

Bitcoin's Cycle Momentum indicator turned positive for the first time in eight months, a CryptoQuant on-chain signal that historically has marked the end of prolonged bear markets. "To confirm the reversal, the indicator needs to continue moving higher and reach the 20-30 level in the coming weeks," CryptoQuant analysts wrote in a Sept. 2 quicktake, cautioning that the current market structure remains mixed. The flip follows Bitcoin's surge from $62,000 to $81,000 in August, which pulled the market out of a months-long slump. Wallets holding at least 100 BTC added roughly 60,000 coins during the month, while investors holding less than 100 BTC sold a combined 47,000, according to CryptoQuant data. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their strongest weekly inflows in 10 months, and more than $470 million in USDC flowed into major exchanges. The signal challenges the view that institutional inflows had rendered Bitcoin's four-year cycle obsolete. Skeptics who argued that ETF-era capital had flattened the halving-driven rhythm have been shown wrong on this reading, and cycle-following traders are returning to the market. ## STH Profit-Taking Pressures the Rally Short-term holders complicate the picture. Analyst Darkfost flagged that this group realized average profits of up to 15 percent in August — above the roughly 11 percent seen during the all-time high — the highest level since October 2025. That profit-taking adds sell-side pressure that must be absorbed by fresh demand. Apparent demand, meanwhile, has deteriorated. The metric moved back into negative territory over recent days, Darkfost said, warning that without a rebound Bitcoin could enter a new leg down. Large holders, by contrast, are leaning into the recovery. Rather than selling, some have used their Bitcoin as collateral for loans to ride out the downturn, with the volume of such borrowing among big investors rising 18 percent on specialized platforms, per CryptoQuant. ## Support and the Confirmation Window Bitcoin traded near $77,341 at the time of writing, down 1.9 percent over 24 hours, after closing August at $78,581 on Binance. The key support zone sits around $69,000, the average price at which short-term investors bought their coins. If that level holds, a return to the broader bullish trend would be a matter of time, analysts said. The confirmation window is the coming weeks. If the Cycle Momentum indicator reaches 20-30 and apparent demand recovers, the bear-market reversal would be validated; if demand keeps sliding, the positive flip risks proving a false dawn. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Over 90,000 leveraged crypto positions were liquidated totaling $369.67 million on Sept. 2, CoinGlass data shows, as oil and Treasury yield surges fueled Fed rate hike expectations. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled last week the central bank is uncomfortable with the current pace of inflation, remarks traders read as pointing to a rate hike this month. Brent crude climbed more than 5 percent to about $95 a barrel after fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to roughly 4.8 percent, its highest level since January 2025. XRP, Ethereum, and Solana came under the heaviest selling pressure. Ethereum dropped under $2,400, while Bitcoin briefly fell below $77,000 before recovering toward $78,000. Watcher.Guru reported roughly $100 million was liquidated within 60 minutes during the sharpest leg of the decline. The S&P 500 fell 0.71 percent and the Nasdaq dropped about 1 percent as the risk-off move extended across asset classes. The cascade shows how macro repricing now dominates crypto price action. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, while a stronger inflation backdrop reduces expectations for easier monetary policy. The same forces that pressured the Nasdaq and other growth assets Tuesday are now flowing directly into crypto derivatives markets, where leveraged longs are the first to be flushed out when liquidity tightens. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $217 million on Aug. 31, reversing the prior session's outflow. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for $205.9 million of the total, following a nine-session buying streak that brought about $3 billion into Bitcoin funds during August. That institutional demand helped BTC gain roughly 24 percent last month, briefly pushing it above $81,000 before momentum cooled near $78,500. The divergence between ETF inflows and spot price weakness highlights a structural tension. While long-dated institutional buyers continue accumulating through funds, the derivatives market is repricing rapidly as macro conditions deteriorate. Higher energy costs feed directly into inflation expectations, and if the Fed responds with a hike, the opportunity cost of holding crypto rises further, potentially extending the deleveraging cycle. Traders now watch whether the Fed follows through on a rate increase at its September meeting. If Brent stays near $95 and Treasury yields remain elevated, ETF demand may not be enough to absorb further macro shocks, leaving leveraged positions across XRP, Ethereum, and Solana vulnerable to additional forced selling. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Bitcoin fell 1.02 percent to $76,800 on Sept. 2, breaking below $77,000 as a bond and equities sell-off pushed onchain demand negative. Darkfost, a pseudonymous analyst who tracks Bitcoin onchain flows, said the apparent demand metric reversed again after a brief recovery in August, with profit-taking by short-term holders — investors who acquired BTC within the past 155 days — outpacing new buying interest. The analyst cautioned that if demand does not recover soon, Bitcoin could face another leg down, potentially revisiting price ranges not seen in recent weeks. The onchain apparent demand metric estimates the net change in Bitcoin holdings among long-term investors. A negative reading indicates that selling pressure from short-term holders is exceeding new accumulation, often pointing to weakening market momentum. The latest reading follows a period in August when Bitcoin rebounded roughly 30 percent from its lows, though spot volume during that recovery hit a three-year low, according to data cited by BitcoinWorld. Notably, the number of Bitcoin wallets holding at least $1 million surged by 11,636 in August as large holders returned, yet that accumulation has not been enough to offset short-term selling pressure. The macro backdrop is dominated by a bond market sell-off that has pushed yields higher and pressured equities, creating risk-off conditions that typically weigh on speculative assets. Rising bond yields threaten to push up US borrowing costs, according to analysts cited by MSN. Bitcoin, which has increasingly traded in correlation with risk assets, has not been immune to this dynamic. Bitcoin's total market capitalization stands at $2.68 trillion, down 1.05 percent in the past 24 hours, while BTC dominance sits at 57.35 percent, according to CryptoRank data. Ethereum dominance is 10.84 percent. Total 24-hour spot volume across the market reached $33.3 billion, down 2.91 percent. For traders, the key question is whether Bitcoin can hold its current support zone near $77,000 and whether the apparent demand metric shows signs of improvement in the coming days. A sustained recovery in demand could indicate that selling pressure is exhausting, while continued negative readings might confirm a deeper correction. Onchain metrics should be weighed alongside technical analysis, trading volumes, and macroeconomic data releases that could influence liquidity conditions. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.