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Brent slips as Hormuz traffic recovers to 35% of pre-war levels
Edgen Stock·Jul 31 2026, 04:48Share to
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[1] Oil prices ease as recovering Hormuz Strait traffic tempers war premium (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/31/oil-prices-to ...)[2] Trump just got handed a partial win: Tankers are moving through Hormuz again under American military escort now (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/trump ...)[3] Oil Price Action Telling a Nuanced Story, JPM Says (https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_price_action ...)[4] Iran weaponized the Strait of Hormuz. Now its neighbors are building around it (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-wea ...)[5] AM markets need to know: Strait of Hormuz disruptions, OpenAI IPO, and more (https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/tech-com ...)
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Jul 31 2026, 06:26
Spain Deploys Army to Ceuta as 3,000 Migrants Breach Border
**Spain sent its armed forces to Ceuta on Thursday after thousands of migrants streamed across the border from Morocco, a surge that left at least nine people dead and handed Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez his sharpest immigration test since taking office.** Spain will deploy the army and 90 additional Civil Guard officers to the North African enclave, along with diving teams and boats to patrol the sea frontier, the government said. The move came after local authorities declared an "absolute humanitarian and social emergency" and demanded Madrid take direct command of the border response. "The situation is absolute chaos," Rachid Sbihi, head of the association representing Spain's Civil Guard officers who police the border in Ceuta, said. "It's not possible to give precise numbers, but there are thousands of migrants crossing," he added, describing the frontier as having "totally collapsed." Spain's national broadcaster TVE put Thursday's arrivals at between 2,000 and 3,000 people, on top of roughly 1,500 who entered in the ten days to Wednesday. Most crossed by swimming around the Tarajal breakwater on inflatable rings and makeshift flotation devices, while others scaled or bypassed sections of the border fence. Nearly 3,000 migrants had entered Ceuta by land or sea this year as of July 15, according to Interior Ministry figures. ## A Supreme Court Ruling Opened the Door Local officials trace the escalation to a Spanish Supreme Court ruling on July 8 that barred authorities from immediately returning migrants who reach Ceuta or Melilla by sea. Under the ruling, only those who scale the border fence can still be turned back to Morocco on the spot; anyone arriving by water must go through a deportation process that can take months and allows them to apply for asylum. A Guardia Civil spokesperson said arrivals had been "a slow trickle" since the ruling but Thursday was "an explosion," with smuggling networks advertising the legal change to potential migrants. The surge has strained Ceuta's reception capacity to the breaking point. The emergency shelter for unaccompanied migrant minors is operating at 2,400 percent above its ordinary capacity, while more people now sleep outside the city's adult reception center, built for 512, than inside it. Ceuta, a Spanish possession since 1580 with a population of about 85,000, is one of the European Union's only two land borders with Africa, alongside Melilla. ## Political Fallout Spreads Across Europe The crisis has become a political liability for Sánchez, whose center-left government has defied Europe's anti-immigration trend. Earlier this year it launched a program to grant legal residency to some 500,000 undocumented migrants already living in Spain, drawing applications double that number. The episode echoes the May 2021 crisis, when more than 8,000 migrants entered Ceuta in two days after Morocco eased border controls, a move widely read as diplomatic leverage over Madrid's decision to host Polisario Front leader Brahim Ghali for medical treatment. Opposition leaders seized on the chaos. Alberto Núñez Feijóo, head of the center-right People's Party, called it "a national security crisis," while Santiago Abascal of the far-right Vox party branded Sánchez a "traitor." In Germany, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel incorrectly claimed the migrants would gain free access to Europe, and Italy's Giorgia Meloni threatened to suspend the Schengen open-border agreement with Spain. Spain and Morocco reached a tentative agreement Thursday to return those who entered Ceuta illegally, with Madrid insisting the Moroccan government is "closely cooperating" to stem the flow. The stakes extend beyond Spanish politics. A repeat of the 2021 episode, when migration was used as diplomatic leverage, would test the EU's external border policy at a moment when Frontex is monitoring the frontier closely. For Sánchez, the immediate test is whether the army deployment and the return agreement can restore order before the crossings draw more arrivals to Fnideq, the Moroccan town where thousands continue to gather. If the surge persists, pressure will mount on Madrid to harden its pro-migration stance; if it recedes, the ruling that triggered the influx will remain a live legal battleground for Europe's border policy. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 31 2026, 06:23
Vance's Iran Chaos Warning Overlooks 4 Million Already Abroad
Vice President JD Vance's warning that US regime change in Iran would push 94 million people toward Europe overlooks the roughly 4 million Iranians who have already fled the Islamic Republic's rule. "The vice president presents mass migration as the most likely consequence of a regime-change policy while ignoring what has driven generations of Iranians abroad: the Islamic Republic itself," Navid Mohebbi, senior adviser to the Iran Prosperity Project, and Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran program senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, wrote in the Wall Street Journal. Iranian nationals submitted about 20,000 asylum applications in Europe between January 2023 and March 2024, nearly one-third more than the prior 15 months. The global Iranian diaspora spans 4-8 million people, including roughly 110,000 students in the top 10 destination countries in 2024. Monthly asylum applications began rising after the 2022-23 "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests and the subsequent crackdown. The debate carries direct policy stakes. Vance has emerged as the administration's strongest advocate of diplomacy with Iran since the April 8 ceasefire, while critics argue that sanctions relief and engagement have failed to stem migration or produce a reformed regime. The vice president's position has also created friction with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who met Vance at Blair House on Tuesday to address tensions over Iran policy. ## 20,000 Asylum Applications in 15 Months The migration data undercuts Vance's framing. Iranian nationals filed about 20,000 international protection applications in Europe between January 2023 and March 2024, up nearly one-third from the prior 15-month period. The High Council of Iranian Affairs Abroad estimates 4 million Iranians live outside the country, while broader counts that include people of Iranian descent put the figure between 5 million and 8 million. Education has become a primary exit route. Roughly 110,000 Iranian students enrolled in the top 10 destination countries for Iranian immigrants in 2024, after sharp growth over the previous four years. For many young Iranians, university admission has become the safest legal path out of a country where career prospects and social freedoms keep shrinking. The regime's internal repression has accelerated the exodus. Under an internet blackout, Iranian security forces carried out mass killings of protesters on Jan. 8-9 this year, with news reports estimating more than 40,000 people killed. President Trump has cited these tallies. The crackdown followed nationwide demonstrations that began in December 2017, the November 2019 uprising, and the 2022-23 "Woman, Life, Freedom" protests. Iran's instability extends beyond political repression: power cuts and environmental catastrophes have disrupted economic activity, pushing the country toward failed-state status well before the current war. Tehran's backing of Syria's Bashar al-Assad regime also contributed to the millions of refugees who fled that conflict. ## The Policy Fork: Diplomacy or Transition Planning Vance's warning on Joe Rogan's podcast drew a direct comparison to post-Gadhafi Libya, arguing that regime change would create chaos and drive "94 million desperate people" toward Europe and the US. But the WSJ authors argue the opposite: policies designed to stabilize the regime through sanctions relief and diplomacy have failed to stem migration or produce a reformed Islamic Republic. The vice president's position has put him at odds with Netanyahu, who has opposed a softer approach to Iran. Axios reported that Netanyahu was unhappy with Vance's public criticism, including remarks accusing the Israeli leader of stoking opposition to the memorandum of understanding. Vance has also alleged on the Rogan podcast that some Israeli government members were trying to push the US away from diplomacy and prolong the war. The stakes extend beyond migration policy. Iran sits on the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 21 percent of global oil trade, meaning any instability in Tehran carries direct energy market implications. The authors argue that those concerned about Iranian migration should worry about every additional day the regime stays in power, not just the day after it falls, and call for planning an orderly transition rather than avoiding the question entirely. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 31 2026, 06:23
US weighs AI model restrictions as Chinese open-source share hits 80%
The US government is weighing restrictions on Chinese open-source AI models after Moonshot AI's Kimi K3 triggered distillation accusations, a move that could reshape a supply chain where 80 percent of developers use Chinese tools. "We have information that Moonshot AI distilled Anthropic's Fable for the development of its K3 model," Michael Kratsios, White House science and technology policy advisor, posted on X. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent followed with a warning that "sanctions and Entity List designations will be on the table" for companies found to be improperly distilling AI models. The accusations center on distillation, a technique where smaller models learn from the outputs of larger frontier models. Anthropic said its Claude capabilities were distilled on an "industrial scale" by DeepSeek, Moonshot and MiniMax, which used about 24,000 fake accounts generating 16 million exchanges. Chinese open models accounted for more than 50 percent of all AI use on OpenRouter in some weeks this summer, up from a weekly average of roughly 13 percent in 2025. Microsoft is exploring a fine-tuned version of DeepSeek V4 as a low-cost alternative for Copilot Cowork, with DeepSeek costing less than a tenth of Anthropic's Opus. A ban would raise startup costs and concentrate pricing power among a handful of US incumbents, according to Selina Xu, a fellow at the Penn Project on the Future of US-China Relations. Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Palantir joined more than 20 other companies in a letter urging policymakers to avoid "premature restrictions" on open-weight AI models. Anthropic, valued at close to $1 trillion, said stopping illicit distillation was a matter of national security. ## Distillation: Common Practice or IP Theft? Distillation is widely used across the AI industry. Google's Jeff Dean said in February that the company discovered distillation techniques while looking to improve performance without relying on one large image recognition model. Nvidia used distillation as part of the training process for its Llama Nemotron series, as detailed in an accompanying research paper. "Distillation, or the practice of using one model's outputs to help train or improve another, is a widely used technique for model improvement, evolution, and validation," the industry letter stated. The line between legitimate distillation and IP theft is contested. OpenAI and Anthropic have banned the practice in their terms of service, arguing that using their larger models without authorization represents potential IP theft. But both companies have themselves relied on external content to build their models and have been sued for doing so. Max Pritt, an attorney for Boies Schiller Flexner who represents book authors in copyright litigation against AI firms, said the administration has focused on protecting technology companies' IP while remaining silent on creators' IP used without authorization. ## The Open-Source Economics at Stake Chinese open-weight models have become integral to the US AI supply chain. When some OpenAI models recently hacked Hugging Face, the victim had to turn to a Chinese open-weight model to defend itself because the safety guardrails of closed US models blocked its requests. Thinking Machines Lab, the startup founded by OpenAI's former chief technology officer Mira Murati, used Moonshot AI's Kimi K2.5 to generate some of its early post-training data. The economics are stark. Moonshot AI's annual recurring revenue spiked to a record high after Kimi K3's release, according to company president Zhang Yutong. Chinese open-source AI is effectively subsidizing the rest of the world through cheap access to intelligence. For US startups, the stakes are existential. Pukar Hamal, founder of AI security firm SecurityPal, said he would use Chinese open-weight models like Kimi K3 at his company because they could save significant money. "We would make sure that there's no nefarious backdoors in the code," Hamal said. "But hosting it on our own infrastructure after we've done an assessment, why not?" The White House has already tightened export rules covering frontier AI models, banning Anthropic's Fable from export and requiring OpenAI and Google to release frontier models in preview to selected partners. China is considering restricting the export of its own frontier AI models in response. Selina Xu argues the US should exclude foreign models from intelligence systems, military networks and critical infrastructure, but a model downloaded, independently evaluated and operated on a US company's own infrastructure poses a different risk from a Chinese-hosted service. "The answer to China's growing AI strength isn't to construct an American version of the Great Firewall," she wrote. "It is to outcompete Chinese models." For investors, the policy outcome carries direct implications. A ban on Chinese open-weight models would strengthen the pricing power of OpenAI and Anthropic, which charge premium rates for frontier access. But it would also raise costs for the broader AI startup market that depends on cheaper Chinese alternatives. Microsoft, which is exploring DeepSeek V4 for Copilot Cowork, could face higher infrastructure costs if the option is removed. Moonshot's Kimi K3 release already caused a dip in US stocks before the industry pushback letter was published, and further policy moves could trigger additional volatility across AI-linked equities. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.