Edgen AI operates independently of, and is not controlled by Aspen Digital Financial Limited.
PortfolioInvestment Ideas
Personal
Agentic Execution
Aura Leaderboard
Rebate
Edgen Crypto·Jul 17 2026, 09:57
Bitcoin's short-term holder realized price dropped to $69,000, crossing below the adjusted long-term holder cost basis in a pattern that has preceded the final stage of bear markets in prior cycles. "The end of the bear market is approaching," a CryptoQuant analyst said, noting the signal is defined by the downward crossover of the short-term and long-term holder cost basis with a three-day confirmation window to validate the reading. The short-term holder cost basis has declined from $112,500 to $69,000, reflecting Bitcoin acquired within the past six months changing hands at lower prices. The adjusted long-term holder calculation excludes coins held for more than seven years to limit the influence of dormant supply on the metric. The crossover does not confirm an immediate price bottom — Bitcoin could remain volatile or trade lower before a sustained recovery develops. The signal instead marks the start of a late-stage accumulation period where dollar-cost averaging may be appropriate, the analyst said. ## What the Crossover Means The signal has appeared in prior Bitcoin cycles with a consistent sequence: a downward crossover of the STH and LTH cost basis, followed later by an upward crossover that confirmed bull-market phases. The interval between the two signals shows that Bitcoin can remain in a transitional phase for an extended period after the initial signal fires. Under the analyst's framework, a confirmed bull market would require the short-term holder cost basis to rise back above the adjusted long-term holder level. That upward crossover would suggest recently acquired Bitcoin is changing hands at progressively higher average prices — a dynamic observed at the start of prior uptrends. ## Price Action and Macro Context Bitcoin traded at $62,800 as of 14:30 UTC on Friday, down 2.9 percent over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. The leading cryptocurrency has failed to reclaim its 50-day moving average after a brief rally earlier this week, keeping the broader downtrend intact since June. Support sits near $61,000 and $59,000, with the lower boundary of the current range near $56,000. The on-chain signal arrives against a mixed macro backdrop. BlackRock Chief Executive Officer Larry Fink said Bitcoin appears "stable" at current levels due to reduced leverage among market participants, describing the next 12 months as "very optimistic" for global markets. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, has paused Bitcoin purchases for three weeks and said it will only resume buying once its preferred shares recover to par value of $100. Glassnode data shows the proportion of long-term investors selling at a loss has stopped rising, which the analytics firm described as an early sign that the sell-off may be nearing its end. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**Solana is trading in a tight range near $75 even as on-chain data shows rising stablecoin liquidity and growing institutional interest in a potential spot ETF.** Solana traded at $75.44 as of Friday, July 19, up 0.41% in 24 hours, with on-chain indicators pointing to rising USDC liquidity and a building spot ETF narrative that has yet to translate into price momentum. "The divergence between range-bound price action and network-level momentum suggests institutional positioning is happening beneath the surface," Jason Wu, on-chain analyst at Edgen, said. Circle added roughly $500 million in USDC supply on Solana, a move traders interpret as capital positioned for settlement and DeFi activity rather than directional speculation. The network processed more than 1 billion non-vote transactions in the week ending July 6, according to network data, while DEX volume on Solana reached $1.55 billion over the past 24 hours — the highest among major blockchains during the period. The $74 support level remains the key line in the sand. A break below that opens the door toward the high-$60s, while a reclaim of $76.50 could trigger short-covering toward $78 to $80. The next major catalyst is the potential approval of a Solana spot ETF, which market participants expect could draw institutional capital into the ecosystem. ## USDC Inflows Signal Growing Demand for Settlement Liquidity The $500 million USDC issuance by Circle on Solana follows a broader trend of rising stablecoin supply on the network. Larger USDC float typically translates into deeper on-chain liquidity for swaps, lending markets, and payment flows — areas where Solana has positioned itself as a high-throughput alternative to Ethereum. Real-world asset inflows on Solana have also accelerated, with roughly $900 million in RWA-related capital entering the ecosystem over the past 30 days, according to CryptoRank data. ## Whale Exodus Adds a Cautionary Note Not all on-chain signals are bullish. Glassnode data shows Solana whale wallets have declined 3.6% since May, with more than 200 large holders reducing positions. The selling pressure from meme-coin launchpad Pump.fun has also weighed on sentiment — the platform sent roughly 4.81 million SOL to Kraken between January 2024 and July 2026, cashing out an estimated $812 million in fee revenue at an average price of $168.70 per SOL, more than double current levels. Still, the network's development roadmap remains active. The Alpenglow consensus upgrade, targeting transaction finality of roughly 150 milliseconds, is expected in late August 2026, while Jump Crypto's Firedancer client continues to strengthen throughput and resilience. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
**Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's claim that Bitcoin bottomed at $60,000 faces pushback from on-chain data and community polls that suggest the market has not yet found a floor.** Bitcoin traded at $62,340 as of 14:30 UTC, down 3.2% over the past 24 hours, after Armstrong said on July 19 that the asset's price floor is $60,000 based on historical halving cycle patterns. The Coinbase chief executive did not provide on-chain data to support the call, instead attributing the view to Bitcoin's four-year supply reduction schedule. "Bitcoin's bottom is in at $60,000 based on halving cycles," Armstrong said in a social media post. The statement comes roughly 15 months after the April 2024 halving, which cut the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC. With 639 days remaining in the current epoch, the cycle is slightly past its midpoint according to historical precedent. On-chain data tells a more cautious story. The realized price — the average acquisition cost of all coins in circulation — currently stands at $53,000, according to Glassnode. In every prior bear market, Bitcoin has fallen below this level before beginning a new uptrend, PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, noted in a separate analysis. PlanB maintained his forecast that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 to $1 million during this cycle, with an average target near $500,000, but acknowledged that a new local low remains possible before the next leg higher. **Community polls and prediction markets signal skepticism** A poll conducted by Armstrong himself drew a predominantly bearish response, with the majority of respondents indicating they do not believe the bottom has been reached. Prediction markets reflect similar caution: the contract for Bitcoin reaching $65,000 by July 2026 shows 84% support for a YES outcome, according to Vera data, but confidence drops sharply at higher levels. The market for a $67,500 price target sits at 48% YES, while the $82,500 target commands just 1% support. The divergence between Armstrong's bullish call and market pricing highlights a broader tension in crypto markets. While the CEO's position carries weight given Coinbase's role as the largest US exchange by volume, traders appear to be weighing macro headwinds — including the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory and persistent inflation — against the structural scarcity narrative that underpins halving cycle theories. **What a $60,000 floor would mean for the market** If $60,000 holds as a support level, it would represent a roughly 52% drawdown from Bitcoin's all-time high above $126,000 recorded earlier in this cycle. That would be shallower than the 77% peak-to-trough decline seen in the 2021-2022 cycle and the 84% drop during the 2017-2018 bear market, suggesting diminishing volatility across successive cycles — a pattern Armstrong may be relying on. However, open interest across major derivatives exchanges stands at $28.4 billion, with funding rates hovering near neutral at +0.003%, according to Coinglass. A shift to negative funding would signal that short sellers are gaining conviction, potentially drawing price toward the realized price level of $53,000 before any sustainable recovery can take hold. The coming weeks will test whether Armstrong's psychological floor at $60,000 can withstand the macro pressures that have kept Bitcoin range-bound since its local high. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30 and the July nonfarm payrolls release on Aug. 1 represent the nearest catalysts that could break the current stalemate. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
