

A surprise draw in US crude inventories and an OPEC+ production increase are pulling oil prices in opposite directions, leaving traders to weigh near-term tightness against future supply growth. WTI crude hovered near $78 a barrel on Thursday as a sharper-than-expected drawdown in US stockpiles offset the bearish weight of an OPEC+ decision to boost output, keeping the market locked in a tug-of-war between supply constraints and growth expectations. "The market is caught between two competing narratives — physical tightness in the US and the prospect of more barrels from OPEC+," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. "The EIA data shows supply isn't deteriorating further, but Cushing inventories are getting uncomfortably low." US crude inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels last week, the EIA reported Wednesday, undershooting the 2.6 million-barrel draw analysts had forecast. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma — the delivery point for WTI futures — have remained below 20 million barrels since mid-June, a level the EIA said may approach minimum operating requirements known as "tank bottoms." Brent crude traded at $83.62, down 1.31 percent, while WTI settled at $78.53, a 1.02 percent decline. The conflicting signals come as the US-Iran conflict continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handled about one-fifth of the world's crude before the war. Goldman Sachs warned that if Persian Gulf exports remain constrained, Brent could breach $110 a barrel in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 319.5 million barrels, its lowest since 1983, leaving limited room for emergency releases. **Cushing Bottoms Test WTI Structure** The dwindling inventories at Cushing have begun to distort the usual pricing relationship between US and global benchmarks. WTI briefly traded at a premium to Brent in mid-June, an uncommon inversion that reflected exceptionally tight domestic supply. The EIA said it is reviewing the results of a pilot study to better understand minimum working crude inventory levels at the hub, after stocks fell to levels that may constrain normal pipeline and pump operations. According to the EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Cushing inventories have stayed below 20 million barrels since the week ended June 19. Storage terminals require a minimum volume of crude — known as "tank bottoms" — to keep pumps and pipelines operating. Once inventories approach those levels, some oil becomes effectively inaccessible even though storage tanks are not technically empty. **OPEC+ Supply Looms as Geopolitical Risk Persists** The OPEC+ decision to increase production adds a bearish layer to the outlook, even as geopolitical risks remain elevated. The US military launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iranian coastal defense systems near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday night, a seven-hour operation targeting cruise missile storage and launch sites. Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by warning it would close other export routes and announced retaliatory strikes against US military targets in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. Shipping traffic through the strait remains severely disrupted. Only six tankers traversed the waterway on Sunday with their Automatic Identification Systems turned on, compared with a daily average of 25 vessels in the preceding seven days. Iran's crude exports have averaged roughly 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day over the past two weeks, according to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, as a US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues. Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf crude exports have fallen back below 50 percent of pre-war levels in the past week, to around 11 million barrels per day, after recovering to more than 80 percent following a US-Iran memorandum of understanding in June. If the recovery stalls, the bank said, Brent could surpass $110 a barrel by the fourth quarter. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, meanwhile, stands at 319.5 million barrels, approaching the 250 million-barrel safety floor identified by the Government Accountability Office. At a release rate of 1 million barrels per day, the reserve could sustain operations for a maximum of 60 more days before facing technical failures, according to Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Burberry reported first-quarter revenue of £455 million, up 5% from a year earlier, as strong US spending offset a decline in Europe caused by the Iran conflict weighing on tourist travel. "The US consumer continues to embrace our brand, and we are seeing early signs that our turnaround strategy is gaining traction," Chief Executive Officer Joshua Schulman said in a statement. Comparable store sales rose 5% in the 13 weeks to June 27, matching analysts' expectations. The Europe and Middle East region declined 3%, hurt by reduced tourist spending as the Iran war disrupted travel patterns. Trench coats led growth across every product category — the first time in three years the company achieved category-wide expansion, according to the earnings release. The results mark a turning point for Burberry after years of uneven performance under previous management. The company's turnaround, which includes refreshed product lines and increased marketing investment, now faces the test of sustaining momentum as geopolitical risks in the Middle East persist. The US market, which delivered the strongest growth, will remain the key driver as Burberry competes with French luxury houses LVMH and Kering for American discretionary spending. The guidance raise signals management expects the recovery to broaden in the second half. Investors will watch the next quarterly update for evidence that US momentum can offset continued weakness in Europe and the Middle East. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Burberry reported its first quarterly revenue growth in more than three years, with retail sales rising 5% to £455 million in the 13 weeks to June 27. "Our strategy is working. We are attracting a broad range of luxury customers across product categories, channels and geographies," Chief Executive Officer Joshua Schulman said. Comparable sales grew 5% year over year, with all major product divisions — womenswear, menswear, accessories and childrenswear — returning to growth for the first time since 2023. The Americas led regional performance with a 12% gain, followed by Greater China at 9% and South Korea at 11%. Japan declined 2% as Chinese tourist spending weakened, while Europe, the Middle East, India and Africa fell 3% as the Middle East conflict continued. The results mark a turning point for the 170-year-old British luxury house, which swung to a £115 million operating profit in fiscal 2026 from a £3 million loss the prior year. The company has closed 21 underperforming stores and plans to cut about 1,700 jobs by 2027 as part of its "Burberry Forward" restructuring. Outerwear led product performance with double-digit growth, driven by heritage rainwear, lightweight jackets and seasonal items. The "Portraits of an Icon" campaign helped attract 19% more new rainwear customers during the quarter. Women's handbags returned to growth, while knitwear, polo shirts and swimwear also posted gains. Gen Z customer growth rose by double digits. Ecommerce expanded by mid-teens during the period. Burberry raised its first-half wholesale guidance by a high-single-digit percentage after what it described as a positive response from wholesale partners. The company expects to deliver full-year revenue growth and margin expansion in line with market expectations, though it cautioned that geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty could weigh on consumer confidence. Cost-cutting initiatives generated £80 million in savings during fiscal 2026, with a target of £100 million in annualized savings by fiscal 2027. Total capital expenditure for the current year is projected at about £120 million. The guidance raise signals management expects the turnaround to build momentum through the remainder of the fiscal year. Investors will watch the next quarterly update for evidence that cross-divisional growth can be sustained as macroeconomic headwinds persist. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.