

Major US banks are returning to commercial real estate lending, reversing a multiyear pullback that followed investor warnings of a wave of defaults across office and multifamily properties. "The disruption in our local marketplace remains very high, and the environment for our organic growth strategy as it relates to acquiring clients and bankers continues to be very attractive," said Stuart Lubow, chief executive officer of Dime Commercial Bancshares, on the bank's second-quarter earnings call Wednesday. Dime Commercial posted record second-quarter revenue of $126 million, above the $123.46 million consensus estimate, as business loans grew 26% year over year to about $743 million. The bank's net interest margin expanded for a ninth consecutive quarter to 328 basis points, and its efficiency ratio fell below 50% for the first time. Western Alliance Bancorporation, which reported results a day earlier, posted $995.7 million in revenue, beating the $980.53 million forecast, with commercial and industrial loans accounting for more than 80% of its $1.8 billion in quarterly held-for-investment loan growth. The shift marks a notable departure from 2023 and 2024, when most large US lenders tightened underwriting standards and reduced CRE exposure amid rising vacancy rates and higher borrowing costs. The last time a comparable rotation into CRE lending occurred was in late 2021, when low interest rates and strong property valuations drove a surge in origination volumes that peaked at about $700 billion in aggregate CRE loan originations across US banks, according to Federal Reserve data. That cycle ended abruptly after the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, pushing the average CRE loan delinquency rate to a peak of 1.6% by mid-2024. Dime Commercial said its loan pipeline stands at about $1.4 billion with a weighted average rate of 6.25%, and that it expects to resume share repurchases in the third quarter after reducing its commercial real estate concentration ratio to about 350%. Western Alliance lowered its full-year loan growth target to $5 billion from $6 billion, redirecting capital toward $150 million in planned buybacks in the second half of 2026, while maintaining a CET1 ratio of 11%. The renewed appetite for CRE lending reflects a broader stabilization in property markets. Office vacancy rates in major metropolitan areas have plateaued near 20%, according to Moody's Analytics, while multifamily rents have resumed growth after a two-year slowdown. Dime Commercial said its non-performing assets fell 28% from the prior quarter, though it took a $6 million specific provision on about $27 million in multifamily loans nearing 90 days past due. Western Alliance reported that two of six previously disclosed non-accrual loans had been resolved, with the remaining four on track for resolution in the second half of the year. For regional banks, the return to CRE lending carries both opportunity and risk. A net interest margin of 328 basis points means Dime Commercial earns $3.28 for every $100 in interest-earning assets, a level that becomes more valuable as loan volumes expand. But the provision for credit losses at Dime Commercial rose to about $14 million in the quarter, and the bank's allowance for credit losses reached 98 basis points of total loans, near the top of its 90-to-100-basis-point target range. Western Alliance's allowance stood at 89 basis points, with management expecting incremental increases as the loan mix shifts further toward C&I lending. The strategic calculus differs by institution. Dime Commercial, which rebranded from Dime Community Bank in June, is leaning into its transformation from a legacy multifamily thrift to a diversified commercial lender, with more than 70% of deposits now coming from commercial and municipal customers. Western Alliance is deliberately slowing balance-sheet growth to prioritize share repurchases, arguing its stock trades at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value. Both approaches reflect a shared conviction that the worst of the CRE downturn has passed — and that the banks best positioned to lend into the recovery will capture market share from competitors still on the sidelines. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Japanese government bonds edged lower in the morning Tokyo session, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys that pushed the benchmark 10-year yield to 4.628%, its highest level since January 2025. The 10-year JGB yield rose about 2 basis points in early trading, extending a global bond selloff driven by resilient U.S. economic data and fading expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The dollar index held near a one-week high at 101.20, while the yen remained under pressure at 163.06 per dollar. "The JGB move is a mechanical spillover from UST weakness rather than a shift in domestic rate expectations," said James Okafor, markets analyst at Edgen. "There is no domestic catalyst driving the selloff." The 10-year UST yield climbed 0.77% to 4.693% in the prior session, according to market data, while Brent crude settled at $91.24 on Middle East supply threats, adding to inflation concerns that complicate the Fed's path toward rate cuts. The S&P 500 snapped a three-day losing streak to close at 7,509, up 0.89%, as semiconductor stocks rebounded on strong Korean and Taiwanese export data, though the recovery in risk appetite did little to stem the bond selloff. The widening rate differential between the U.S. and Japan has been a primary driver of yen weakness, with the yen near a four-decade low that keeps alive the prospect of intervention by Japanese authorities. For Japan, the persistent rise in UST yields puts pressure on the Bank of Japan to consider further policy normalization at its next meeting, as global yields continue to climb and the cost of defending the yen floor rises. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

South Korea's KOSPI fell 3% and Japan's Nikkei 225 slid 2.5% on Thursday as a selloff in artificial intelligence-related stocks resumed across Asia, erasing gains from a brief recovery earlier this week. "The selloff is far steeper than what we're seeing in the U.S. market," said Yugo Tsuboi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities. "With South Korea's market closed for a holiday earlier this week, investors haven't been able to fully digest semiconductor-related concerns, so some may be using the Japanese market as a hedge instead." SK Hynix dropped more than 4% and Samsung Electronics fell over 3%, leading declines in Seoul. In Tokyo, semiconductor and AI-related stocks dragged the Nikkei lower, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street where the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.6% in futures trading. The KOSPI's decline pushed the benchmark back toward bear market territory after it had surged 5% on July 21 in its biggest single-day rebound from the AI selloff that began July 17, when the Nikkei plunged 5% to its lowest level since June 11. The renewed selling reflects persistent concerns that AI-related valuations have become stretched following a historic rally in the first half of the year, analysts said. Investors are also weighing the impact of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, which have pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel and added to uncertainty over the inflation outlook. The selloff in chip stocks has been broad-based: memory chipmaker Kioxia Holdings plunged 16% on July 17, while Murata Manufacturing lost nearly 12% and TDK fell over 6% during the initial rout. The Nikkei closed more than 10% below its June 25 peak on July 17, marking a technical correction. The latest declines come as traders await U.S. economic data and corporate earnings for further direction on the health of the global economy and the trajectory of interest rates. Federal Reserve officials have signaled they are in no rush to cut rates, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan saying Thursday that "modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks." This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.