Bessent's growth-out-of-debt math needs 4% GDP to work

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[1] Treasury Secretary Bessent says the U.S. can grow its way out of the debt crunch. What would it take? (https://www.wsj.com/economy/federal-debt-grow ...)[2] FO Exclusive: Global Economy Teetering on Brink of Major Crisis - Fair Observer (https://www.fairobserver.com/economics/fo-exc ...)[3] United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield Trade Ideas — TVC:US10Y - TradingView (https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-US10Y ...)

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Sep 13 2026, 10:06

Fed hike odds hit 87.3% as Warsh projections decide the week

Traders have all but decided Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision for it. A quarter-point increase is now 87.3% priced in fed funds futures, a jump from 59.4% a week ago, and that near-certainty has shifted the entire equity trade onto Chair Kevin Warsh's new economic projections. "The hike is close to fully discounted, so the statement and the projections carry the information," said James Okafor, rates strategist covering the Federal Reserve. "Traders need to know whether the committee sees one move as enough or intends to follow the bond market higher." The current target range is 3.50% to 3.75%. A quarter-point increase would lift it to 3.75% to 4.00%. Friday's CPI report settled the argument over whether inflation still warrants attention: headline inflation held at 3.4% from a year earlier and core eased to 2.4%, but the 0.3% monthly gain in core prices was the largest since April — the same threshold Governor Christopher Waller had identified as sufficient to support another increase. The Fed has now missed its 2% target for more than five years. Equities finished last week lower across all three major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 52,573.29, down 1.57%. The Nasdaq Composite ended at 26,333.04, down 0.66%, and the S&P 500 finished at 7,656.98, down 0.80%. The Dow closed below its first weekly support at 53,143.20, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 remain above the levels buyers must defend. All three sit above rising 52-week moving averages, so the long-term trend is still up — Wednesday decides whether that holds. ## Oil above $100 complicates the inflation math West Texas Intermediate briefly traded above $100 a barrel and Brent approached $110 before both pulled back late in the week. A rate increase cannot produce more crude, but with services inflation firm and the labor market strong, policymakers have less room to dismiss another supply shock. A renewed push above $100 would keep inflation fears alive and make a dovish message from Warsh harder to defend; a further retreat would ease pressure on yields and let the market refocus on earnings. Earnings remain the bulls' case. S&P 500 profits rose 50% from a year earlier in the second quarter, and analysts project 27% growth for the third quarter. That support kept the Nasdaq and S&P 500 near their highs even as yields and oil climbed. The last time the Fed raised rates into comparable profit growth, in the tightening cycle that began in 2022, the S&P 500 fell 19% over the following nine months before recovering — a reminder that the level of rates matters less than the projected path. ## Retail sales arrive hours before the decision Wednesday's retail sales report lands at 12:30 GMT, roughly five and a half hours before the Fed's 18:00 GMT statement. Economists forecast a 0.8% monthly gain in headline sales and 0.5% in core, reversing prior declines of 0.6% and 0.3%. Strong spending would give policymakers another reason to hike and keep the door open to further moves. A weak print would complicate the decision, though probably not enough to stop an increase already 87.3% priced. The first move after the announcement is likely positioning noise. The lasting move should come from the projections and Warsh's 18:30 GMT press conference. A hike paired with a limited policy path would tell traders the Fed is making an adjustment rather than starting another 2022-style campaign, which could steady bonds and give growth stocks a chance to regain their bid. A steeper projected rate path would put long-duration technology shares and the broader market back under pressure. For the Dow, 53,143.20 is the first level buyers need to recover, with support at 51,542.06 and the 52-week moving average at 49,364.31. The Nasdaq must hold 25,650.43 against resistance at 26,875.52. The S&P 500 has a support zone at 7,565.31 to 7,527.28 and resistance at 7,816.70. If those levels hold and Warsh limits expectations for follow-up hikes, buyers can make another run at the highs. If the Fed signals several increases and crude turns higher again, sellers have the opening to extend September's correction. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sep 13 2026, 10:03

Houthis seize 3 Bab-el-Mandeb points as 129 Saudi strikes hit Yemen

Houthi forces took the Red Sea port of Mocha on Sept. 10, the government army's last major Bab-el-Mandeb outpost at Zubab on Sept. 11 and Perim Island, giving the militia artillery range over a waterway that carried roughly 12 percent of global seaborne oil before the current war. "The Houthis now hold enough ground that artillery alone can control this waterway," Li Zixin, an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, said in a CCTV commentary. "Houthi maritime restrictions on Saudi Arabia continue, and the kingdom's east-west pipeline has been shut by drone strikes." Saudi warplanes flew 129 sorties across seven Yemeni provinces in the 48 hours to Sept. 12, hitting Taiz, Marib, Hodeida, Al-Jawf, Saada, Al-Bayda and Hajjah, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said. Saudi Arabia's civil defense directorate said a Houthi strike on Tuwal district in Jizan province wounded two people and damaged buildings and vehicles, calling the targeting of civilian sites "a flagrant violation of international humanitarian law." The Saudi-led coalition separately accused the Houthis of missile and drone attacks on Abha, Khamis Mushait and Jazan. Brent crude has held a war-risk premium since the U.S.-Iran conflict began throttling Hormuz traffic, and the Bab-el-Mandeb seizure compounds it: with Hormuz constrained and the Saudi east-west pipeline offline, the kingdom's two export routes are simultaneously impaired. Red Sea war-risk insurance premiums and Cape of Good Hope rerouting costs rise with each escalation, extending voyage lengths and lifting freight rates for refiners in Europe and Asia. ## Washington declines to strike, and Riyadh's options narrow President Donald Trump said on Sept. 12 that Washington had spoken with the Houthis, who told U.S. officials they do not want war with America. The Houthis have not publicly confirmed the call. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman telephoned Trump twice on Sept. 10 to request U.S. airstrikes on Houthi targets, according to reports; Washington declined direct military action and offered intelligence and targeting support instead. The White House and Saudi officials have not publicly confirmed the calls. That restraint caps Riyadh's escalation ladder. Saudi Arabia can sustain airstrikes, but its ground partners are the weak link: the Yemeni government army lost Mocha, the Hanish islands and other positions within nine days, with some units withdrawing before contact. A full civil war restart is a real risk, and the Houthis are likely to convert battlefield gains into negotiating leverage rather than pursue total victory. Iran's position is deliberately narrow. President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sept. 12 in India that Iran and Saudi Arabia "are not in a state of war" and that regional states should build security together. Three days earlier, Reuters reported, Pakistan conveyed a Saudi warning to Tehran: restrain the Houthis or the conflict becomes a wider regional security crisis. A senior Iranian official confirmed the message and said Iran "cannot control the Houthis." ## The Mecca pact faces its first test That exchange matters because Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed a defense agreement in August treating an attack on one as an attack on all three. Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said on Sept. 8 that any unprovoked attack on Yemen, or spillover from Yemen into Saudi territory, would trigger the pact. Israel's Jerusalem Post called it the first test of the Mecca defense alliance. Turkey's foreign ministry urged the Houthis to halt "aggressive actions immediately," while Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Qatar's foreign ministry condemned the strikes on Saudi energy sites. The historical template is the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais attack, when drones knocked out 5.7 million barrels a day of Saudi processing capacity — about half the kingdom's output — and Brent jumped 14.6 percent in a single session, the largest one-day gain in the contract's history. That spike faded within two weeks because capacity was restored. A chokepoint seizure is harder to reverse than a damaged processing plant: it requires ground forces to retake terrain, not repair crews. For markets, the transmission chain runs from Houthi guns at Perim to war-risk premia on Red Sea transits, then to freight rates, then to delivered crude costs for European and Asian refiners, and finally to headline inflation prints that constrain central bank easing. Gold and Treasuries draw haven bids; tanker equities and defense names outperform while airlines and refiners with Red Sea exposure lag. The next markers are whether Saudi Arabia launches a ground offensive in Taiz and Marib, whether Pakistan's pact language is tested by further Houthi strikes inside the kingdom, and whether Washington's diplomatic channel produces any Houthi commitment on shipping. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Sep 13 2026, 10:02

Prudential targets $3B capital boost in insurance footprint overhaul

Prudential Financial plans to cut the number of insurance and retirement markets it operates in by roughly half, a retreat Chairman and CEO Andy Sullivan said will free "well north of $3 billion" in capital for global retirement, asset management and select protection businesses. "Our goal, as we've said, is to be category leaders in those businesses," Sullivan said at a company event, describing the geographic reduction as a way to concentrate talent, capital and investment rather than a simple cost exercise. The Newark, New Jersey-based insurer, which trades on the NYSE under PRU, currently operates in more than a dozen markets. Alongside the exits, it targets $750 million in cost reductions by the end of 2028, with a first $150 million tranche due by the end of 2027. The savings come from four buckets: fewer management layers, technology spending on infrastructure consolidation, automation and artificial intelligence, expanded global capability centers in Ireland and India, and operational changes across all businesses including Japan. The company also wants PGIM, its $1.3 trillion asset-management arm, to lift its share of Prudential's earnings from about 12% to 25% over roughly five years. Sullivan said about half of that gain should come organically, mainly in direct lending, asset-backed finance and other private-credit capabilities, with acquisitions supplying the rest. Asset-management margins are targeted at 30% and eventually above that level, while Prudential aims for a further 150-basis-point cut in insurance operating expense ratios over three years. ## Exits and deals run in parallel, not in sequence Sullivan said Prudential is pursuing divestitures and acquisitions at the same time. Beyond asset-sale proceeds, the company could use reinsurance — third-party arrangements or its affiliated Prismic platform — to generate capital for transactions. Suspending share repurchases and issuing equity remain available but face high thresholds, he said. The acquisition net has widened beyond small and mid-sized asset-management deals. Prudential is evaluating targets in asset management, group insurance and a selective build-out of U.K. retirement capabilities. Within asset management it is looking at specialized buys such as infrastructure equity and broader multi-asset platforms that could deliver revenue and expense savings, with private alternatives and private credit of particular interest. In group insurance, it sees room to add dental and vision products and to reach employers below its current 1,000-employee sweet spot. In the U.K., Prudential recently announced a partnership involving Standard Life and CVC to enter the bulk purchase annuity market. PGIM's shift from a multi-manager structure to a single integrated platform was driven by client demand for fewer, broader relationships, Sullivan said. Only about 10% of PGIM clients currently use more than one asset class, which he called a significant cross-selling opportunity. The integrated distribution operation has already sold cross-asset mandates, and Prudential has not lost distribution talent it wanted to keep. He expects more than $150 million of costs to come out of the asset-management business over time, as previously separate units had carried duplicative leadership and functional roles. Public equities remain a drag. Sullivan said PGIM's Jennison business has seen systemic outflows, though earnings have been supported by equity-market performance. Outside public equities, management is encouraged by flow opportunities and mandate wins. ## Japan remediation runs in phases over 12 to 18 months Prudential remains on track with remediation at Prudential of Japan after halting sales to address sales-practice and conduct issues, but the precise date for resuming sales depends partly on talks with regulators and other stakeholders. Sullivan said the reopening will happen in phases over 12 to 18 months to test new controls, and that the company believes it is performing better than the assumptions already baked into its outlook. At Gibraltar, Prudential's other major Japanese life operation, Sullivan said the company found no systemic issues. Prudential contacted more than 6 million customers in Japan during the review, and responses pointed to fewer problems than management had expected. He described Japan as a long-term retirement opportunity given the country's wealth, longevity and retirement-income needs, adding that higher interest rates are helping Prudential offer more attractive yen-denominated products and should provide a natural portfolio tailwind over time. The objective, Sullivan said, is top-quartile earnings growth over a five-year strategic period, excluding the runoff of variable annuities, driven by global retirement, global asset management and select protection. For holders, the plan's value hinges on whether the $3 billion in released capital is redeployed above Prudential's cost of capital rather than returned, since Sullivan said every dollar deployed must clear that bar. The $750 million savings target is the nearer-term proof point: the first $150 million tranche lands by the end of 2027, and the pace of divestiture announcements between now and then will show whether the footprint reduction is moving on schedule. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.