacity — about half the kingdom's output — and Brent jumped 14.6 percent in a single session, the largest one-day gain in the contract's history. That spike faded within two weeks because capacity was restored. A chokepoint seizure is harder to reverse than a damaged processing plant: it requires ground forces to retake terrain, not repair crews. For markets, the transmission chain runs from Houthi guns at Perim to war-risk premia on Red Sea transits, then to freight rates, then to delivered crude costs for European and Asian refiners, and finally to headline inflation prints that constrain central bank easing. Gold and Treasuries draw haven bids; tanker equities and defense names outperform while airlines and refiners with Red Sea exposure lag. The next markers are whether Saudi Arabia launches a ground offensive in Taiz and Marib, whether Pakistan's pact language is tested by further Houthi strikes inside the kingdom, and whether Washington's diplomatic channel produces any Houthi commitment on shipping. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.