

The Smarter Web Company sold 177.89 Bitcoin at $65,762 each to repay an $11.7 million convertible note early, a transaction that reduced Bitcoin per share by 6.18% despite eliminating 7.7 million potential shares. "The conversion price had not been met, and management chose to simplify the capital structure," CEO Andrew Webley said on X, describing the instrument as more akin to debt than equity in the company's treasury analytics. The UK-listed firm held 2,878 BTC before the July 23 repayment and now holds 2,700.11 BTC, a 6.18% decline. The Smarter Convert instrument, launched in August 2025 with a $21 million subscription, gave TOBAM Group the option to convert at £2.0475 per share — about seven times the current 29.20p market price — or take settlement in Bitcoin or fiat. SWC chose to repay in cash, extinguishing the claim two weeks before its Aug. 5 maturity. The repayment removed a Bitcoin-linked obligation but left the company with a tougher capital-allocation test. SWC's existing $30 million Coinbase facility carries no fixed maturity but is secured against Bitcoin, meaning a material price decline could require additional collateral. The company's mNAV of roughly 1.06 times leaves a narrow cushion for any equity raise before dilution enters the BTC-per-share calculation. On a per-share basis, the math was negative under both relevant denominators. Gross Bitcoin exposure fell 6.18% per legally issued share to 725.90 sats, and 4.17% per management-defined fully diluted share to 750.41 sats, according to CryptoSlate calculations. The company's own Quarterly Gross BTC Yield for the third quarter came in at negative 4.35%, which Webley attributed primarily to the convert repayment. The original structure required at least 98% of the subscription proceeds to be deployed into Bitcoin, and SWC deployed 100%. The repayment therefore corresponded to the full 177.89 BTC acquired with the instrument. SWC sold those coins and paid $11,698,540 in cash rather than transferring Bitcoin in kind. The next challenge for SWC is replacing the capital. Equity works best for a Bitcoin treasury company when shares can be sold at a sufficient premium to the Bitcoin value per share. Near or below net asset value, issuance can increase nominal Bitcoin while reducing exposure per share. Recent examples in the sector — including a B Treasury Capital preferred-share offering that left 47.7% of its shares unfilled and Satsuma's proposed Bitcoin sale and delisting — illustrate the pressure on treasury wrappers to find efficient financing. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

XRP traded at $1.13 as of 14:30 UTC on July 23, holding above a multi-year breakout level that a veteran analyst said could fuel a rally to $6.40 in the near term and $30 over the long run. "The breakout retest is complete — holding $0.85 to $0.88 is the key," Egrag Crypto, a technical analyst with more than 100,000 followers on X, said. "Reclaiming $1.23 and $1.65 opens the path toward $3 to $3.50." The analyst identified the $0.85-$0.88 range as the critical support zone, encompassing the bottom of a multi-year symmetrical triangle, the White Bridge pattern, and the expected retest level. Sustained monthly closes below that range would invalidate the bullish setup. On the upside, the first measured-move target sits at $6.40, with a macro projection of $30 contingent on acceptance above prior highs. The bullish structure is reinforced by on-chain data showing whale accumulation accelerating and XRPL daily payments exceeding 500,000 transactions. However, XRP ETF inflows have cooled from a $131.94 million peak in May to just $12.43 million so far in July, signaling that institutional demand may be fading even as retail and whale activity strengthens. **Golden Cross and Cup-and-Handle Bolster Technical Setup** XRP's price action has produced two bullish chart patterns in recent weeks. A golden cross formed when the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, a signal historically associated with improving medium-term momentum. Separately, a cup-and-handle pattern has been developing since early July, with the handle forming as XRP consolidates near $1.13. The 20-day exponential moving average sits at $1.11130, providing immediate support, while the 50-day EMA at $1.14479 acts as nearby resistance. Bollinger Bands place the middle band at $1.11091 and the upper band at $1.16209, suggesting a breakout above $1.16 could accelerate buying pressure. On the downside, a drop below $1.13 exposes $1.12, then the $1.09 support zone. **Whale Accumulation Offsets Cooling ETF Demand** On-chain data reveals a notable shift in holder behavior. Whale selling pressure has dropped to its lowest level since 2025, according to blockchain metrics, while large holders have been increasing their XRP positions. XRPL daily payment activity has climbed above 500,000 transactions, marking one of the strongest levels of network utilization in recent months. The divergence between on-chain strength and institutional flows presents a mixed picture. XRP ETF inflows have declined for three consecutive months, from $131.94 million in May to $59.46 million in June and $12.43 million in July, per available fund data. The Hodler Net Position Change metric, which tracks whether long-term holders are adding or trimming coins, has also turned lower since July 19, easing from about 231 million to roughly 226 million XRP. **Key Levels to Watch** XRP's immediate hurdle sits at $1.15, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A clean break above that level would put the cup neckline near $1.16 in play, with $1.18 and $1.21 opening up as the next targets. Above those, the analyst-identified levels of $1.23 and $1.65 represent the next major resistance zones before the $3.00 to $3.50 range. On the downside, a sustained move below $1.13 exposes $1.12, then the $1.09 support. A fall below $1.05 would void the cup-and-handle pattern entirely. The $0.85 to $0.88 range remains the ultimate support floor for the macro breakout thesis. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Bitcoin rose 13% from its July low of $57,750 to trade at $65,674 as of 14:30 UTC, outpacing the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index by roughly 25 percentage points this month. "The relative strength is improving, European fiscal concerns are mounting, and enthusiasm around parts of the AI trade is fading — that's a more constructive setup for Bitcoin," Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said in a CNBC interview Thursday. Bitcoin's 30-day options delta skew on Deribit has narrowed to 13% from 19% a week earlier, indicating reduced demand for downside hedges, while perpetual futures funding rates have held at a neutral 8% annualized, according to Laevitas data. Open interest stands at $111 billion with 24-hour trading volumes of $147 billion, Coinglass data shows. The decoupling from tech stocks comes as the Nasdaq-100 fell below 28,800 last week for the first time in five weeks, while the US five-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.33%, pressuring growth stocks. Sigel sees a path for Bitcoin back to $100,000, a level last tested in October 2025 before the asset fell nearly 50% to its current range. **Semiconductor weakness fuels rotation trade** The SOXX has underperformed Bitcoin by roughly 25 percentage points in July as investors rotated out of AI-exposed names amid concerns over excessive valuations in the sector. Shares of memory-chip makers and AI infrastructure plays have declined, with the sell-off accelerating after a string of earnings that failed to justify elevated price multiples. Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, raised $263 million in cash last week through an at-the-money stock offering, bringing its reserves to $3.22 billion, according to company filings. The move eased concerns that the firm might need to sell Bitcoin to meet its $1.76 billion annual dividend obligation to preferred perpetual equity shareholders. **Key levels and the Fed catalyst** Bitcoin faces immediate resistance between $67,000 and $68,000, with a breakout above that zone opening a path toward $70,000 to $72,000 by month-end, according to Maxime Seiler, co-founder and CEO of STS Digital. On the downside, $64,000 serves as near-term support, with $60,000 representing the level "the market cares about," Seiler said. The Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting is the next major catalyst, with traders pricing in a potential rate decision that could resolve Bitcoin's current range-bound trading, Seiler added. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, identified $64,000 as support and $72,000 as resistance, noting these levels have been "reliable support and resistance levels during this bear market." Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has risen for five consecutive sessions, a pattern that has historically preceded price declines since the launch of spot ETFs, according to CryptoQuant data. However, the narrowing put-call skew suggests fear is gradually evaporating from the options market. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.