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Barclays sees 30% to 60% commodity price swings from super El Niño
Edgen Stock·Jul 22 2026, 01:07Share to
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[1] 如何观察“超级厄尔尼诺交易”？油气“反应最快”，棕榈油、椰子油和橡胶等“热带农产品”弹性最大 (https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777619 ...)[2] A record El Niño is poised to be this year's next big supply shock for the global economy (https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/a-rec ...)
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Jul 22 2026, 03:07
Three unlikely Japanese AI winners rally as Nikkei gains 34%
**Three Japanese industrial companies known for toilets, glass fiber and seasoning have emerged as unlikely beneficiaries of the artificial-intelligence boom, with shares rallying this year as AI-linked business segments posted sharp growth.** Toto Ltd., Nittobo Inc. and Ajinomoto Co. have seen their shares rise in 2026, as AI-linked business segments delivered revenue growth, according to company disclosures cited by CNBC. "The Nikkei 225 is surging above 34% in 2026, one of the strongest surges due to the AI boom," Muhammad Umair, founder of Gold Predictors, wrote in a research note. "The 2020 bottom triggered a strong parabolic surge, with average yearly gains above 20%." The Nikkei 225 broke above 60,000 in May after consolidating between 58,000 and 60,000, and has since reached record highs above 67,000, according to market data. The index climbed 3.3% on July 21. Semiconductor stocks including Tokyo Electron, Advantest and Lasertec have led the rally, but industrial companies with AI-linked product lines have also participated. The broadening of AI beneficiaries into Japan's industrial sector signals that demand for AI infrastructure is rippling through the supply chain beyond chipmakers. For investors, this creates opportunities in companies that offer indirect AI exposure beyond the crowded semiconductor trade. **How Industrial Companies Plug Into AI** Toto's ceramic manufacturing capabilities, developed over a century of producing bathroom fixtures, have found applications in precision components used by semiconductor equipment makers. Nittobo's glass fiber business supplies reinforcement materials for printed circuit boards, a critical component in AI servers that require high-speed data transmission. Ajinomoto's chemical division produces amino-acid-based materials used in chip fabrication, leveraging expertise developed in its seasoning business. These companies represent a second tier of AI beneficiaries — firms whose products are essential to the AI supply chain but whose primary business identity lies outside technology. Their gains this year suggest investors are increasingly looking beyond obvious AI plays like Nvidia and its direct suppliers. **Japan's AI Tailwind** The broader Japanese equity market has provided a powerful tailwind. The Nikkei 225 has gained 34% in 2026, one of the strongest annual performances since the 2020 pandemic bottom. The index has formed multiple V-shaped recovery patterns after corrections, with every dip attracting buyers. Short-term support sits at 63,800 and 60,000, according to technical analysis from Gold Predictors. The next target is 70,000. A weaker yen has also boosted Japanese exporters by improving the yen value of foreign earnings. This has benefited a wide range of Japanese companies, from automakers to electronics manufacturers, creating a favorable environment for industrial stocks. For investors, the broadening of AI beneficiaries into Japan's industrial sector creates new entry points beyond the crowded semiconductor trade. Companies like Toto, Nittobo and Ajinomoto offer indirect AI exposure, though their AI-linked revenue remains a small fraction of total sales. The sustainability of the rally depends on whether these segments can grow enough to meaningfully contribute to earnings. Renesas Electronics, TDK Corp. and SoftBank Group have also been key drivers of the Nikkei's AI-fueled rally, according to market data. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 22 2026, 02:52
Hong Kong gold stocks surge 15% as geopolitical tensions fuel rally
Hong Kong-listed gold mining stocks surged on July 22, with Chifeng Gold jumping 15.20% to lead a sector-wide rally as escalating US-Iran hostilities drove investors toward safe-haven assets. "Gold has fallen over 3% this week as the sharpening conflict between the US and Iran pushed oil prices up and added to inflation worries," said Renisha Chainaini, head of research at Augmont, in a July 17 note. "The possibility of Iran persuading the Houthis to shut down Red Sea shipping lanes has investors bracing for another round of energy-driven inflation." Chifeng Gold (06693.HK) rose 15.20%, while Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) gained 14.33% and Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) climbed 13.99%. Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) advanced 7.81%, reflecting broad-based buying across the precious metals mining sub-sector. The rally in gold miners came as the US expanded military strikes on Iranian infrastructure and Tehran responded by striking US bases in neighboring countries, deepening worries that the conflict could disrupt energy supply. Brent crude held above $85 a barrel, while markets priced in a 73% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.6% to 3,818.59, tracking weakness across Asian equities as the geopolitical risk premium weighed on regional markets. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Jul 22 2026, 02:46
3 major publishers weigh cutting off Google as AI search traffic falls
Google's AI search tools are replacing the blue-link results that have driven referral traffic to publishers for two decades, pushing Reddit, Politico and others to weigh whether they can afford to keep feeding the company's search index. The discussions, reported by the Wall Street Journal, mark a potential rupture in a relationship that has defined the economics of digital publishing since Google's rise. "Publishers are realizing that Google is no longer a distribution partner — it's a competitor for their own content," said a senior media executive familiar with the discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity because the talks are private. The shift threatens a revenue model that has funneled billions of dollars to news organizations annually through Google's ad network and search referrals. Reddit and Politico are among those reassessing the relationship, according to people familiar with the matter. If major publishers begin blocking Google's crawlers or restricting content access, the search giant risks degrading the quality of its AI-generated answers, which depend on fresh, authoritative content. For publishers, walking away from Google means forfeiting a traffic source that has become central to their digital readership — an existential trade-off as display advertising revenue continues to decline. **The AI Search Shift Reshapes the Publisher-Google Bargain** Google's transition from a search engine that sends users to external sites to one that answers queries directly within its own interface represents the most significant change to the web's traffic architecture since the introduction of the search index. The company's Search Generative Experience summarizes information from multiple sources into a single AI-generated response, reducing the need for users to click through to publisher sites. The change has accelerated as Google integrates its Gemini AI model deeper into search. Pavel Fabrikantov, SVP of Product at Semrush, said search is not disappearing but expanding, with visibility now spanning traditional results, AI answers, citations and prompts. For publishers, the implication is clear: fewer clicks mean less ad revenue, even as their content becomes the raw material for Google's AI answers. **The Existential Trade-Off for Both Sides** The standoff carries risks for both parties. Google's AI search product depends on access to high-quality, up-to-date content from publishers to generate accurate answers. If Reddit, Politico and others restrict access, Google's AI summaries could lose timeliness and authority, potentially driving users to competing AI search products from OpenAI, Perplexity or Microsoft's Bing. For publishers, the alternative to Google is not necessarily better. The digital advertising market remains dominated by Google and Meta, and alternative traffic sources such as social media, email newsletters and direct readership have not replaced the scale of search referrals. Publishers that cut off Google risk a sharp decline in readership and ad revenue in the short term, even if they believe the long-term trajectory of AI search makes the move inevitable. The negotiations come as the broader publishing industry grapples with the rise of AI-generated content and the erosion of traditional search economics. Some publishers have pursued licensing deals with AI companies as a way to monetize their content directly. Others are exploring technical measures to block AI crawlers while allowing human users, though such approaches are difficult to enforce at scale. Google shares, which trade at about 22 times forward earnings, face an uncertain outlook if the company's search dominance is challenged by both publisher pushback and competing AI search products. Alphabet's $200 billion-plus search and ad business has been the primary driver of its $2 trillion market capitalization, and any sustained erosion of search quality or publisher relationships could pressure that valuation. Google did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Reddit and Politico declined to comment on the discussions. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.